China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) hopes to deliver trillions of dollars in infrastructure financing to Asia, Europe, and Africa. If the initiative follows Chinese practices to date for infrastructure financing, which often entail lending to sovereign borrowers, then BRI raises the risk of debt distress in some borrower countries. This paper assesses the likelihood of debt problems in the 68 countries identified as potential BRI borrowers. We conclude that eight countries are at particular risk of debt distress based on an identified pipeline of project lending associated with BRI.

Because this indebtedness also suggests a higher concentration in debt owed to official and quasi-official Chinese creditors, we examine Chinese policies and practices related to sustainable financing and the management of debt problems in borrower countries. Based on this evidence, we offer recommendations to improve Chinese policy in these areas. The recommendations are offered to Chinese policymakers directly, as well as to BRI’s bilateral and multilateral partners, including the IMF and World Bank. 

Chinese multinational enterprises (MNEs) have increasingly engaged in outward foreign direct investment in recent years, and particularly into the infrastructure sector of developing economies. This has been prompted by the infrastructure-led economic integration plan of China’s Belt and Road Initiative. However, such collaboration faces many challenges. Infrastructure projects are often undertaken in industries, countries, and regions posing particular and difficult challenges, and with divergent, often conflicting interests, with the ensuing conclusion that the MNE is simply exploiting the project and not delivering value to the host country. Overall, not only does the infrastructure project have to be well-functioning with expected returns (or savings) realized, but these projects face close scrutiny from local communities, labor, opposition parties, neighboring countries, and various international bodies and nonprofits, requiring delicate handling of the principals involved. The unfolding of these issues and their management by the multinational are examined through an in-depth longitudinal case study. The data are drawn from major participants and stakeholders around a leading Chinese MNE and the mega project of the construction of a major hydropower plant in Pakistan.