This research aims to assess the impact of bargaining power on budget implementation while also considering the deviation in capital expenditure as a moderating factor. The research sample included 34 provincial governments in Indonesia between 2019 and 2022. The sample determination method used purposive sampling, so the final sample size was 134 observations. The research employed panel data regression to test the hypotheses and continued with the Chow, Lagrange multiplier, and Hausman tests. The study results indicate that bargaining power has a positive and significant effect on budget implementation, with the deviation in capital expenditure not diminishing its impact. The research’s practical implication is that regional governments must effectively manage their revenues to finance regional spending needs through regional tax intensification and extensification policies. The study contributes to signaling theory by highlighting that regional governments can finance regional spending needs through fiscal independence and society’s involvement. It also contributes to agency theory by demonstrating that capital expenditure deviation in the form of information asymmetry in regional governments does not reduce their ability to finance regional expenditure needs. Nonetheless, the study suggests that the proxies used in this research are limited, and further exploration of other proxies to measure tested variables. This research provides new knowledge for stakeholders regarding the dynamics of regional budgeting, especially regarding assessing the impact of bargaining power on budget implementation and considering deviations in capital expenditure as a moderating factor.

The allocation of funds in the local budget is a matter of concern for the governments and economic scholars. The study examines the influence of local budget expenditures on the GRDP per capita of 63 provinces and municipalities in Vietnam from 2018 to 2022. Regression analysis of panel data reveals that capital expenditure has a positive correlation with local GRDP per capita, whereas current expenditure has a negative correlation with GRDP per capita. Furthermore, the analysis indicates that the percentage of individuals aged 15 and above who are employed and the percentage of urban citizens have an equivalent influence as the GRDP per capita. Conversely, the average age and local Gini coefficient have contrasting effects on GRDP per capita. The author suggests several policy alternatives to assist localities in boosting their GRDP per capita based on the findings of the study model.