COVID-19 has presented considerable challenges to fiscal budget allocations in developing countries, significantly affecting decisions regarding number of investments in the transport sector where precise resource allocation is required. Elucidating the long-term relationship between public transport investment and economic growth might enable policymaker to effectively make a decision in regard to those budget allocation. Our paper then utilizes Thailand as a case study to analyze the effects on economic growth in a developing country context. The study employs Cointegration and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) techniques to account for long-term correlations among explanatory variables during 1991–2019. The statistical findings reveal a significantly positive correlation between transport investment and economic growth by indicating an increase of 0.937 in economic growth for every one-percent increment in transport investment (S.D. = 0.024, p < 0.05). This emphasizes the potential of expanding the transport investment to recover Thailand’s economy. Furthermore, in terms of short-term adjustments, our results indicate that transport investment can significantly mitigate the negative impact of external shocks by 0.98 percent (p < 0.05). These findings assist policymakers in better managing national budget allocations in the post-Covid-19 period, allowing them to estimate the duration of crowding-out effects induced by shocks more effectively.

This study examines the interaction between foreign direct investment (FDI), idiosyncratic risk, sectoral GDP, economic activity, and economic growth in ASEAN countries using structural equation modeling (SEM) performed using AMOS software. The analysis uses data from the ASEAN Statistics Database 2023 to distinguish the significant direct and indirect impacts of FDI on idiosyncratic risks, sectoral GDP, economic activity and aggregate economic growth can. ASEAN, which includes ten Southeast Asian countries, has experienced rapid economic growth and increasing integration in recent decades, making it an interesting area to study these relationships. The study covers a comprehensive period to capture trends and differences among ASEAN member states. Applying SEM with AMOS allows a detailed examination of complex relationships between important economic variables. The results show a clear link between FDI inflows, idiosyncratic risks, industry GDP performance, economic activity, and overall economic growth. More specifically, FDI inflows have a notable direct influence on idiosyncratic risks, which then impact GDP growth by sector, and the level of economic activity and ultimately contribute to economic growth trends. economy more broadly in ASEAN countries. These findings highlight the importance of understanding and effectively managing the dynamics between FDI and various economic indicators to promote sustainable economic development across ASEAN. This information can inform policymakers, investors, and stakeholders in developing targeted strategies and policies that maximize the benefits of FDI while minimizing related risks to promote strong and inclusive economic growth in the region. This study highlights the multifaceted relationships in the ASEAN economic context, emphasizing the need for strategic interventions and policy frameworks to exploit the potential of foreign investment directed at ASEAN, to the Sustainable Development Goals and long-term economic prosperity in the region.

Using a newly-developed data set for Portugal, we analyze the industry-level effects of infrastructure investment. Focusing on the divide between traded and non-traded industries, we find that infrastructure investments have a non-traded bias, as these shift the industry mix towards private and public services. We also find that the industries that benefit the most in relative terms are all non-traded: construction, trade, and real estate, among the private services, and education and health, among the public services. Similarly, emerging trading sectors, such as hospitality and professional services, stand to gain. The positive impacts on traded industries are too small to make a difference. These results highlight that infrastructure-based strategies are not neutral in terms of the industry mix. Moreover, with most of the benefits accruing to non-traded industries, such a development model that is heavily based on domestic demand may be unsustainable in light of Portugal’s current foreign account position.