The significance of remittances to the Vietnamese economy necessitates investigating how they affect the value of the Vietnamese currency and other macroeconomic factors. Macroeconomic articles struggle to discover their impact on economic development, but measured remittances by migrant workers have recently soared. There is no academic study that has examined this phenomenon in Vietnam. This study uses wavelet frameworks to analyze the lead-lag nexus between exchange rates, remittances, and economic growth in Vietnam in time-frequency domains from 1995 to 2020. Overall, we find that: (i) remittances enhance economic growth in the short and medium run; (ii) exchange rates boost remittances in the short and medium run; (iii) exchange rates promote GDP in all frequency and time domains. Moreover, the partial wavelet coherence and multiple wavelet coherence frameworks also offered evidence supporting the wavelet coherence approach. More importantly, the outcomes of wavelet-based Granger causality unveil that there is two-way causality between the selected indicators, which means that all the indicators can predict each other at different frequencies. Our empirical results provide meaningful information for market participants and policymakers.
COVID-19 has presented considerable challenges to fiscal budget allocations in developing countries, significantly affecting decisions regarding number of investments in the transport sector where precise resource allocation is required. Elucidating the long-term relationship between public transport investment and economic growth might enable policymaker to effectively make a decision in regard to those budget allocation. Our paper then utilizes Thailand as a case study to analyze the effects on economic growth in a developing country context. The study employs Cointegration and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) techniques to account for long-term correlations among explanatory variables during 1991–2019. The statistical findings reveal a significantly positive correlation between transport investment and economic growth by indicating an increase of 0.937 in economic growth for every one-percent increment in transport investment (S.D. = 0.024, p < 0.05). This emphasizes the potential of expanding the transport investment to recover Thailand’s economy. Furthermore, in terms of short-term adjustments, our results indicate that transport investment can significantly mitigate the negative impact of external shocks by 0.98 percent (p < 0.05). These findings assist policymakers in better managing national budget allocations in the post-Covid-19 period, allowing them to estimate the duration of crowding-out effects induced by shocks more effectively.
This study critically examines the implications of international transport corridor projects for Central Asian countries, focusing on the Western-backed Transport Corridor Europe-Caucasus-Asia (TRACECA), the Chinese initiative “One Belt—One Road”, and the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) supported by the Russian Federation, India, and Iran. The analysis underscores the risks associated with Western projects, highlighting a need for a more explicit commitment to substantial infrastructure investments and persistent contradictions among key investors and beneficiaries. While the Chinese initiative presents significant benefits such as transit participation, infrastructure development, and economic investments, it also carries risks, notably an increased debt burden and potential monopolization by Chinese corporations. The study emphasizes that Central Asian countries, though indirect beneficiaries of INSTC, may not be directly involved due to geographical constraints. Study findings advocate for Central Asian nations to balance foreign investments, promote economic integration, and safeguard political and economic sovereignty. The study underscores the region’s wealth of natural and human resources, emphasizing the potential for increased demand for goods and services with improved living standards, strategically positioning these countries in the evolving global economic landscape.
The present study aimed to determine the dynamic relationship between good governance, fiscal policy, and economic growth in Oman. In the context of the current study, researchers chose a quantitative approach to answer the research questions, utilizing the latest 2023 data from the World Bank and The Global Economy databases. The data for the current study was carefully selected using variables that represent aspects of governance, fiscal policies, and economic performance. Our analysis uses Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model. These methods help us understand these factors’ immediate and long-term impacts on Oman’s economy. The results we obtained offer fascinating insights into the country’s economic dynamics. We observe bidirectional causal relationships between the Good Governance Index (GGI) and the Regulatory Quality Index (RQI) and economic growth, while Fiscal Policy Effectiveness (FPE), Government Efficiency Index (GEI), and the Rule of Law Index (RLI) exhibit unidirectional causality towards GDP. Budget Balance (BB) shows no causal relationship with GDP, implying external factors influence it. Additionally, moderation analysis underscores the significance of digital financial inclusion in amplifying the effects of governance and fiscal policies on economic growth. These findings hold practical implications for policymakers and stakeholders in Oman. Specifically, they highlight the importance of governance, regulatory quality, and effective fiscal policies in shaping the economic landscape. To foster sustainable economic development, efforts should improve governance, enhance fiscal policy effectiveness, and promote digital financial inclusion.
The low economic growth of Gorontalo province and the smallest PDRB ADHK in Indonesia are the reasons why this research needs to be carried out to look at the influence of the number of poor people, human development index and unemployment on economic growth in the districts/cities of Gorontolo Province, as a result, there is a mismatch between empirical and theoretical, this research was conducted to fill the information gap on how the three variables influence economic growth, This research was conducted to determine the effect of the number of poor people, the human development index. and unemployment on economic growth, research population data on the number of poor people, HDI, Unemployment, Economic growth, the sampling technique of this research is non-probability sampling, where the full sampling method is applied, Gorontalo Province with six regencies/cities is sampled in this research, with data taken in 2012–2021, the data analysis technique uses panel data regression, with three-panel data model estimates namely CEM, FEM, REM and model selection techniques, Chow test, Hausmant Test and Lagrange multiplie equipped with classical assumption tests and T hypothesis tests and F, the research Finding show that the number of poor people in the Regency/City of Gorontalo Province does not have a significant effect on economic growth in Gorontalo Province. Rice, which is the staple food for the people of Gorontalo, apart from rice, the high level of cigarette consumption among the people of Gorontalo, apparently also has an impact. large impact on the increase in the number of poor people, the human development index in the Regency/City of Gorontalo Province has a significant influence on the economic growth of Gorontalo Province where every increase that occurs in the HDI results in an increase in economic growth in Gorontalo Province, thirdly, the open unemployment rate in the Regency/City of Gorontalo Province does not have a significant effect on the economic growth of Gorontalo Province, conclusion of this research is only HDI affects economic growth in Gorontalo.
As urbanisation increases, questions arise about the desirability of further urban growth, as it was not accompanied by corresponding economic growth, and social and environmental problems began to grow in the largest cities in the world. The objective of the article is to substantiate the limits of urbanization growth in Kazakhstan based on the study of theoretical views on this process, analysis of the dependence of social and economic parameters of 134 countries on the urbanisation level and calculation of the urbanisation level that contributes most to economic growth and social well-being. To achieve the goal, the following tasks have been set and solved: theoretical views on the process of urbanization have been generalized; a hypothesis has been put forward about the emergence of an “urbanization trap” in which the growth of large cities is not accompanied by economic growth and improvement of social well-being; an analysis of the dependence of socio-economic indicators on the level of urbanization has been carried out on the example of 134 countries of the world; the level of urbanization that maximizes economic growth and social well-being is calculated; the necessity of the development of small towns in Kazakhstan is substantiated. To solve the problems, the methods of logical analysis, analogies and generalizations, economic statistics, index, graphical, Pearson correlation analysis, Spearman and Kendall rank regression based on models in SPSS were used. As a result, the following conclusions are made: the hypothesis of a possible deterioration of socio-economic indicators in large cities is confirmed; the best positive result is demonstrated by the level of urbanization of 50%–59%. The recommendations are justified: in Kazakhstan, it is necessary to adhere to the level of urbanization no higher than 59%; the growth of urbanization should be ensured through the development of small towns; it is necessary to improve the methods of managing the process of urbanization and develop individual city plans.
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