To achieve sustainable development, detailed planning, control and management of land cover changes that occur naturally or by human caused artificial factors, are essential. Urban managers and planners need a tool that represents them the information accurate, fast and in exact time. In this study, land use changes of 3 periods, 1994-2002, 2002-2009, 2009-2015 and predictions of 2009, 2015 and 2023 were assessed. In this paper, Maximum Likelihood method was used to classify the images, so that after evaluation of accuracy, amount of overall accuracy for images of 2013 was 85.55% and its Kappa coefficient was 80.03%. To predict land use changes, Markov-CA model was used after assessing the accuracy, and the amount of overall accuracy for 2009 was 82.57% and for 2015 was 93.865%. Then web GIS application was designed via map server application and evoked shape files through map file and open layers to browser environment and for design of appearance of website CSS, HTML and JavaScript languages were used. HTML is responsible for creating the foundation and overall structure of webpage but beautifying and layout design on CSS.
The Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) is an electricity generation system that uses organic fluid instead of water in the low temperature range. The Organic Rankine cycle using zeotropic working fluids has wide application potential. In this study, data mining (DM) model is used for performance analysis of organic Rankine cycle (ORC) using zeotropik working fluids R417A and R422D. Various DM models, including Linear Regression (LR), Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), M5 Rules, M5 Model Tree, Random Committee (RC), and Decision Tree (DT) models are used. The MLP model emerged as the most effective approach for predicting the thermal efficiency of both R417A and R422D. The MLP’s predicted results closely matched the actual results obtained from the thermodynamic model using Genetron software. The Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) for the thermal efficiency was exceptionally low, at 0.0002 for R417A and 0.0003 for R422D. Additionally, the R-squared (R2) values for thermal efficiency were very high, reaching 0.9999 for R417A and R422D. The findings demonstrate the effectiveness of the DM model for complex tasks like estimating ORC thermal efficiency. This approach empowers engineers with the ability to predict thermal efficiency in organic Rankine systems with high accuracy, speed, and ease.
To gain a deep understanding of maintenance and repair planning, investigate the weak points of the distribution network, and discover unusual events, it is necessary to trace the shutdowns that occurred in the network. Many incidents happened due to the failure of thermal equipment in schools. On the other hand, the most important task of electricity distribution companies is to provide reliable and stable electricity, which minimal blackouts and standard voltage should accompany. This research uses seasonal time series and artificial neural network approaches to provide models to predict the failure rate of one of the equipment used in two areas covered by the greater Tehran electricity distribution company. These data were extracted weekly from April 2019 to March 2021 from the ENOX incident registration software. For this purpose, after pre-processing the data, the appropriate final model was presented with the help of Minitab and MATLAB software. Also, average air temperature, rainfall, and wind speed were selected as input variables for the neural network. The mean square error has been used to evaluate the proposed models’ error rate. The results show that the time series models performed better than the multi-layer perceptron neural network in predicting the failure rate of the target equipment and can be used to predict future periods.
The purpose of this study is to predict the frequency of mortality from urban traffic injuries for the most vulnerable road users before, during and after the confinement caused by COVID-19 in Santiago de Cali, Colombia. Descriptive statistical methods were applied to the frequency of traffic crash frequency to identify vulnerable road users. Spatial georeferencing was carried out to analyze the distribution of road crashes in the three moments, before, during, and after confinement, subsequently, the behavior of the most vulnerable road users at those three moments was predicted within the framework of the probabilistic random walk. The statistical results showed that the most vulnerable road user was the cyclist, followed by motorcyclist, motorcycle passenger, and pedestrian. Spatial georeferencing between the years 2019 and 2020 showed a change in the behavior of the crash density, while in 2021 a trend like the distribution of 2019 was observed. The predictions of the daily crash frequencies of these road users in the three moments were very close to the reported crash frequency. The predictions were strengthened by considering a descriptive analysis of a range of values that may indicate the possibility of underreporting in cases registered in the city’s official agency. These results provide new elements for policy makers to develop and implement preventive measures, allocate emergency resources, analyze the establishment of policies, plans and strategies aimed at the prevention and control of crashes due to traffic injuries in the face of extraordinary situations such as the COVID-19 pandemic or other similar events.
Every plant is significantly important in tackling climate change, including Makila (Litsea angulata BI) an endemic wood species found in the forest of Moluccas Provinces. Therefore, this research aimed to examine the role of the Makila plant in tackling climate change by measuring biomass content using constructing an allometric equation. The method used was a destructive sampling, where 40 units of Makila plant at the sampling level were felled, and sorted according to root, stem, branch, rating, and leaf segments. Each segment was weighed both at wet and after drying, followed by a classical assumption test in data processing, and the formulation of an allometric equation. The regression model was examined for normality and suitability in predicting independent variables, ensuring there were no issues with multicollinearity, heteroscedasticity, and autocorrelation. The results yielded a multiple linear regression, namely: Y = −1131.146 + 684.799X1 + 4.276X2, where Y is biomass, X1 is the diameter, and X2 is the tree height. Based on the results of the t-test: variable X1 partially affected Y while variable X2 partially had no effect on Y. The F-test indicated that variables X1 and X2 jointly affected Y with R Square: 0.919 or 91.9% and the rest was influenced by other unexplored factors. To simplify biomass prediction and field measurement, a regression equation that used only 1 independent variable, namely tree diameter, was used for the experiment. Allometric equation only used 1 variable, Y = −1,084,626 + 675,090X1, where X1 = tree diameter, Y = Total biomass with R = 0.957, and R2 = 0.915. Considering the potential for time, cost, and energy savings, as well as ease of measurement in the field, the biomass of young Makila trees was simply predicted by measuring the tree diameter and avoiding the height. This method used the strong relationship between biomass, plant diameter, and height to facilitate the estimation of biomass content accurately by entering the results of field measurements.
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