The initiation of tapering, sparked by heightened inflation in the United States, reverberates across global markets, with notable implications for Indonesia. This study delved into the nuanced impact of tapering on Sharia-compliant stocks in both Indonesia and Malaysia. The rationale behind selecting Sharia stocks for analysis lies in their composition, featuring companies boasting low debt-to-asset and equity ratios, thereby positing robust resilience in the face of the Federal Reserve’s implementation of tapering. Employing a time series dataset with a weekly sampling period spanning from January to September 2022, the analysis adopted the Error Correction Model (ECM) within a multiple regression framework to circumvent potential spurious regression pitfalls. The results of this study indicate that the impact of tapering off policy in Indonesia has a positive impact in the short term and long term, while in Malaysia it tends to be insignificant in the short term and has a positive impact from the US 10-year bond yield variable and a negative impact from US 1-Year Treasury Bills. This result is interesting because it differs from the general theory. The causal factors include the agility of the Indonesian central bank in maintaining the benchmark interest rate spread with the Fed, the economic stability of both countries, and the increasing trend of coal, with Indonesia being one of the largest producers of the commodity. Investors, in navigating these intricate dynamics, may find strategic insights derived from this research invaluable for shaping their investment decisions. while government policymakers may use them as a reference for shaping policies related to Sharia stock investments, including the incorporation of artificial intelligence.
The study examines the impact of COVID-19 on the economies of Gulf Corporation Council (GCC) member states. The event study methodology was used to analyze Cumulative Abnormal Return (CAR) of GCC member states’ stock indexes: Kuwait Stock Exchange Index (KSE), Dubai Financial Market Index (DFM), Saudi Arabia Tadawul Index (TASI), Qatar Exchange Index (QE), Bahrain All Share Index (BHB), Oman’s Muscat Stock Exchange Index (MSM), Abu Dhabi Stock Exchange Index (ADX) while the S&P GCC Composite Index was used as a reference. Data obtained from 28 July 2019 to 27 July 2020, and 1 March 2020, designated as the event day, abnormal returns (AR) and cumulative average abnormal returns (CAARs) were examined across various time intervals. The findings reveal significant market reactions to the pandemic, characterized by fluctuations in abnormal returns and CAARs. Statistically significant abnormal returns and CAARs during certain time periods underscore the dynamic nature of market responses to the COVID-19 event. These results provide valuable insights for policymakers and market participants seeking to understand and navigate the economic implications of the pandemic on GCC economies. The study recommends that other GCC states, particularly Oman, consider the policies undertaken by Qatar, UAE, and Saudi Arabia, to avoid a long economic crisis.
This study explores the interactions between inflation and stock market. We carried out a bibliometric analysis with R package to highlight the worldwide research trends in the field, covering the period of three crises (financial, health crisis and war of Ukraine). Next, using monthly data for the period from 1 March 2020 to 31 August 2023 and based on a vector autoregressive model, impulse response and variance decomposition are performed to explore the dynamic relationships between inflation and Greek stock market. The results reveal the existence of high volatility in Athens’ stock market during COVID-19 pandemic, owning to a shock of the inflation. Regarding the period of Ukrainian war, the study verified the Fama’s hypothesis that there is a negative relationship between inflation and stock returns. The findings have significant implications for investors and policy makers.
Given the importance of Information Communication Technology (ICT) in stimulating stock market development, many researchers have investigated their influences on the developed markets and high-income economies. The aim of this study is to examine the impact of ICT diffusion on stock market development for a panel of 17 selected emerging countries over the period 1990–2020 and employed the system-generalized method of moments (S-GMM) to test its objective. Three stock market development indicators are also used, namely: stock market capitalization (SMC), stock market total value traded (SMTT), and stock market turnover (SMT). Three ICT indicators are also employed, namely: Fixed telephone subscriptions (FTS), Individuals using the Internet (IUI), and Mobile cellular subscriptions (MCS). Three financial development indicators (deposit money among bank assets (DMB), liquid liabilities (LLB), and private credit by deposit money bank (PCM)) were employed as control variables. In its findings, all selected ICT dynamics positively affect stock market development and its constituents. Secondly, no proof was confirmed in relation to the impact of fixed telephone and stock market development with its elements. Thirdly, evidence of a positive relationship is sparingly apparent in financial development and its components. Fourthly, compared with fixed telephone, internet users more positively and significantly affect stock market development indicators. Policy implications are discussed.
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