To analyze the effect of an increase in the quantity or quality of public investment on growth, this paper extends the World Bank’s Long-Term Growth Model (LTGM), by separating the total capital stock into public and private portions, with the former adjusted for its quality. The paper presents the LTGM public capital extension and accompanying freely downloadable Excel-based tool. It also constructs a new infrastructure efficiency index, by combining quality indicators for power, roads, and water as a cardinal measure of the quality of public capital in each country. In the model, public investment generates a larger boost to growth if existing stocks of public capital are low, or if public capital is particularly important in the production function. Through the lens of the model and utilizing newly-collated cross-country data, the paper presents three stylized facts and some related policy implications. First, the measured public capital stock is roughly constant as a share of gross domestic product (GDP) across income groups, which implies that the returns to new public investment, and its effect on growth, are roughly constant across development levels. Second, developing countries are relatively short of private capital, which means that private investment provides the largest boost to growth in low-income countries. Third, low-income countries have the lowest quality of public capital and the lowest efficient public capital stock as a share of GDP. Although this does not affect the returns to public investment, it means that improving the efficiency of public investment has a sizable effect on growth in low-income countries. Quantitatively, a permanent 1 ppt GDP increase in public investment boosts growth by around 0.1–0.2 ppts over the following few years (depending on the parameters), with the effect declining over time.
This paper assesses South Africa’s massive infrastructure drive to revive growth and increase employment. After years of stagnant growth, this is now facing a deep economic crisis, exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic. This drive also comes after years of weak infrastructure investment, widening the infrastructure deficit. The plan outlines a R1 trillion investment drive, primarily from the private sector through the Infrastructure Fund over the next 10 years (Government of South Africa, 2020). This paper argues that while infrastructure development in South Africa is much-needed, the emphasis on de-risking for private sector buy-in overshadows the key role the state must play in leading on structurally transforming the economy.
Micro-mobility has the potential to address first -mile challenges, improving transit accessibility and encouraging public transit usage. However, users’ acceptability of modal integration between various micro-mobility options and public transit remains largely unexplored in the literature. Our study investigates the user behavior for first-mile options, focusing on four alternatives: walking, bicycling, motorcycling, and bus, to access urban mass rapid transit (UMRT) in Hanoi, Vietnam. Based on data collected from 1380 individuals, a Nested Logit Model (NLM) was proposed to analyze the determinants of users’ acceptability under each access mode option as well as evaluate further impacts of shifts in access mode choice on vehicle-kilometer traveled and emissions. The analysis shows that the availability of access modes might increase UMRT use by 47.83%. While this increase further generates additional vehicle-kilometer traveled due to the increase in park-and-ride users, this is offset overall by the large number of motorcycle users shifting to UMRT. Under the most optimistic scenario, modal integration for transit-access trips leads to an average reduction of 17.7% in net vehicle-kilometer traveled or 14.5% in net CO2 emissions or 10.9% in NOx from private vehicles. Our findings also imply that the introduction of parking fees for bicycling- or motorcycling-access trips, while impactful, does not significantly change UMRT choice. Therefore, the pricing schemes should be a focus of parking planning surrounding stations. Finally, a number of policy suggestions for parking planning and first-mile vehicles are presented.
Given the issues of urban-rural educational inequality and difficulties for children from poor families to succeed, this study explores the impact mechanism of internet usage on rural educational investment in China within the context of the digital divide. Using data from the 2019 China Household Finance Survey (CHFS), this study analyzed the educational investment decisions of 2064 rural households. Results indicate that in the Eastern region, a high level of educational investment is primarily influenced by the per capita income of the family, with social capital and internet usage also playing supportive roles. In the Northeastern region, the key factor is the diversity of internet usage, specifically using both a smartphone and a computer. In the Central region, factors such as the diversity of internet usage, subjective risk attitudes, the appropriate age of the household head, and per capita income of the family contribute to higher levels of educational investment. In the Western region, the dominant factors are the diversity of internet usage, subjective usage and per capita income of the family. These factors enhance expected returns on the high level of educational investment and boost farmers’ confidence. High internet usage rates significantly promote diverse and stable educational investment decisions, providing evidence for policymakers to bridge the urban-rural education gap.
Numerical study of subcooled and saturated flow boiling in the curved and helically coiled tubes in presence of phase change is one of the challenging area of CFD studies. In this paper, the CFD modeling of the nucleate and convective flow boiling in the small helically coiled tube at low vapor quality (up to the 18.93 percent) region is studied. A proper Eulerian-based mathematical model is used for interphase exchange forces and heat transfer between two phases in CFD modeling using Bulk boiling model. The results show that, the inner and the bottom wall of the helically coiled tube have the lowest and the highest heat transfer coefficient, respectively. The effect of change in coil diameter, helical pitch and tube diameter is investigated on the counters of vapor volume fraction. It is seen that at low vapor quality flows, the heat transfer coefficient is enhanced by decreasing in coil diameter, tube diameter and increasing in coil pitch of helically coiled tube.
Developing Asia’s infrastructure gap results from both inadequate public resources and a lack of effective channels to mobilize private resources toward desired outcomes. The public-private partnership (PPP) mechanism has evolved to fill the infrastructure gap. However, PPP projects are often at risk of becoming distressed, or worst, being terminated because of the long-term nature of contracts and the many different stakeholders involved. This paper applies survival-time hazard analysis to estimate how project-related, macroeconomic, and institutional factors affect the hazard rate of the projects. Empirical results show that government’s provision of guarantees, involvement of multilateral development banks, and existence of a dedicated PPP unit are important for a project’s success. Privately initiated proposals should be regulated and undergo competitive bidding to reduce the hazard rate of the project and the corresponding burden to the government. Economic growth leads to successful project outcomes. Improved legal and institutional environment can ensure PPP success.
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