This study aims to evaluate the relationship between financial resilience, exchange rate, inflation, and economic growth from 1996 to 2022 using secondary data from the World Bank. The analysis method uses vector autoregressive to understand the causality dynamics between these variables. The results show that past economic growth positively impacts current economic conditions, but an increase in the exchange rate can hinder economic growth. The exchange rate also tends to be influenced by previous values, but high economic growth does not always increase the exchange rate. Previous conditions significantly affect financial resilience and can be strengthened by a strong currency. Meanwhile, inflation has an inverse relationship with economic growth, where past inflation seems to suppress current inflation, which price stabilization policies can cause. From an institutional economics perspective, this study provides an understanding of the interaction between various economic factors in the structural framework and policies that regulate economic activities. The impulse response function (IRF) shows that economic growth can react strongly to sudden changes, although this reaction may not last long. The exchange rate fluctuates with economic changes, reflecting market optimism and uncertainty. Financial resilience may be strong initially but may weaken over time, indicating the need for policies to strengthen the financial system to ensure economic stability. Furthermore, the role of social capital in economic resilience is highlighted as it can amplify the positive effects of a robust institutional framework by fostering trust and collaboration among economic actors. Inflation reacts differently to economic changes, challenging policymakers to balance growth and price stability. Overall, the IRF provides insights into how economic variables interact with each other and react to sudden changes, albeit with some uncertainty in the estimates. The forecast error decomposition variance (FEVD) analysis in this study reveals that internal factors initially influence economic growth, but over time, external factors such as the exchange rate, financial resilience, and inflation come into play. The exchange rate, which was initially volatile due to internal factors, becomes increasingly influenced by economic growth, indicating a close relationship between the economy and the foreign exchange market. From an institutional economics perspective, financial resilience, which was initially stable due to internal factors, becomes increasingly dependent on global economic conditions, suggesting the importance of a solid institutional framework for maintaining economic stability. In addition, inflation, which was initially explained by economic growth and exchange rates, has gradually become more influenced by financial resilience, indicating the importance of effective monetary policy in controlling inflation. This study highlights the importance of understanding how economic variables influence each other for effective economic governance. Integrating institutional economics and social capital perspectives provides a comprehensive framework for enhancing financial resilience and promoting sustainable economic development in Indonesia.

This paper examines the detrimental impact of rapid inflation on the quality of private education in developing countries. By focusing on the financial challenges faced by private schools, the study highlights the tension between education policy and economic realities. While private schools often attract parents with smaller class sizes and specialized programs, the core motivation lies in investing in children’s future through quality education. However, this study demonstrates how inflation can cripple this sector. The case of Turkey exemplifies this challenge. Post-pandemic inflation created a financial stranglehold on private schools, as rising costs made it difficult to adjust teacher salaries. This, in turn, led to teacher demotivation and a mass exodus, ultimately compromising educational quality. Furthermore, government interventions aimed at protecting parents from high tuition fees, through limitations on fee increases, inadvertently sacrificed the very quality they sought to safeguard. The paper concludes by advocating for alternative policy approaches that prioritize direct support for education system during economic downturns. Such measures are crucial for ensuring a strong and resilient education system that benefits all stakeholders, including parents, students, and the nation as a whole.

Contract workers are the direct victims of casualization but beyond that, the effects they suffer transcend to their families and the larger society. The study examined the effects of casualization on the contract workers of banks in Sokoto, Nigeria. The primary methods of gathering data for the study were in-depth and key informant interviews, with sixty individuals who were specifically chosen. Following content analysis, the gathered data were presented narratively with verbatim quotations. According to the study, there are a number of negative effects of casualization, such as low wages that contribute to a low standard of living and the inability of employees and their families to adequately meet their basic needs, the arbitrary termination of casual employees without cause, and the lack of a claim for work-related injuries or diseases in the event of an accident or death. The overall inference is that the temporary employees are working in appallingly subpar conditions. The study suggests that in order to raise the living standards of their temporary employees, banks should provide welfare packages. Additionally, because inflation is on the rise, contract employees’ compensation should be reviewed upward.

The main objective of this article is to analyze the relationship between increases in freight costs and inflation in the markets due to the increases reflected in the prices of the products in some economies in destination ports such as the United States, Europe, Japan, South Africa, the United Arab Emirates, New Zealand and South Korea. We use fractionally integrated methods and Granger causality test to calculate the correlation between these indicators. The results indicate that, after a significant drop in inflation in 2020, probably due to the confinement caused by the pandemic, the increases observed in inflation and freight costs are expected to be transitory given their stationary behavior. We also find a close correlation between both indicators in Europe, the United States and South Africa.

As a key factor in the macroeconomic process, the interaction between public confidence and the commodity market, especially its impact on commodity facilitation returns and macroeconomic linkages, is worth exploring in depth. This study adopts the TVP-SV-VAR model to analyze the causal linkages, dynamic characteristics, and mechanisms of the interaction, and reveals the following core findings: (1) The economic background and information shocks contribute to the variations in the effects and orientations of the economic variables, which highlight the time-varying nature of the economic interactions. (2) Consumer and investor confidence exert heterogeneous influence on the macroeconomy, and their different responses to the negative effect of interest rates and convenience gains are particularly significant in the post-crisis recovery period. (3) In the short-term perspective, the influence of public confidence on monetary policy and inflation exceeds that in the medium and long term, highlighting the immediate sensitivity of individual economic behavior. (4) Since 2015, accommodative monetary policy has accelerated market capital flows, delaying the interaction between confidence indices and inflation, revealing policy time lag effects. (5) Convenience gains exhibit complex time-varying interactions with key economic parameters (interest rates, commodity prices, and inflation), with 2011 and 2014 displaying particular patterns, mapping differences between short- and long-term mechanisms, respectively. The study highlights the central role of consumer and investor confidence in the precise tailoring of macroeconomic policies, providing a scientific basis for policy forecasting and economic regulation, and contributing to economic stability. Meanwhile, the dynamic evolution of consumer confidence deepens market trend foresight, enhances the precision of market participants’ decision-making, and reinforces the resilience and predictability of economic operations.