This study investigates the influence of government expenditure on the economic growth of the ASEAN-5 countries from 2000 to 2021. The study employs the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) ARDL model and robust least squares method. The importance of the current study lies in its analysis of the short and long-run impact of government expenditure on economic growth in ASEAN-5. The empirical findings demonstrate a positive relationship between government expenditure and economic growth in the long run. These results align with the Keynesian perspective, asserting that government expenditure stimulates economic growth. The study also confirms one-way causality from government expenditure to economic growth, supporting the Keynesian hypothesis. These insights hold significance for policymakers in the ASEAN-5, highlighting the necessity for policies promoting the effective allocation of productive government expenditure. Moreover, it is important to enhance systems that promote economic growth and efficiently allocated economic resources toward productive expenditures while also maintaining effective governance over such expenditures.

This study conducts a comparative analysis of various machine learning and deep learning models for predicting order quantities in supply chain tiers. The models employed include XGBoost, Random Forest, CNN-BiLSTM, Linear Regression, Support Vector Regression (SVR), K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), Bidirectional LSTM (BiLSTM), Bidirectional GRU (BiGRU), Conv1D-BiLSTM, Attention-LSTM, Transformer, and LSTM-CNN hybrid models. Experimental results show that the XGBoost, Random Forest, CNN-BiLSTM, and MLP models exhibit superior predictive performance. In particular, the XGBoost model demonstrates the best results across all performance metrics, attributed to its effective learning of complex data patterns and variable interactions. Although the KNN model also shows perfect predictions with zero error values, this indicates a need for further review of data processing procedures or model validation methods. Conversely, the BiLSTM, BiGRU, and Transformer models exhibit relatively lower performance. Models with moderate performance include Linear Regression, RNN, Conv1D-BiLSTM, Attention-LSTM, and the LSTM-CNN hybrid model, all displaying relatively higher errors and lower coefficients of determination (R²). As a result, tree-based models (XGBoost, Random Forest) and certain deep learning models like CNN-BiLSTM are found to be effective for predicting order quantities in supply chain tiers. In contrast, RNN-based models (BiLSTM, BiGRU) and the Transformer show relatively lower predictive power. Based on these results, we suggest that tree-based models and CNN-based deep learning models should be prioritized when selecting predictive models in practical applications.

Global warming is a problem that affects humanity; hence, crisis management in the face of natural events is necessary. The aim of the research was to analyze the passage of Hurricane Otis through Acapulco from the theoretical perspective of crisis management, to understand the socio-environmental, economic, and decision-making challenges. For data collection, content analysis and hemerographic review proved useful, complemented by theoretical contrastation. Findings revealed failures in communication by various government actors; the unprecedented growth of Hurricane Otis led to a flawed crisis management. Among the physical, economic, environmental, and social impacts, the latter stands out due to the humanitarian crisis overflow. It is the first time that Acapulco, despite having a tradition in risk management against hydrometeorological events, faces a hurricane of magnitude five on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Ultimately, the city was unprepared to face a category five hydrometeorological event; institutional responses were overwhelmed by the complexity of the crisis, and the community came together to improve its environment and make it habitable again.

Catastrophes, like earthquakes, bring sudden and severe damage, causing fatalities, injuries, and property loss. This often triggers a rapid increase in insurance claims. These claims can encompass various types, such as life insurance claims for deaths, health insurance claims for injuries, and general insurance claims for property damage. For insurers offering multiple types of coverage, this surge in claims can pose a risk of financial losses or bankruptcy. One option for insurers is to transfer some of these risks to reinsurance companies. Reinsurance companies will assess the potential losses due to a catastrophe event, then issue catastrophe reinsurance contracts to insurance companies. This study aims to construct a valuation model for catastrophe reinsurance contracts that can cover claim losses arising from two types of insurance products. Valuation in this study is done using the Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing, which is the expected present value of the number of claims that occur during the reinsurance coverage period. The number of catastrophe events during the reinsurance coverage period is assumed to follow a Poisson process. Each impact of a catastrophe event, such as the number of fatalities and injuries that cause claims, is represented as random variables, and modeled using Peaks Over Threshold (POT). This study uses Clayton, Gumbel, and Frank copulas to describe various dependence characteristics between random variables. The parameters of the POT model and copula are estimated using Inference Functions for Margins method. After estimating the model parameters, Monte Carlo simulations are performed to obtain numerical solutions for the expected value of catastrophe reinsurance based on the Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing. The expected reinsurance value based on Monte Carlo simulations using Indonesian earthquake data from 1979–2021 is Rp 10,296,819,838.

The article presents a study of the connectivity and integration of sovereign bond and stock markets in 10 BRICS+ countries in the context of crisis instabilities in 2019−2024. Financial markets are becoming more integrated, and an increasing share of public investments are carried out across borders, which increases not only the opportunities for participants, but also the risks of a new crisis. The work used data on central bank rates of the considered countries, yield indices of 10-year government bonds, gold and Brent oil prices. The methods include the analysis of exchange rate dynamics, connectivity estimates based on the multivariate concordance coefficient and two-factor Friedman rank variance analysis, VAR models, Granger predictability and cointegration. The objective of this study is to analyze the interrelationship and cointegration between the sovereign bond and equity markets of selected BRICS+ countries during crisis periods. Our findings indicate that market interrelationship intensifies during crises, which in turn amplifies volatility. Additionally, we observed that none of the economies within the BRICS+ group can be classified as fully integrated or entirely isolated markets. The disruption of the interrelationship in the sovereign bond markets of the group is primarily reflected in the inconsistency of dynamic changes between Russia, China, and India. During the global shock of 2019–2020, the crisis spread from China, followed by Indonesia, and later to the other countries of the group. The financial and debt markets of the sampled countries were able to quickly cope with the severe shocks of the COVID-2019 period. The 2022–2024 crisis, which lasted significantly longer, began in Russia before spreading to countries across Asia and Africa. By 2024, Russia’s sovereign bond yields showed a marked decline. The increased market volatility following 2022 disrupted the integration and interrelationship of the stock and debt markets within the BRICS+ countries.

A The meaning of life is the purpose that defines a person’s existence based on a set of fundamental objectives that give meaning to life or not. Furthermore, not all individuals have a meaning in life, and it may be absent at some point or stage of life. Objective: To analyze Peruvian older adults’ socioeconomic factors and the meaning of life. Method: A descriptive, comparative, quantitative cross-sectional study was conducted. One thousand older adults were intentionally selected through quotas of 100 older adults in 10 localities in Arequipa, Peru. They were administered a survey validated with high levels of reliability on the meaning of life and socioeconomic factors. Results: A moderate level of meaning in life was found. Most older adults believe that increasing age decreases the purpose of living, and existential emptiness grows. Conclusions: Statistically significant differences (p < 0.05) were found between the meaning of life and the following socioeconomic factors: retirement, religion, educational level, cohabitation, marital status, income, and occupation. It is understood that older adults who scored higher on these factors indicate having meaning in life because they still fulfill the role of providers for the family economy, being util to their families compared to the majority who scored low, which indicates an absence of meaning of life leading to an increase existential void.