The provision of infrastructure and related services in developing Asia via public–private partnership (PPP) increased rapidly during the late 1990s. Theoretical arguments support the potential economic benefits of PPPs, but empirical evidence is thin. This paper develops a framework identifying channels through which economic gains can be derived from PPP arrangement. The framework helps derive an empirically tractable specification that examines how PPPs affect the aggregate economy. Empirical results suggest that increasing the ratio of PPP investment to GDP improves access to and quality of infrastructure services, and economic growth will potentially be higher. But this optimism is conditional, especially on the region’s efforts to further upgrade its technical and institutional capacity to handle complex PPP contracts.

To analyze the effect of an increase in the quantity or quality of public investment on growth, this paper extends the World Bank’s Long-Term Growth Model (LTGM), by separating the total capital stock into public and private portions, with the former adjusted for its quality. The paper presents the LTGM public capital extension and accompanying freely downloadable Excel-based tool. It also constructs a new infrastructure efficiency index, by combining quality indicators for power, roads, and water as a cardinal measure of the quality of public capital in each country. In the model, public investment generates a larger boost to growth if existing stocks of public capital are low, or if public capital is particularly important in the production function. Through the lens of the model and utilizing newly-collated cross-country data, the paper presents three stylized facts and some related policy implications. First, the measured public capital stock is roughly constant as a share of gross domestic product (GDP) across income groups, which implies that the returns to new public investment, and its effect on growth, are roughly constant across development levels. Second, developing countries are relatively short of private capital, which means that private investment provides the largest boost to growth in low-income countries. Third, low-income countries have the lowest quality of public capital and the lowest efficient public capital stock as a share of GDP. Although this does not affect the returns to public investment, it means that improving the efficiency of public investment has a sizable effect on growth in low-income countries. Quantitatively, a permanent 1 ppt GDP increase in public investment boosts growth by around 0.1–0.2 ppts over the following few years (depending on the parameters), with the effect declining over time.

Objective: The influence of climate on forest stands cannot be ignored, but most of the previous forest stand growth models were constructed under the presumption of invariant climate and could not estimate the stand growth under climate change. The model was constructed to provide a theoretical basis for forest operators to take reasonable management measures for fir under the influence of climate. Methods: Based on the survey data of 638 cedar plantation plots in Hunan Province, the optimal base model was selected from four biologically significant alternative stand basal area models, and the significant climate factors without serious covariance were selected by multiple stepwise regression analysis. The optimal form of random effects was determined, and then a model with climatic effects was constructed for the cross-sectional growth of fir plantations. Results: Richards formula is the optimal form of the basic model of stand basal area growth. The coefficient of adjustment  was 0.8355; the average summer maximum temperature  and the water vapor loss  in Hargreaves climate affected the maximum and rate of fir stand stand growth respectively, and were negatively correlated with the stand growth. The adjusted coefficient of determination  of the fir stand area break model with climate effects was 0.8921, the root mean square error (RMSE) was 3.0792, and the mean relative error absolute value (MARE) was 9.9011; compared with the optimal base model,  improved by 6.77%, RMSE decreased by 19.04%, and MARE decreased by 15.95%. Conclusion: The construction of the stand cross-sectional area model with climate effects indicates that climate has a significant influence on stand growth, which supports the rationality of considering climate factors in the growth model, and it is important for the regional stand growth harvest and management of cedar while improving the accuracy and applicability of the model.