Loans are a critical transmission channel for commercial banks as well as an important revenue source. Macroeconomic factors are not within the control of commercial banks, however, select factors are observed to have a direct impact on lending behaviour in studies around the world. This study examined the relationship between macroeconomic variables and the lending behaviour of banks in South Africa for the period ranging from 2001 to 2022. Quarterly time series data was employed using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL). The empirical results of the paper revealed that there is a long-run relationship between the repurchase rate (repo rate), inflation, the real effective exchange rate (REER) and lending behaviour in South Africa. The REER and inflation were both found to have a positive relationship, whilst the repo rate had a negative relationship. In addition, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the activity rate and sovereign credit rating (SCR) changes returned insignificant results. Overall, these findings show that select macroeconomic factors do influence lending behaviour in South Africa. Furthermore, the results suggest that monetary policy decisions have a direct influential effect on lending and the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) has implemented their policies effectively.

This research analyzes the relationship between political stability, renewable energy utilization, economic progress, and tourism in Indonesia from 1990 to 2020. We employ advanced econometric techniques, including the Fourier Bootstrap Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach and Fourier Toda-Yamamoto causality testing, to ensure the robustness of our results while accounting for smooth structural changes in the data. The analysis uncovers a long-term equilibrium relationship between tourism and its fundamental determinants. Our research reveals significant positive impacts of political stability and renewable energy consumption on tourism in Indonesia. A stable political environment creates a favorable climate for tourism development, instilling confidence in both domestic and international tourists. Promoting renewable energy usage aligns with sustainable tourism practices, attracting environmentally conscious travelers. Furthermore, our findings demonstrate a bi-directional causal relationship between these variables over time. Changes in political stability, renewable energy consumption, and economic growth profoundly influence the tourism sector, while the growth of tourism itself can also stimulate economic development and foster political stability. Our findings underscore the need for environmentally sustainable and politically stable tourism policies. Indonesia’s tourism sector can grow sustainably with renewable energy and stability. Policymakers can develop strategies with tourism, political stability, renewable energy, and economic prosperity in mind.

Technological innovation allows nations to produce sophisticated products more efficiently and at higher quality to increase exports. Countries that aim to produce and export sophisticated products can improve their economic complexity and lead to the country’s economic development. Hence, the study investigates the impact of technological innovation on economic complexity in South Africa. Technological innovation, exports, and manufactured products were used as variables to examine South Africa’s economic complexity index. The study employed the ARDL method to determine the relationship among the variables. The ARDL F-bounds test reflected the long-run cointegration among the selected variables. The study produced long-run positive estimates of technological innovation, exports, and manufactured products on economic complexity, however, manufactured products and exports were insignificant. Granger causality indicated unidirectional causality on economic complexity to manufactured products, exports to technological innovation, and a bi-directional causal effect from exports to economic complexity and technological innovation to economic complexity. The study recommends that South Africa focus on innovation, create more diversified and sophisticated products and processes, and promote more manufacturing firms, particularly Agri-processed products.