Against the backdrop of anti-globalization rhetoric, this paper summarizes our joint book entitled Going Beyond Aid (Lin and Wang, 2017a) and discusses the prospects for development finance in the broad context of Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Based on the New Structural Economics (Lin, 2010; 2011), here we focus on China’s demonstrated comparative advantages in infrastructure, e.g. in hydropower and high-speed railways (HSR). In addition, long-term orientation (LTO) and patient capital are latent comparative advantages that many Asian economies possess, and are critical for the Belt and Road Initiative. Only if these comparative advantages are utilized can these economies cooperate to potentially achieve win-win.

Investment growth in many emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) has slowed sharply since 2010. Investment growth performance has varied significantly across different regions, however. This paper examines the evolution of investment growth in six EMDE regions, documents remaining investment needs, especially for infrastructure, and presents a set of region-specific policy responses to address these needs. It reports three main findings. First, investment growth has been particularly weak in EMDE regions hosting a large number of commodity exporters. In regions with a substantial number of commodity-importing economies, investment growth has been somewhat resilient but has also declined steadily since 2010. Second, sizable investment needs remain in most EMDE regions to make room for expanding economic activity and rapid urbanization. A large portion of these investment needs is in infrastructure and human capital. Finally, while specific policy priorities vary across regions, several policy options to address remaining investment needs apply universally. These include more, and more efficient, public investment and measures to improve overall growth prospects and the business climate. Improved project selection and monitoring, as well as better governance, may enhance the efficiency and benefits from public investment.

The study looks into how governance qualities of decentralized governments mediate the impacts of decentralization on development. Based on a set-oriented approach, the study analyzed data from a nation-wide survey conducted with business managers from all provinces in Indonesia, and found evidence that, despite the country’s uniform decentralization reform, individual provinces exhibited great variation in the qualities of their various physical and institutional infrastructures. Notably, these qualities assumed nested relations, with order and security as well as accountability and rule of law seemingly being the preconditions of basic infrastructure provision as well as local governments’ coordination. Moreover, business investment decisions (measured as staff expansion and product innovation) were found to vary with some specific combinations of these infrastructural conditions. The result provides evidence supporting the argument that both physical and institutional infrastructures are instrumental to realize the supposed benefits of decentralization and supports the recent call of the literature to look into the political-institutional complex in the process of decentralization reform.

Infrastructure development is critical for sustaining Asia’s economic growth. Unfortunately, huge financing gaps—estimated by a recent Asian Development Bank study to be USD22.5 trillion—constrain the ability of most emerging Asian countries to fully realize the benefits of infrastructure development. For instance, over 70% of infrastructure investments in Asia are still funded by public resources, which pose acute financing challenges for many countries with limited budgets and fiscal constraints. This paper discusses some of the challenges associated with public financing of infrastructure projects in emerging Asian countries, before introducing some new options for alleviating their infrastructure investment needs. In particular, it proposes a new approach to infrastructure financing by utilizing the spillover effects of infrastructure investment, where additional revenues generated from such investment can be channeled back to investors as subsidy to increase the returns to their investment. The paper also argues the need for Asian countries to implement fiscal reforms and to develop a more balanced approach to financing, one that involves both the private and public sector. 

Using a Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model, and China as the base for analytical comparison, this paper shows that there are significant economic benefits to China and the participating countries along all six Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) economic corridors. However, to maximize these benefits, the social and environmental risks need to be well managed. The analysis shows a clear sequencing in terms of priority corridors. Two corridors have minimal investments and immediate returns, two corridors have significant investments with huge returns, and two corridors have high investments with lower returns. Overall, the paper demonstrates that to ensure the sustainability of any BRI corridor development, there is a need to consider its costs and benefits from the economic, social and environmental perspectives.