This paper investigates the factors influencing credit growth in Kosovo, focusing on the relationship between credit activity and key economic variables, including GDP, FDI, CPI, and interest rates. Its analysis targets loans issued to businesses and households in Kosovo, employing a VAR model integrated into a VEC model to investigate the determinants of credit growth. The findings were validated using OLS regression. Additionally, the study includes a normality test, a model stability test (Inverse Roots AR Characteristic Polynomial), a Granger causality test for short-term relationships, and variance decomposition to analyze variable shocks over time. This research demonstrates that loan growth is primarily driven by its historical values. The VEC model shows that, in the long run, economic growth in Kosovo leads to less credit growth, showing a negative link between it and GDP. Higher interest rates also reduce credit growth, showing another negative link. On the other hand, more foreign direct investment (FDI) increases credit demand, showing a positive link between credit growth and FDI. The results show that loans and inflation (CPI) are positively linked, meaning higher inflation leads to more credit growth. Similarly, more foreign direct investment (FDI) increases credit demand, showing a positive link between FDI and credit growth. In the long term, higher inflation is connected to greater credit growth. In the short term, the VAR model suggests that GDP has a small to moderate effect on loans, while FDI has a slightly negative effect. In the VAR model, interest rates have a mixed effect: one coefficient is positive and the other negative, showing a delayed negative impact on loan growth. CPI has a small and negative effect, indicating little short-term influence on credit growth. The OLS regression supports the VAR results, finding no effect of GDP on loans, a small negative effect from FDI, a strong negative effect from interest rates, and no effect from CPI. This study provides a detailed analysis and adds to the research by showing how macroeconomic factors affect credit growth in Kosovo. The findings offer useful insights for policymakers and researchers about the relationship between these factors and credit activity.
Analysing external factors with a design-thinking approach is crucial for adaptation, identifying opportunities, and mitigating risks in native digital enterprises. This research introduces a framework rooted in design principles and future scenarios for external analysis, with the aim of meeting current market needs. The study employs a mixed qualitative-quantitative research approach, incorporating methods such as literature review, workshops, and surveys. These methods enable the collection and analysis of both qualitative and quantitative data, providing a comprehensive and accurate understanding of the research topic by using it in a DNVB case study. Developing a conceptual framework using a design-thinking approach which we call ASPECT contributes to a comprehensive interpretation of complexity, intertwining collective and individual factors. This reduces the risk of overlooking essential elements when making strategic decisions in ambiguous, uncertain, and volatile contexts. This method contrasts with traditional external analysis frameworks like CAME, Pestle, and SWOT. The document aims to contribute to the literature by exploring new models of external analysis based on the design process. This framework combines the conventional stages of a design thinking process with methodologies for future scenarios to identify relevant external factors for organizations. It provides an innovative conceptual framework for creating new business models and growth strategies for digital enterprises.
The purpose of the article is the analysis of the constitutional regime in the Republic of Poland, the study of democratic and authoritarian tendencies. The article is devoted to the coverage of one of the most pressing issues, namely the constitutional principles of Polish democracy, which play an important role in determining the political system and functioning of the State. They establish the basic principles of a democratic system, protect the rights and freedoms of citizens, and determine the relationship between the Government and the people. Poland, as a democratic republic, has its own constitutional principles, ensuring the stability of the political system and the development of democracy in the country. The article analyzes the constitutional principles in the doctrine of constitutional law and constitutional practice of Poland, examines their nature and significance for the supremacy of the Constitution and the development of the legal system. Authoritarian tendencies are covered as well. It is determined that nowadays there is a tense interaction between democratic principles and tendencies towards authoritarianism in the Republic of Poland. This situation is reflected in political actions, legislative changes and Government actions that can contribute to the undermining of democratic institutions and values.
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