This study evaluates the effectiveness of Indonesia’s defense industry policy from 2018 to 2023, focusing on PT Pindad, a pivotal state-owned defense enterprise. Using a Balanced Scorecard (BSC) framework, the study assesses PT Pindad’s performance across financial, customer, internal process, and learning and growth perspectives. The findings reveal strengths in financial stability (Current Ratio at 115.57% in 2023) and customer satisfaction, but challenges in Return on Investment (ROI), which fell from 6% in 2022 to 5.46% in 2023, signaling a need for further internal improvements. A mediation analysis using Shape-Restricted Regression indicates that Research and Development (R&D) serves as a crucial mediator, enhancing the impact of strategic alliances and technology transfer on PT Pindad’s self-reliance, with R&D showing a positive coefficient of β = 0.53 (p < 0.01). The systematic literature review complements these findings, underscoring the role of technology transfer, human capital development, and strategic partnerships as essential components for strengthening PT Pindad’s self-reliance and global competitiveness. Recommendations are made to enhance policy effectiveness by fostering robust technology transfer mechanisms, increasing investment in human capital, and expanding strategic partnerships. This research contributes to the literature on defense industry policies by providing a comprehensive evaluation framework that informs future policy decisions.