“inflation”Search All-EnPress Publisher LLC.

May 28, 2024

Indicators of banks and economic indicators on non-cash payments in ASEAN-7 countries

This research explores the intricate relationship between digitalization, economic development, and non-cash payments in the ASEAN-7 countries over a ten-year period from 2011 to 2020. Focusing on factors such as commercial bank branches, broad money, and inflation, the study employs panel data regression analysis to investigate their impact on automated teller machine (ATM) usage. The findings reveal that commercial bank branches significantly influence ATM usage, emphasizing the role of accessibility, services, and technological preferences. Broad money also shows a significant impact on ATM transactions, reflecting the interplay between fund availability and non-cash transactions. However, inflation does not exhibit a direct influence on ATM usage. The research underscores the importance of maintaining service quality and security in the banking sector to enhance digital financial inclusion. Future research opportunities include exploring diverse non-cash payment methods and extending studies to countries with significant global economic impacts. This research contributes valuable insights to policymakers aiming to enhance digital financial inclusion policies, ultimately fostering economic growth through the digital economy in the ASEAN-7 region.

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Jan 7, 2025

Old-new enemy on the horizon? New factors for measuring inflation in Visegrad countries consumer baskets

The impact of inflation on the economy cannot be ignored as it can affect it either positively or negatively. This is because inflation has a broad impact on the macroeconomy, such as economic growth, competitiveness and the distribution of wealth. Therefore, the way in which it is measured also requires particular attention. Our hypothesis is that the weights of the consumer baskets measuring inflation in the Central European countries (Visegrad countries: Poland, Slovakia, Czech Republic and Hungary) change dynamically under the influence of modern causes of inflation and we assume that the composition of the inflation baskets moves together due to the similar economic environment. The Visegrad countries (V4), consisting of Poland, Hungary, Czechia, and Slovakia, were selected for this study due to their unique position as a loose economic and political alliance within the European Union. While geographically close, these countries have different economic structures and policy responses, making them an interesting case for comparative analysis. Despite their proximity, it cannot be assumed that inflationary trends will develop similarly across these nations. This underexplored region presents an opportunity to examine how diverse macroeco-nomic factors shape inflation, adding valuable insights to the existing literature. In this study, we do not focus on comparing overall inflation trends between countries, but rather on examining the trends in the changes within the inflation baskets. The aim is to analyze how the composition of goods and services contributing to inflation shifts over time in each country, rather than simply looking at inflation rates. This approach allows us to explore deeper insights into the specific components driving inflationary pressures in the Visegrad countries, highlighting how the importance of certain goods and services evolves within the inflation basket across different economic environments. The weights of the consumer baskets measuring inflation are taken from the Inter-national Monetary Fund 2012–2022 data. We used the Kruskal-Wallis test to determine whether there are statistically significant differences between countries’ consumer basket weights. Our results suggest that the inflation baskets of the four countries do not move significantly together, so there are significant differences in consumption patterns across nations regardless of geographical proximity. Also, contrary to our preliminary expectations, global megatrends such as demographic change, digitalisation and climate change have not yet had a significant impact on the weightings in the consumption baskets of the V4 countries. Therefore, these will require increased attention and preparation in the near future, as even if prices remain unchanged, measured inflation could change significantly across countries as weights shift.

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13

Jun 25, 2024

Impact of exchange rates, Inflation, foreign direct investment, government spending, and economic openness on exports, imports, and economic growth in Indonesia

Globalization and economic integration have an impact on increasing trade volume and economic growth in various countries, especially those that are open in their economies. This situation also provides ease of capital mobility between countries, which makes investment not only rely on domestic investment but also on foreign direct investment. Exchange rates and inflation also affect export growth, imports, and economic growth. The purpose of this study is to determine the effect of exchange rate, inflation, foreign direct investment, government expenditure, and economic openness on export and import growth. This study used time series data during the period 1980–2021, sourced from UNCTAD, ASYB, and Indonesian Central Bank (BI). The analysis model used is multiple linear regression with the help of EViews software, which first tests classical assumptions so that the regression results are Best Linier Unbiased Estimator (BLUE). The results show that foreign direct investment and government spending can significantly increase the rate of exports and imports. Meanwhile, the depreciating rupiah against the US dollar cannot encourage an increase in both exports and imports. Furthermore, foreign direct investment, government spending, and economic openness can significantly increase economic growth. The other variables, net exports and inflation, have no effect on Indonesia’s economic growth rate.

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Aug 16, 2024

The relationship between stock market and inflation in the period of COVID-19 and Ukrainian war: Evidence from Greece

This study explores the interactions between inflation and stock market. We carried out a bibliometric analysis with R package to highlight the worldwide research trends in the field, covering the period of three crises (financial, health crisis and war of Ukraine). Next, using monthly data for the period from 1 March 2020 to 31 August 2023 and based on a vector autoregressive model, impulse response and variance decomposition are performed to explore the dynamic relationships between inflation and Greek stock market. The results reveal the existence of high volatility in Athens’ stock market during COVID-19 pandemic, owning to a shock of the inflation. Regarding the period of Ukrainian war, the study verified the Fama’s hypothesis that there is a negative relationship between inflation and stock returns. The findings have significant implications for investors and policy makers.

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11

Mar 20, 2025

Fiscal policy and inflation determinants in Tunisia: An ARDL model approach

This study examines the determinants of inflation in Tunisia from 1998 to 2023, with a particular focus on the role of fiscal policy. The study analyzes the long-run and short-run relationships between inflation and key macroeconomic variables, including government expenditure, government revenue, money supply, balance of trade, and budget deficits using ARDL model. The empirical findings reveal that budget deficits have a significant and positive impact on inflation, underscoring the critical role of fiscal imbalances in driving price instability. In contrast, government expenditure, government revenue, money supply, and balance of trade do not exhibit statistically significant long-term effects on inflation. The results highlight the importance of fiscal discipline and effective coordination between fiscal and monetary policies to achieve price stability. These findings provide valuable insights for policymakers in Tunisia and other developing economies facing similar inflationary pressures, emphasizing the need for prudent fiscal management and structural reforms to mitigate inflation volatility and ensure macroeconomic stability.

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Aug 22, 2024

Determining factors for tourist arrivals in Hungary

This methodologically focused study examines the relationships between inflation and unemployment rates, political stability, and tourism, with particular emphasis on the impacts on tourist arrivals in Hungary. The research aims to uncover the direct and indirect influences of these macroeconomic indicators on the volume of tourism, specifically international tourist arrivals. The significance of the study lies in the clear correlation between economic stability and labor market conditions with tourism volume, where rising inflation and unemployment rates negatively correlate with the number of tourist arrivals. This relationship is further strengthened by the observation that improvements in political stability enhance tourist numbers over the long term, while political instability, such as conflicts and terrorist acts, negatively affects tourism demand. These correlations are crucial for aligning tourism policy with economic policy, as macroeconomic indicators and the political environment directly influence both domestic and foreign tourists’ willingness to travel. The research methodology focuses on forecasting using Random Forest and neural networks, which enables more accurate predictions of tourism volume and supports informed tourism policy-making. The findings indicate that the development of the tourism sector is closely linked to economic growth and underscore the necessity of boosting tourism to expand employment and maintain economic stability.

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