As a key factor in the macroeconomic process, the interaction between public confidence and the commodity market, especially its impact on commodity facilitation returns and macroeconomic linkages, is worth exploring in depth. This study adopts the TVP-SV-VAR model to analyze the causal linkages, dynamic characteristics, and mechanisms of the interaction, and reveals the following core findings: (1) The economic background and information shocks contribute to the variations in the effects and orientations of the economic variables, which highlight the time-varying nature of the economic interactions. (2) Consumer and investor confidence exert heterogeneous influence on the macroeconomy, and their different responses to the negative effect of interest rates and convenience gains are particularly significant in the post-crisis recovery period. (3) In the short-term perspective, the influence of public confidence on monetary policy and inflation exceeds that in the medium and long term, highlighting the immediate sensitivity of individual economic behavior. (4) Since 2015, accommodative monetary policy has accelerated market capital flows, delaying the interaction between confidence indices and inflation, revealing policy time lag effects. (5) Convenience gains exhibit complex time-varying interactions with key economic parameters (interest rates, commodity prices, and inflation), with 2011 and 2014 displaying particular patterns, mapping differences between short- and long-term mechanisms, respectively. The study highlights the central role of consumer and investor confidence in the precise tailoring of macroeconomic policies, providing a scientific basis for policy forecasting and economic regulation, and contributing to economic stability. Meanwhile, the dynamic evolution of consumer confidence deepens market trend foresight, enhances the precision of market participants’ decision-making, and reinforces the resilience and predictability of economic operations.
This study explores the interactions between inflation and stock market. We carried out a bibliometric analysis with R package to highlight the worldwide research trends in the field, covering the period of three crises (financial, health crisis and war of Ukraine). Next, using monthly data for the period from 1 March 2020 to 31 August 2023 and based on a vector autoregressive model, impulse response and variance decomposition are performed to explore the dynamic relationships between inflation and Greek stock market. The results reveal the existence of high volatility in Athens’ stock market during COVID-19 pandemic, owning to a shock of the inflation. Regarding the period of Ukrainian war, the study verified the Fama’s hypothesis that there is a negative relationship between inflation and stock returns. The findings have significant implications for investors and policy makers.
This paper aims to investigate the determinants of performance for insurance companies in Tunisia from 2004 to 2017. Namely, we consider three dimensions of determinants; those related to firms’ microenvironment, macroenvironment and meso or industry environment. The performance of insurance companies is measured using three criteria: Return On Assets (ROA), Return On Equity (ROE), and Combined Ratio. The independent variables are categorized into three groups: microeconomic variables (Firm Size, Financial leverage, Capital management risk, Volume of capital, and Age of the firm), meso-economic variables (Concentration ratio and Insurance Sector Size), and macroeconomic variables (Inflation, Unemployment, and Population Growth). The General Least Squares (GLS) regression technique is employed for the analysis. The study reveals that the financial performance of Tunisian insurance companies is positively influenced by firm size, capital amount, and risk capital management. On the other hand, it is negatively influenced by leverage level, industry size, concentration index, inflation, and unemployment. In terms of technical performance, the capital amount of the firm, industry size, age of the firm, and population growth have a positive impact. However, firm size, leverage, concentration index, and risk capital management negatively affect technical performance. This paper contributes to the existing literature by examining the determinants of performance specifically for insurance companies in Tunisia. Besides the classical proxies of performance, this paper has the originality of using the technical performance which is the most suitable for the case of Insurance companies.
In this regard the key factor determining the success of the mining industry is the cost of electricity. By understanding the risks associated with crypto mining industry. The method is based on systemic literature review and bibliometric analysis exploring keyword “bitcoin mining”. This review paper studies 50 papers for the period of 2019–2023. The results propose recommendations for crypto miners. Currently, the results confirm that bitcoin mainly depends on the consumption of inexpensive electricity. Consequently, the bitcoin network predominantly uses energy in regions where it is abundant and cannot be stored or exported. Most miners rely on electricity generated from hydroelectric power plants, geysers and geothermal sources, which are not easy to transport or store. Bitcoin will continue to look for such cost-effective and underutilized energy sources, as mining in urban areas or industrial centers will remain financially unviable. If the price of bitcoin stabilizes and a sufficient number of miners enter the market, it is quite possible that in the near future we may witness a fivefold increase in their energy consumption.
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