COVID-19 and the economic response have amplified and changed the nature of development challenges in fundamental ways. Global development cooperation should adapt accordingly. This paper lays out the urgency for new methods of development cooperation that can deliver resource transfers at scale, oriented to addressing climate change and with transparency and better governance. It looks at what is actually happening to major donor countries’ development cooperation programs and where the principal gaps lie, and offers some thoughts on how to move forward, notwithstanding the clear geopolitical rivalries that are evident.
The most immediate challenge is to provide a level of liquidity support to countries ravaged by the global economic downturn. Many developing countries will see double-digit declines in GDP, with some recording downturns not seen in peacetime. Alongside the short-term challenge of recovery, COVID-19 has laid bare longer-term trends that have pointed for some time to the lack of sustainability—environmental, social, and governance—in the way economic development was occurring in many places, including in advanced economies. This new landscape has significant implications for development cooperation in terms of scale, development/climate co-benefits, and transparency and accountability.

This study investigates the link between debt and political alignment in international relations between the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and African nations. Using recorded roll-call votes on United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) resolutions, we explore whether PRC investment in sovereign debt influences the voting behaviour of loan recipient countries. We compile voting data for African countries from 2000 to 2020 to calculate an annual voting affinity score as a proxy for political alignment. Concurrently, data on Chinese public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) loans to African governments are collected. A Two-Stage Least-Squares analysis is employed, using the ratio of Chinese PPG debt to GDP as an instrument to address endogeneity. Results reveal a negative impact of Chinese lending on African political support, while trade, foreign direct investment (FDI), and Chinese GDP positively influence political alignment. In high debt-risk African countries, interest rates have a negative impact, whereas loan maturity shows a positive effect. These findings suggest that Chinese loans, particularly under commercial terms, may have strained bilateral relations due to debt sustainability concerns. Nevertheless, the positive impacts of trade and FDI may enhance international relations, highlighting the limitations of China’s loan diplomacy in fostering long-term strategic alignment in Africa.