This study examines the interaction between foreign direct investment (FDI), idiosyncratic risk, sectoral GDP, economic activity, and economic growth in ASEAN countries using structural equation modeling (SEM) performed using AMOS software. The analysis uses data from the ASEAN Statistics Database 2023 to distinguish the significant direct and indirect impacts of FDI on idiosyncratic risks, sectoral GDP, economic activity and aggregate economic growth can. ASEAN, which includes ten Southeast Asian countries, has experienced rapid economic growth and increasing integration in recent decades, making it an interesting area to study these relationships. The study covers a comprehensive period to capture trends and differences among ASEAN member states. Applying SEM with AMOS allows a detailed examination of complex relationships between important economic variables. The results show a clear link between FDI inflows, idiosyncratic risks, industry GDP performance, economic activity, and overall economic growth. More specifically, FDI inflows have a notable direct influence on idiosyncratic risks, which then impact GDP growth by sector, and the level of economic activity and ultimately contribute to economic growth trends. economy more broadly in ASEAN countries. These findings highlight the importance of understanding and effectively managing the dynamics between FDI and various economic indicators to promote sustainable economic development across ASEAN. This information can inform policymakers, investors, and stakeholders in developing targeted strategies and policies that maximize the benefits of FDI while minimizing related risks to promote strong and inclusive economic growth in the region. This study highlights the multifaceted relationships in the ASEAN economic context, emphasizing the need for strategic interventions and policy frameworks to exploit the potential of foreign investment directed at ASEAN, to the Sustainable Development Goals and long-term economic prosperity in the region.
This study introduces a novel Groundwater Flooding Risk Assessment (GFRA) model to evaluate risks associated with groundwater flooding (GF), a globally significant hazard often overshadowed by surface water flooding. GFRA utilizes a conditional probability function considering critical factors, including topography, ground slope, and land use-recharge to generate a risk assessment map. Additionally, the study evaluates the return period of GF events (GFRP) by fitting annual maxima of groundwater levels to probability distribution functions (PDFs). Approximately 57% of the pilot area falls within high and critical GF risk categories, encompassing residential and recreational areas. Urban sectors in the north and east, containing private buildings, public centers, and industrial structures, exhibit high risk, while developing areas and agricultural lands show low to moderate risk. This serves as an early warning for urban development policies. The Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution effectively captures groundwater level fluctuations. According to the GFRP model, about 21% of the area, predominantly in the city's northeast, has over 50% probability of GF exceedance (1 to 2-year return period). Urban outskirts show higher return values (> 10 years). The model's predictions align with recorded flood events (90% correspondence). This approach offers valuable insights into GF threats for vulnerable locations and aids proactive planning and management to enhance urban resilience and sustainability.
A precise risk assessment in a production line constitutes a significant item to identify susceptible areas where there is a possibility of product quality degradation. This also applies to the precast concrete production line in Indonesia that has a spun pile product. Based on a risk assessment activity conducted in this study, it is proposed to build a traceability model in order to maintain and even improve the spun pile product quality in Indonesia. The approach used was the Neural Network of the perceptron model for weighing and will result in a defined traceability path in the context of reducing defects and even failed spun pile products. The simulation result showed that the model has been able to detect risky path possibilities to reduce product quality. The accumulation result of high-risk and medium-risk paths in this study showed that closer to product finalization, the risk will be higher. It is evident that when assessing Indicators, the order from the highest accumulation value first is Curing & Demolding and Stressing & Spinning at 29% each, Casting at 14%, Forming & Setting at 14%, and lastly Cutting & Heading at 14%. Regarding the risk assessment for activities, the first position is Curing & Demolding and Stressing & Spinning with 30% each, the second is Casting and Forming & Setting with 15% each, and the third is Cutting & Heading with 10%.
Projects implemented under life cycle contracts have become increasingly common in recent years to ensure the quality of construction and maintenance of energy infrastructure facilities. A key parameter for energy facility construction projects implemented under life cycle contracts is their duration and deadlines. Therefore, the systematic identification, monitoring, and comprehensive assessment of risks affecting the timing of work on the design and construction is an urgent practical task. The purpose of this work is to study the strength of the influence of various risks on the duration of a project implemented on the terms of a life cycle contract. The use of the expert assessment method allows for identifying the most likely risks for the design and construction phases, as well as determining the ranges of deviations from the baseline indicator. Using the obtained expert evaluations, a model reflecting the range and the most probable duration of the design and construction works under the influence of risk events was built by the Monte-Carlo statistical method. The results obtained allow monitoring and promptly detecting deviations in the actual duration of work from the basic deadlines set in the life cycle contract. This will give an opportunity to accurately respond to emerging risks and build a mutually beneficial relationship between the parties to life cycle contracts.
The Government of Indonesia has modernized the toll road transaction system by implementing the multi-lane free-flow (MLFF) project, set to operate commercially by the end of 2024. This project leverages Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) technology to identify vehicles using toll roads and establish a transaction mechanism that allows the MLFF Project Company to charge road users according to distance, vehicle category, and tariff levels. The project has result in a complex business arrangement between the Indonesia National Toll Road Authority (INTRA), Toll Road Companies (TRCs), and the MLFF Project Company. The aim of this paper is to review the regulatory and institutional framework of the MLFF project and analyze its challenges. The methodology employed is a qualitative framework for legal research, utilizing international literature reviews and current regulatory frameworks. The study assesses the proposed transaction architecture of the project and identifies commercial, political, and other risks associated with its implementation. Based on the analysis, the research identifies opportunities for regulatory improvements and better contracting arrangements. This research provides valuable insights into the regulatory landscape and offers policy recommendations for the Government to mitigate the identified risks. This contribution is significant to the academic field as it enhances understanding regulatory and institutional challenges in implementing advanced toll road systems.
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