This study uses a Time-Varying Parameter Stochastic Volatility Vector Autoregression (TVP-SV-VAR) model to conduct an empirical analysis of the dynamic effects of China’s stock market volatility on the agricultural loan market and its channels. The results show that the relationship between stock market and agricultural loan market volatility is time varying and is always positive. The investor sentiment is a major conduit through which the effect takes place. This time-varying effect and transmission mechanism are most apparent between 2011 and 2017 and have since waned and stabilized. These have significant implications for the stable and orderly development of the agricultural loan market, highlighting the importance of the sound financial market system and timely policy, better market monitoring and early warning system and the formation of a mature and sound agricultural credit mechanism.

As a key factor in the macroeconomic process, the interaction between public confidence and the commodity market, especially its impact on commodity facilitation returns and macroeconomic linkages, is worth exploring in depth. This study adopts the TVP-SV-VAR model to analyze the causal linkages, dynamic characteristics, and mechanisms of the interaction, and reveals the following core findings: (1) The economic background and information shocks contribute to the variations in the effects and orientations of the economic variables, which highlight the time-varying nature of the economic interactions. (2) Consumer and investor confidence exert heterogeneous influence on the macroeconomy, and their different responses to the negative effect of interest rates and convenience gains are particularly significant in the post-crisis recovery period. (3) In the short-term perspective, the influence of public confidence on monetary policy and inflation exceeds that in the medium and long term, highlighting the immediate sensitivity of individual economic behavior. (4) Since 2015, accommodative monetary policy has accelerated market capital flows, delaying the interaction between confidence indices and inflation, revealing policy time lag effects. (5) Convenience gains exhibit complex time-varying interactions with key economic parameters (interest rates, commodity prices, and inflation), with 2011 and 2014 displaying particular patterns, mapping differences between short- and long-term mechanisms, respectively. The study highlights the central role of consumer and investor confidence in the precise tailoring of macroeconomic policies, providing a scientific basis for policy forecasting and economic regulation, and contributing to economic stability. Meanwhile, the dynamic evolution of consumer confidence deepens market trend foresight, enhances the precision of market participants’ decision-making, and reinforces the resilience and predictability of economic operations.

Pakistan is a leading emerging market as per the recent classification of the International Monetary Fund (MF), and hedging is used as a considerable apparatus for minimizing a firm’s risk in this market. In these markets, investors are customarily unaware about the hedging activities in firms, due to the occupancy of asymmetric environment prevailing in firms. This research paper adds a new insight and vision to the existing literature in the field of behavioral finance by examining the impact of hedging on investors’ sentiments in the presence of asymmetric information. For organizing this research, 366 non-financial firms are taken up as the size sample; all these firms are registered in the Pakistan Stock Exchange. A two-step system of generalized method of moments (GMM) model is implemented for regulating the study. The findings of empirical evidence exhibit that there is a positive relationship between investors’ sentiments and hedging. Investors’ sentiments are negative in relationship with asymmetric information. Due to the moderate presence of asymmetric information, hedging is positively related to investors’ sentiments although this relation is non-significant.