Fire hazard is often mapped as a static conditional probability of fire characteristics’ occurrence. We developed a dynamic product for operational risk management to forecast the probability of occurrence of fire radiative power in the locally possible near-maximum fire intensity range. We applied standard machine learning techniques to remotely sensed data. We used a block maxima approach to sample the most extreme fire radiative power (FRP) MODIS retrievals in free-burning fuels for each fire season between 2001 and 2020 and associated weather, fuel, and topography features in northwestern south America. We used the random forest algorithm for both classification and regression, implementing the backward stepwise repression procedure. We solved the classification problem predicting the probability of occurrence of near-maximum wildfire intensity with 75% recall out-of-sample in ten annual test sets running time series cross validation, and 77% recall and 85% ROC-AUC out-of-sample in a twenty-fold cross-validation to gauge a realistic expectation of model performance in production. We solved the regression problem predicting FRP with 86% r² in-sample, but out-of-sample performance was unsatisfactory. Our model predicts well fatal and near-fatal incidents reported in Peru and Colombia out-of-sample in mountainous areas and unimodal fire regimes, the signal decays in bimodal fire regimes.

Land use changes have been demonstrated to exert a significant influence on urban planning and sustainable development, particularly in regions undergoing rapid urbanization. Tehran Province, as the political and economic capital of Iran, has undergone substantial growth in recent decades. The present study employs sophisticated Geographic Information System (GIS) instruments and the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform to comprehensively track and analyze land use change over the past two decades. A comprehensive analysis of Landsat images of the Tehran metropolitan area from 2003 to 2023 has yielded significant insights into the patterns of land use change. The methodology encompasses the utilization of GIS, GEE, and TerrSet techniques for image classification, accuracy assessment, and change detection. The Kappa coefficients for the maps obtained for 2016 and 2023 were 0.82 and 0.87 for four classes: built-up, vegetation cover, barren land, and water bodies. The findings suggest that, over the past two decades, Tehran Province has undergone a substantial decline in ecological and vegetative areas, amounting to 2.4% (458.3 km²). Concurrently, the urban area and the barren lands have expanded by 287.5 and 125.5 km², respectively. The increase in water bodies during this period is likely attributable to the reduction of vegetation cover and dam construction in the region. The present study demonstrates that remote sensing and GIS are excellent tools for monitoring environmental and sustainable urban development in areas experiencing rapid urbanization and land use changes.