This study investigates seismic risk and potential impacts of future earthquakes in the Sunda Strait region, known for its susceptibility to significant seismic events due to the subduction of the Indo-Australian Plate beneath the Eurasian Plate. The aim is to assess the likelihood of major earthquakes, estimate their impact, and propose strategies to mitigate associated risks. The research uses historical seismic data and probabilistic models to forecast earthquakes with magnitudes ranging from 6.0 to 8.2 Mw. The Gutenberg-Richter model helps project potential earthquake occurrences and their impacts. The findings suggest that the probability of a major earthquake could occur as early as 2026–2027, with a more significant event estimated to likely occur around 2031. Economic estimates for a 7.8–8.2 Mw earthquake suggest potential damage of up to USD 1.255 billion with significant loss of life. The study identifies key vulnerabilities, such as inadequate building foundations and ineffective disaster management infrastructure, which could worsen the impact of future seismic events. In conclusion, the research highlights the urgent need for comprehensive seismic risk mitigation strategies. Recommendations include reinforcing infrastructure to comply with seismic standards, implementing advanced early warning systems, and enhancing public education on earthquake preparedness. Additionally, government policies must address these issues by increasing funding for disaster management, enforcing building regulations, and incorporating traditional knowledge into construction practices. These measures are essential to reducing future earthquake impacts and improving community resilience.

How are telecommunications infrastructure, institutions and poverty related in a war-torn economy such as Afghanistan? Afghanistan has been plagued by poor governance, low usage of telecommunications, and extreme poverty levels which can be termed triple-challenges. High levels of political instability affected telecommunications investment and adversely affected the adoption and diffusion of modern technology. This study examines the asymmetric effect of telecommunications and governance (institutions) on poverty reduction over the period 1989–2019 using a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model. In the short run, we establish that information and communication technology, private domestic credit, governance, and educational access for males and females are essential tools that can be used for poverty reduction. In the long run, we also establish that Afghanistan can reduce poverty levels through the use of information and communication technology, governance, and educational access for both males and females. The following policy recommendations were suggested: research and development, robust policy formulation on governance and ICT, development of the ICT sector, and improved governance. These are critical in reducing the high poverty levels as well as solving the institutional challenges faced by Afghanistan.

This study examines the aggregate consumption function of Saudi Arabia from 2000 to 2022, focusing on identifying key determinants of household consumption and evaluating the impacts of disposable income, household wealth, government expenditure, interest rates, and oil revenues. the research uses advanced econometric methods, including the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model and Johansen cointegration test, to analyze the relationships among these variables. the findings reveal that disposable income, household wealth, and government expenditure significantly and positively influence consumption, whereas interest rates show a negative correlation. oil revenues also play a critical role, reflecting the country’s economic reliance on oil. the study highlights the necessity for economic diversification to reduce the impact of oil price volatility on household income and consumption stability. The results offer crucial insights for policymakers, emphasizing the need for strategies that enhance household income and wealth, maintain robust public sector spending, and effectively manage interest rates. these findings also support the importance of consistent and predictable income sources for sustaining consumption. additionally, this study suggests directions for future research, including developing sophisticated forecasting models to predict consumption trends and exploring other influencing factors such as demographic shifts and technological progress.

China-Africa economic integration generally looks lucid, as evidenced by rising bilateral trade, as well as Chinese FDI, aid, and debt financing for infrastructure development in Africa. The engagement, however, appears to be strategically channeled to benefit China’s resource endowment strategy. First, Chinese FDI in Africa is primarily resource-seeking, with minimum manufacturing value addition. Second, China has successfully replicated the Angola model in other resource-rich African countries, and most infrastructure loans-for-natural resources barter deals are said to be undervalued. There is also a resource-backed loan arrangement in place, in which default Chinese loans are repaid in natural resources. Third, while China claims that its financial aid is critical to Africa’s growth and development processes, a significant portion of the aid is spent on non-development projects such as building parliaments and government buildings. This lend credence to the notion that China uses aid to gain diplomatic recognition from African leaders, with resource-rich and/or institutionally unstable countries being the most targeted. The preceding arguments support why Africa’s exports to China dominate other China’s financial flows to Africa, and consist mainly of natural resources. Accordingly, this study aims to forecast China-Africa economic integration through the lens of China’s demand for natural resources and Africa’s demand for capital, both of which are reflected in Africa’s exports to China. The study used a MODWT-ARIMA hybrid forecasting technique to account for the short period of available China-Africa bilateral trade dataset (1992–2021), and found that Africa’s exports to China are likely to decline from US$ 119.20 billion in 2022 to US$ 13.68 billion in 2026 on average. This finding coincides with a period in which Chinese demand for Africa’s natural resources is expected to decline.

The article is devoted to formulation of theoretical principles and practical recommendations regarding organization and planning of the investigation of criminal offenses in the field of economic activity, which are committed with the participation (assistance) of law enforcement officers. The methodology for the article is chosen taking into account the purpose and tasks, object and subject matter of the study. The research results were obtained with the help of the following methods: dialectical; formal and logical; formal and legal; comparative and legal; historical and legal, complex analysis; analysis and synthesis; axiomatic; system and structural method. The obtained results of the study indicated that organization and planning of the investigation of criminal acts under consideration is a purposeful activity of the authorized bodies, which is carried out under the guidance of the investigator, detective of the pre-trial investigation body. These activities require systematic, comprehensive approach and must take into account a wide range of circumstances that can affect the process and results of the investigation: the nature of the criminal offense, access to the necessary financial, human and technical resources; the competence of the investigator, the detective; terms and deadlines for investigation and presenting materials to the court, establishing effective cooperation between competent authorities. The study highlights the peculiarities of the organization and planning of the investigation of criminal offenses in economic activities, when law enforcement officers are involved, and suggests directions for improving the effectiveness of their implementation.

The role of technology in stimulating economic growth needs to be reexamined considering current heightened economic conditions of Asian developing Economies. This study conducts a comparative analysis of technology proxied by R&D expenditures alongside macroeconomic variables crucial for economic growth. Monthly time-series data from 1990 to 2019 were analyzed using a vector error correction model (VECM), revealing a significant impact of technology on the economic growth of India, Pakistan, and the Philippines. However, in the cases of Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Bangladesh, macroeconomic indicators were found more crucial to their economic growth. Results of Granger causality underlined the relationship of R&D expenditures and macroeconomic variables with GDP growth rates. Sensitivity analyses endorsed robustness of the results which highlighted the significance and originality of this study in economic growth aligned with sustainable development goals (SDGs) for developing countries.