The construction of gas plants often experiences delays caused by various factors, which can lead to significant financial and operational losses. This research aims to develop an accurate risk model to improve the schedule performance of gas plant projects. The model uses Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA) and Monte Carlo simulation methods to identify and measure the risks that most significantly impact project schedule performance. A comprehensive literature review was conducted to identify the risk variables that may cause delays. The risk model, pre-simulation modeling, result analysis, and expert validation were all developed using a Focused Group Discussion (FGD). Primavera Risk Analysis (PRA) software was used to perform Monte Carlo simulations. The simulation output provides information on probability distribution, histograms, descriptive statistics, sensitivity analysis, and graphical results that aid in better understanding and decision-making regarding project risks. The research results show that the simulated project completion timeline after mitigation suggested an acceleration of 61–65 days compared to the findings of the baseline simulation. This demonstrates that activity-based mitigation has a major influence on improving schedule performance. This research makes a significant contribution to addressing project delay issues by introducing an innovative and effective risk model. The model empowers project teams to proactively identify, measure, and mitigate risks, thereby improving project schedule performance and delivering more successful projects.
The Indonesian government is currently carrying out massive infrastructure development, with a budget exceeding 10. Risk mapping based on good risk management is crucial for stakeholders in organizing construction projects. Projects financed by government, whether solicited or unsolicited schemes, should also include risk mapping to add value and foster partnerships. Therefore, this study aimed to develop a risk management model for solicited and unsolicited projects, focusing on the collaborative management system among stakeholders in government-financed projects. Risk review was conducted from various stakeholders’ perspectives, examining the impacts and potential losses to manage uncertainty and reduce losses for relevant parties. Furthermore, qualitative analysis was conducted using Focus Group Discussion (FGD) and in-depth interviews. The results showed that partnering-based risk management with risk sharing in solicited and unsolicited projects had similarities with Integrated Project Delivery (IPD). This approach provided benefits and value by developing various innovations in the project life cycle.
This study investigates seismic risk and potential impacts of future earthquakes in the Sunda Strait region, known for its susceptibility to significant seismic events due to the subduction of the Indo-Australian Plate beneath the Eurasian Plate. The aim is to assess the likelihood of major earthquakes, estimate their impact, and propose strategies to mitigate associated risks. The research uses historical seismic data and probabilistic models to forecast earthquakes with magnitudes ranging from 6.0 to 8.2 Mw. The Gutenberg-Richter model helps project potential earthquake occurrences and their impacts. The findings suggest that the probability of a major earthquake could occur as early as 2026–2027, with a more significant event estimated to likely occur around 2031. Economic estimates for a 7.8–8.2 Mw earthquake suggest potential damage of up to USD 1.255 billion with significant loss of life. The study identifies key vulnerabilities, such as inadequate building foundations and ineffective disaster management infrastructure, which could worsen the impact of future seismic events. In conclusion, the research highlights the urgent need for comprehensive seismic risk mitigation strategies. Recommendations include reinforcing infrastructure to comply with seismic standards, implementing advanced early warning systems, and enhancing public education on earthquake preparedness. Additionally, government policies must address these issues by increasing funding for disaster management, enforcing building regulations, and incorporating traditional knowledge into construction practices. These measures are essential to reducing future earthquake impacts and improving community resilience.
The gravure printing process is widely utilized for large-scale, high-quality, multi-colored printing tasks executed at high press speeds. This includes a diverse range of products such as art books, greeting cards, currency, stamps, wallpaper, magazines, and more. This thesis addresses the fire risks associated with gravure printing, acknowledging the use of highly flammable materials and the potential for static charge-related incidents. Despite its prevalence, there is limited research on fire prevention and control in gravure printing. The study employs field observations, stakeholder interviews, and an extensive review of literature on fire risk and control in printing press operations in India. It analyzes the causes of fires using the fire triangle model, emphasizing the role of heat, combustible materials, and oxygen in fire incidents within the printing press environment. The thesis categorizes preventive measures into fire prevention and fire suppression actions, focusing on reducing fire load, static charge mitigation, and implementing firefighting systems. It observes that poor housekeeping, lack of awareness, and inadequate emergency control plans contribute significantly to fire hazards in press facilities. Additionally, the research identifies key factors such as high press temperatures, low humidity, improper storage, and inadequacies in firefighting systems as potential causes of fires. It emphasizes the need for optimal environmental conditions, proper storage practices, and effective firefighting infrastructure within press facilities. The study concludes with comprehensive guidelines for loss prevention and control, including management programs, housekeeping, operator training, pre-emergency planning, preventive maintenance, and plant security. It also addresses safety measures specific to gravure printing presses, such as automatic sprinkler systems, fire hydrant system, carbon dioxide flooding systems, and portable fire extinguishers. In summary, this thesis provides valuable insights into the multifaceted nature of fire risks in gravure printing presses and recommends a holistic approach for effective fire prevention and control.
Fire, a phenomenon occurs in most parts of the world and causes severe financial losses, even, irreparable damages. Many parameters are involved in the occurrence of a fire; some of which are constant over time (at least in a fire cycle), but the others are dynamic and vary over time. Unlike the earthquake, the disturbance of fire depends on a set of physical, chemical, and biological relations. Monitoring the changes to predict the occurrence of fire is efficient in forest management. Method: In this research, the Persian and English databases were structurally searched using the keywords of fire risk modeling, fire risk, fire risk prediction, remote sensing and the reviewed papers that predicted the fire risk in the field of remote sensing and geographic information system were retrieved. Then, the modeling and zoning data of fire risk prediction were extracted and analyzed in a descriptive manner. Accordingly, the study was conducted in 1995-2017. Findings: Fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (AHP) zoning method was more practical among the applied methods and the plant moisture stress measurement was the most efficient among the remote sensing indices. Discussion and Conclusion: The findings indicate that RS and GIS are effective tools in the study of fire risk prediction.
Using a Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model, and China as the base for analytical comparison, this paper shows that there are significant economic benefits to China and the participating countries along all six Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) economic corridors. However, to maximize these benefits, the social and environmental risks need to be well managed. The analysis shows a clear sequencing in terms of priority corridors. Two corridors have minimal investments and immediate returns, two corridors have significant investments with huge returns, and two corridors have high investments with lower returns. Overall, the paper demonstrates that to ensure the sustainability of any BRI corridor development, there is a need to consider its costs and benefits from the economic, social and environmental perspectives.
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