To fight inflation, European Central Bank (ECB) announced 10 successive interest rate hikes, starting on 27 July 2022, igniting an unprecedented widening of interest rate spreads in the euro area (ΕΑ). Greek banks, however, recorded among the highest interest rate spreads, far exceeding ΕΑ median and weighted average. Indeed, we document a strong asymmetric response of Greek banks to ECB interest rate hikes, with loan interest rates rising immediately, whilst deposit interest rates remained initially unchanged and then rose sluggishly. As a result, the interest rate spread hit one historical record after another. Greek systemic banks, probably taking advantage of the high concentration and low competition in the domestic sector benefited from key ECB interest rate hikes, recording gigantic increases in net interest income (NII), and consequently, substantial profits (almost €7.4 billion in the 2022–2023 biennium). Such excessive accumulation of profits (that deteriorates the living conditions of consumers) by the banking system could be called the inflation of “banking greed”, or bankflation. This new source of inflation created by the oligopolistic structure of the Greek banking sector counterworks the very reason for ECB interest rate increases and requires certain policy analysis recommendations in coping with it.
This study explores the interactions between inflation and stock market. We carried out a bibliometric analysis with R package to highlight the worldwide research trends in the field, covering the period of three crises (financial, health crisis and war of Ukraine). Next, using monthly data for the period from 1 March 2020 to 31 August 2023 and based on a vector autoregressive model, impulse response and variance decomposition are performed to explore the dynamic relationships between inflation and Greek stock market. The results reveal the existence of high volatility in Athens’ stock market during COVID-19 pandemic, owning to a shock of the inflation. Regarding the period of Ukrainian war, the study verified the Fama’s hypothesis that there is a negative relationship between inflation and stock returns. The findings have significant implications for investors and policy makers.
Copyright © by EnPress Publisher. All rights reserved.