The COVID-19 crisis, which occurred in 2020, brought crisis events back to the attention of scholars. With the increasing frequency of crisis events, the influence of crisis events on stock markets has become more obvious. This paper focuses on the impact of the subprime crisis, the Chinese stock market crash crisis and the COVID-19 crisis on the volatility and risk of the world’s major stock markets. In this paper, we first fit the volatility using EGARCH model and detect asymmetry of volatility. After that, a VaR model is calculated on the basis of EGARCH to measure the impact of the crisis event on the risk of stock markets. This paper finds that the subprime crisis has a significant influence on the risk of the stock market in China, US, South Korea, and Japan. During the COVID-19 crisis, there was little change in the average risk of each country. But at the beginning of the COVID-19 crisis, there was a significant increase in the risk of each country’s stock market. The Chinese stock market crash crisis had a more pronounced effect on the Chinese and Japanese stock markets and a lesser effect on the US and Korean stock markets.
This study uses a Time-Varying Parameter Stochastic Volatility Vector Autoregression (TVP-SV-VAR) model to conduct an empirical analysis of the dynamic effects of China’s stock market volatility on the agricultural loan market and its channels. The results show that the relationship between stock market and agricultural loan market volatility is time varying and is always positive. The investor sentiment is a major conduit through which the effect takes place. This time-varying effect and transmission mechanism are most apparent between 2011 and 2017 and have since waned and stabilized. These have significant implications for the stable and orderly development of the agricultural loan market, highlighting the importance of the sound financial market system and timely policy, better market monitoring and early warning system and the formation of a mature and sound agricultural credit mechanism.
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