The objectives achieved in the Paris Agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and reduce dependence on fossil fuels have caused, in recent years, a growing importance on sustainability in companies in order to reduce Environmental, social and economic impacts. This study is focused on understanding how the variation in West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices affects the Dow Jones Sustainability Index, and therefore the companies included in it, and vice versa. The research aims to examine the statistical properties of both indices, using fractional integration methods, the fractional cointegration vector autoregressive (FCVAR) approach and the continuous wavelet transform (CWT) technique. The results warn of a change in trend, with the application of extraordinary measures being necessary to return to the original trend, while the analysis of cointegration and wavelet analysis measures reflect that an increase in those adopted based on sustainability by the different companies that make up the index imply a drop in the price of crude oil.
The impact of crude oil price fluctuations on the real effective exchange rate (REER) has been widely debated, but specific evidence, particularly for developing countries in Southeast Asia, is scarce and inconclusive. This issue, especially concerning both short- and long-term relationships, remains inadequately addressed, affecting these countries for risk management related to oil price fluctuations. This study aims to fill this gap by examining these relationships in Thailand context to provide more evidence on how the REER in Southeast Asia responds to changes in crude oil prices. Monthly data of crude oil prices in Dubai market and the Thai baht REER from 2000 to 2019 were employed. Johansen co-integration test and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) were used for analyzing long-term and short-term relationships, respectively. The results indicate a significant negative long-term relationship between crude oil prices and the REER, with a 0.31% reduction in the REER for every 1% increase in the real price of oil. However, in the short term, VECM analysis reveals significant movements in the REER in response to external shocks. On average from 2000–2019, the significant fluctuations in the REER are quickly alleviated and adjusted to its long-run equilibrium, typically by 2% in the following month following external shocks such as crude oil price fluctuations. Given these findings, which highlight the long-term relationship between the REER and crude oil prices and its short-term adjustment, it is suggested that when there is a shock from the crude oil prices, the government can strengthen short-term oil price controls or monetary subsidies to mitigate the extensive repercussions of energy market fluctuations, as such interventions would have a lesser impact on the long-term equilibrium of the REER.
Nowadays, more and more cars have begun to enter into innumerable families; the family car has become a necessity for Chinese households who have certain purchasing power. However, the ups and downs of oil prices have brought some impact on people's automobile consumption activities. Therefore, after collecting the information of the oil price and family car consumer, carried on through in-depth analysis of the relevant data with reasonable relationship, and then developed a suitable for China's national conditions and finished oil pricing model, thereby the National Development and Reform Commission have proposed the suggestion for China's refined oil pricing mechanisms and promoting the healthy development of new energy vehicles with specific measures. For question 1, through the problem analysis and information access, combined with the past and current situation of the domestic refined oil prices, we analyze the following seven factors: international crude oil prices, China's annual crude oil imports, China's annual crude oil exports, crude oil output in China, China's annual GDP per capita, China's annual consumption of crude oil, the total annual energy consumption in China, all have influence on China's refined oil prices. By monadic linear regression analysis, annual average prices of domestic refined oil products have a certain correlation with the various influencing factors, and then by multiple linear regression way eventually concluded the final relationship between oil prices and the influence factors, which compared with the current price, and make reasonable evaluation model. Through the establishment of various influencing factors and function of time, and using the evaluation model for refined oil product price to make reasonable forecast. According to this model, in order to predict refined oil product price as $122.15 per barrel in 2016. For question two, we basically sums up three key factor which influence the quantity of family vehicle: China's oil product prices, the annual GDP per capita, total road mileage. Through Excel to make the relationship curves of different quantity of family cars against influencing factors, and use Grey Forecasting method to forecast the quantity of family cars. And carries on the residual error test, it is used to conclude that the rationality of the model is highly. The number of private cars of the city of xi 'an is predicts that to 8.302 million vehicles by 2020. For question three, we discussed the relationship between international crude oil prices and domestic exports of crude oil export with domestic refined oil prices, through its multiple linear regressions to get the final pricing model. For question four, according to three previous established models, we proposed China's refined oil pricing mechanism proposal to the national development and Reform Commission: perfect price controls, deeper product market, and integration of resources consideration and environmental protection class tax types, adjust the consumption tax collection and Administration links, and improve the production cost accounting.
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