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Oct 20, 2023

A Quantitative Study of Alliance Structures in the Three Kingdoms of Ancient China, 208-280 AD

The Three Kingdoms period of ancient China (208-280 AD) refers to the period between Eastern Han (25–220 AD) and Jin dynasties (266–420), during which China was divided into Shu (221-263 AD), Wei (220-266 AD) and Wu (222-280 AD) kingdoms, and then united as Jin dynasty. This paper constructs the quarterly series of alliance structures between the Three Kingdoms. By collecting and analyzing a total of two hundred and eighty-nine quarterly observations, the paper shows that the three most frequent alliance structures are ρ0: 1) the finest partition or no-alliance structure with 192 partitions; 2) Three partitions with Shu-Jin alliance and Wu singletion with 57 partions; 3) Wei-Wu alliance and one singletion Shu with 12 partions. It also shows that the observed changes in alliance structures were the consequence of a total of fifteen major battles fought by the three kingdoms. Such results serve as a contribution to the studies of applied game theory, alliance study, and the economic and military histories in ancient China.

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Mar 22, 2019

Deriving macroeconomic benefits from public–private partnerships in developing Asia

The provision of infrastructure and related services in developing Asia via public–private partnership (PPP) increased rapidly during the late 1990s. Theoretical arguments support the potential economic benefits of PPPs, but empirical evidence is thin. This paper develops a framework identifying channels through which economic gains can be derived from PPP arrangement. The framework helps derive an empirically tractable specification that examines how PPPs affect the aggregate economy. Empirical results suggest that increasing the ratio of PPP investment to GDP improves access to and quality of infrastructure services, and economic growth will potentially be higher. But this optimism is conditional, especially on the region’s efforts to further upgrade its technical and institutional capacity to handle complex PPP contracts.

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Mar 2, 2018

Lean, Clean and Green: A new model of multilateral development bank for building infrastructure in Asia and beyond—An interview with AIIB President Jin Liqun

Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank’s president Mr. Jin Liqun shares with JIPD Editor-in-Chief, Dr. Gu Qingyang, his passion for infrastructure finance, as he reflects upon his goal of steering an environmentally friend and corruption-free AIIB toward building social-impacting infrastructure across Asia.
From governmental departments to international financial institutes, Mr. Jin Liqun has undertaken almost every essential role in finance. With his vast experience across the private and public sectors, particularly in multilateral development banks, Mr. Jin Liqun currently serves as Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB)’s first President since its founding in 2016, following a stint as Secretary-General of the Multilateral Interim Secretariat created to establish the bank. Beginning from his two decades of governmental experience at the Chinese Ministry of Finance, rising from the rank of Deputy Director General to Vice Minister, Mr. Jin was then called to serve as Vice President, and then Ranking Vice President, of the Asian Development Bank, and later as Alternate Executive Director for China at the World Bank and at the Global Environment Facility. Mr. Jin had also served as Chairman of China International Capital Corporation Ltd., China’s first joint-venture investment bank, in addition to serving as Chairman of the Supervisory Board of the sovereign wealth fund China Investment Corporation and as Chairman of the International Forum of Sovereign Wealth Funds.

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Apr 11, 2019

Rising incomes and inequality of access to infrastructure among Latin American Households

The question of infrastructure needs is a crucial policy one in Latin America, given evidence of large access shortfalls across all major types of infrastructure, and the increase in demand linked to the rapid growth in households’ income over the past two decades. However, how much and how fast countries should invest in each of the main infrastructure areas are largely speculative, as to date, literature on investment needs has relied exclusively on aggregate data and cross-country regressions, ignoring both potential policy and supply-side differences across settings, and variations in demand along the income distribution. This paper addresses these shortcomings, providing building blocks to better assess infrastructure investment needs across the region. It does so documenting access to services and ownership of infrastructure-related durables in the water, energy, telecom, and transport areas, based on harmonized household survey data covering 1.6 million households in 14 Latin American countries from 1992 to –2012. It provides a systematic disaggregation of access and ownership rates at different levels of income and over time, and econometrically derives the country infrastructure premium, a measure of how much a household benefits from simply being located in a given country. Within countries, the results show extensive inequality of access across the income distribution, but this is also the case for households at similar levels of income across countries. Few country fundamentals appear to be significant in explaining this variability, pointing to differences in policy choices and local constraints as important determinants. The paper derives disaggregated income elasticity measures for the full set of infrastructure indicators and uses these to estimate the time that would be needed to close the remaining gap for households at different levels of the income distribution in each country under a “business as usual” hypothesis. Under that scenario, universal access appears to still be decades away for many countries in the region. The last part discusses the policy challenges, arguing that in a context in which public budgets face strong constraints and significant increases in private investment are unlikely to be forthcoming, a large part of the solution lies in refocused investment strategies, better demand management, and improved public spending efficiency.

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Nov 7, 2018

Filling the gap: Infrastructure investment in Brazil

Infrastructure bottlenecks have been identified as a key obstacle to growth affecting productivity and market efficiency, and hindering domestic integration and export performance. This paper assesses the state of Brazil’s infrastructure, in light of past investment trends and various quality and quantity indicators. Brazil’s infrastructure stock and its quality rank low in relation to that of comparator countries, chosen amongst main export competitors. We provide evidence that infrastructure affects domestic integration by analyzing price convergence of tradable goods across major cities. The government’s concession program will narrow part of the infrastructure gap, however, governance reforms will be crucial to improving investment efficiency.

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Dec 24, 2024

Competition, innovation, and consumer trends in the digital economy

This review paper delves into the intricate landscape of the digital economy, focusing on the multifaceted interplay between innovation, competition, and consumer dynamics. It investigates the transformative impact of digital technologies on market structures and consumer behaviors, spanning areas such as e-commerce, online publishing, taxation, and big data challenges. By analyzing network effects, market concentration, and the influence of key players like Google and Amazon, this study draws on insights from previous research. Furthermore, it examines evolving regulations with an emphasis on consumer protection, competition law, and privacy concerns. Through a comprehensive exploration of the digital ecosystem, this paper offers a nuanced understanding of how businesses, consumers, and policymakers navigate the complexities of the digital marketplace.

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