As a key factor in the macroeconomic process, the interaction between public confidence and the commodity market, especially its impact on commodity facilitation returns and macroeconomic linkages, is worth exploring in depth. This study adopts the TVP-SV-VAR model to analyze the causal linkages, dynamic characteristics, and mechanisms of the interaction, and reveals the following core findings: (1) The economic background and information shocks contribute to the variations in the effects and orientations of the economic variables, which highlight the time-varying nature of the economic interactions. (2) Consumer and investor confidence exert heterogeneous influence on the macroeconomy, and their different responses to the negative effect of interest rates and convenience gains are particularly significant in the post-crisis recovery period. (3) In the short-term perspective, the influence of public confidence on monetary policy and inflation exceeds that in the medium and long term, highlighting the immediate sensitivity of individual economic behavior. (4) Since 2015, accommodative monetary policy has accelerated market capital flows, delaying the interaction between confidence indices and inflation, revealing policy time lag effects. (5) Convenience gains exhibit complex time-varying interactions with key economic parameters (interest rates, commodity prices, and inflation), with 2011 and 2014 displaying particular patterns, mapping differences between short- and long-term mechanisms, respectively. The study highlights the central role of consumer and investor confidence in the precise tailoring of macroeconomic policies, providing a scientific basis for policy forecasting and economic regulation, and contributing to economic stability. Meanwhile, the dynamic evolution of consumer confidence deepens market trend foresight, enhances the precision of market participants’ decision-making, and reinforces the resilience and predictability of economic operations.

Finance is the core of the modern economy and the bloodline of the real economy; adherence to the people-centered value orientation and the financial services of the real economy as the fundamental purpose is an important connotation of the road of economic development with Chinese characteristics. Financial work is distinctly political and people-oriented, and must consciously practice the concept of the people, serve agricultural and rural development and farmers to increase their income and contribute to the common prosperity of farmers and rural areas. This study is based on the key factors affecting the multidimensional poverty of rural households—external rural financial resources availability and internal rural household entrepreneurship, rural household risk resilience, and rural household financial capability joint analysis. Based on financial exclusion theory, financial inclusion theory, poverty trap theory, and financial literacy theory, to build a logical framework between the rural financial resources availability, farmers’ financial capability, farmers’ entrepreneurship, farmers’ risk management capability, and farmers’ poverty, and then empirically explore the optimization mechanism of poverty reduction for farmers, and analyze the heterogeneity of the financial resources availability, to reduce the return to poverty caused by the lack of entrepreneurial motivation and the low level of risk resilience of rural households. The study aims to improve the farmers’ financial capability and promote sustainable and high-quality development of rural households. In this study, we modeled financial resource availability and rural household poverty using structural equations and surveyed rural households using a scale questionnaire. It was found that financial resource availability significantly affects rural household risk resilience, farmers’ entrepreneurship, and rural household poverty and that rural household risk resilience significance mediates the relationship between financial resource availability and rural household poverty, financial capability plays a significant moderating role. However, the mediating effect of farmers’ entrepreneurship on the availability of financial resources and farmers’ poverty is insignificant. Here, we put forward corresponding countermeasures and recommendations: guiding the allocation of financial resources to key areas and weak links; optimizing financial services; and building a long-term mechanism.

Demographic policy is one of the key tasks of almost any state at the present time. It correlates with the solution of pressing problems in the economic and social spheres, directly depends on the state of healthcare, education, migration policy and other factors and directly affects the socio-economic development of both individual regions and the country as a whole. Many Russian and foreign researchers believe that demographic indicators very accurately reflect the socio-economic and political situation of the state. The relevance of the study is due to the fact that for the progressive socio-economic development of any country, positive demographic dynamics are necessary. The main sign of the negative demographic situation that has developed in modern Russia and a number of countries, primarily European, is the growing scale of depopulation (population extinction). The purpose of this work was to analyze the existing demographic policy of Russia and compare demographic trends in Russia and other countries. The work uses methods of statistical data analysis, comparison of statistical indicators of fertility, mortality, natural population decline, migration, marriage rates in Russia and the Republic of Srpska, methods of retrospective analysis, research of the institutional environment created by the action of state and national programs “Demography”, “Providing accessible and comfortable housing and public services for citizens of the Russian Federation”, “Strategy of socio-economic development for the period until 2024”, Presidential decrees, etc. Research has shown that despite measures taken to overcome the demographic crisis, Russia’s population continues to decline. According to the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation (Rosstat), as of 1 January 2023, 146.45 million people lived in Russia. By 1 January 2046, according to a Rosstat forecast published in October 2023 the country’s population will decrease to 138.77 million people. To solve demographic problems in the Russian Federation, a national project “Demography” was developed and approved. The government has allocated more than 3 trillion rubles for its implementation. However, it is not possible to completely overcome the negative trend. The authors proposed a number of economic and ideological measures within the framework of agglomeration, migration, and family support policies that can be used within the framework of socio-economic development strategies and national programs aimed at overcoming the demographic crisis.

The purpose of the article is to present the current situation in the rail freight transport in Thailand and the direction of changes in this area. Firstly, Thailand statistics in volume of freight transport by rail and modal share of freight transport have been presented. Afterwards, problems and obstacles in railway operational practices and in using rail transport services have been identified to improve railway system in Thailand and the outcome was assessed in terms of railway capacity and utilization. The findings were used to outline the direction of changes in rail freight transport. The results show that the rail transport capacity in double-track would increase by 48% (at present by 15.5% and as plan by 30%) and the ratio by rail transport to total freight transport would increase from at present by 1.87% to 10% in 2037.

Heat stress amplified by climate change causes excessive reductions in labor capacity, work injuries, and socio-economic losses. Yet studies of corresponding impact assessments and adaptation developments are insufficient and incapable of effectively dealing with uncertain information. This gap is caused by the inability to resolve complex channels involving climate change, labor relations, and labor productivity. In this paper, an optimization-based productivity restoration modeling framework is developed to bridge the gap and support decision-makers in making informed adaptation plans. The framework integrates a multiple-climate-model ensemble, an empirical relationship between heat stress and labor capacity, and an inexact system costs model to investigate underlying uncertainties associated with climate and management systems. Optimal and reliable decision alternatives can be obtained by communicating uncertain information into the optimization processes and resolving multiple channels. Results show that the increased heat stress will lead to a potential reduction in labor productivity in China. By solving the objective function of the framework, total system costs to restore the reduction are estimated to be up to 248,700 million dollars under a Representative Concentration Pathway of 2.6 (RCP2.6) and 697,073 million dollars under RCP8.5 for standard employment, while less costs found for non-standard employment. However, non-standard employment tends to restore productivity reduction with the minimum system cost by implementing active measures rather than passive measures due to the low labor costs resulting from ambiguities among employment statuses. The situation could result in more heat-related work injuries because employers in non-standard employment can avoid the obligation of providing a safe working environment. Urgent actions are needed to uphold labor productivity with climate change, especially to ensure that employers from non-standard employment fulfill their statutory obligations.