Accurate prediction of US Treasury bond yields is crucial for investment strategies and economic policymaking. This paper explores the application of advanced machine learning techniques, specifically Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models, in forecasting these yields. By integrating key economic indicators and policy changes, our approach seeks to enhance the precision of yield predictions. Our study demonstrates the superiority of LSTM models over traditional RNNs in capturing the temporal dependencies and complexities inherent in financial data. The inclusion of macroeconomic and policy variables significantly improves the models’ predictive accuracy. This research underscores a pioneering movement for the legacy banking industry to adopt artificial intelligence (AI) in financial market prediction. In addition to considering the conventional economic indicator that drives the fluctuation of the bond market, this paper also optimizes the LSTM to handle situations when rate hike expectations have already been priced-in by market sentiment.
The financial services industry is experiencing a swift adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning for a variety of applications. These technologies can be employed by both public and private sector entities to ensure adherence to regulatory requirements, monitor activities, evaluate data accuracy, and identify instances of fraudulent behavior. The utilization of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) has the potential to provide novel and unforeseen manifestations of interconnectivity within financial markets and institutions. This can be represented by the adoption of previously disparate data sources by diverse institutions. The researchers employed convenience sampling as the sampling method. The form was filled out over the period spanning from July 2023 to February 2024, and it was designed to be both anonymous and accessible through online and offline platforms. To assess the reliability and validity of the measurement scales and evaluate the structural model, we employed Partial Least Squares (PLS) for model validation. Specifically, we have used the software package Smart-PLS 3 with a bootstrapping of 5000 samples to estimate the significance of the parameters. The results indicate a positive and direct connection between artificial intelligence (AI) and either financial services or financial institutions. On the contrary, machine learning (ML) exhibits a strong and positive association among financial services and financial institutions. Similarly, there exists a positive and direct connection between AI and investors, as well as between ML and investors.
The construction of researcher profiles is crucial for modern research management and talent assessment. Given the decentralized nature of researcher information and evaluation challenges, we propose a profile system for Chinese researchers based on unsupervised machine learning and algorithms. This system builds comprehensive profiles based on researchers’ basic and behavior information dimensions. It employs Selenium and Web Crawler for real-time data retrieval from academic platforms, utilizes TF-IDF and BERT for expertise recognition, DTM for academic dynamics, and K-means clustering for profiling. The experimental results demonstrate that these methods are capable of more accurately mining the academic expertise of researchers and performing domain clustering scoring, thereby providing a scientific basis for the selection and academic evaluation of research talents. This interactive analysis system aims to provide an intuitive platform for profile construction and analysis.
Among contemporary computational techniques, Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) are favoured because of their capacity to tackle non-linear modelling and complex stochastic datasets. Nondeterministic models involve some computational intricacies when deciphering real-life problems but always yield better outcomes. For the first time, this study utilized the ANN and ANFIS models for modelling power generation/electric power output (EPO) from databases generated in a combined cycle power plant (CCPP). The study presents a comparative study between ANNs and ANFIS to estimate the power output generation of a combined cycle power plant in Turkey. The inputs of the ANN and ANFIS models are ambient temperature (AT), ambient pressure (AP), relative humidity (RH), and exhaust vacuum (V), correlated with electric power output. Several models were developed to achieve the best architecture as the number of hidden neurons varied for the ANNs, while the training process was conducted for the ANFIS model. A comparison of the developed hybrid models was completed using statistical criteria such as the coefficient of determination (R2), mean average error (MAE), and average absolute deviation (AAD). The R2 of 0.945, MAE of 3.001%, and AAD of 3.722% for the ANN model were compared to those of R2 of 0.9499, MAE of 2.843% and AAD of 2.842% for the ANFIS model. Even though both ANN and ANFIS are relevant in estimating and predicting power production, the ANFIS model exhibits higher superiority compared to the ANN model in accurately estimating the EPO of the CCPP located in Turkey and its environment.
In this paper, we assess the results of experiment with different machine learning algorithms for the data classification on the basis of accuracy, precision, recall and F1-Score metrics. We collected metrics like Accuracy, F1-Score, Precision, and Recall: From the Neural Network model, it produced the highest Accuracy of 0.129526 also highest F1-Score of 0.118785, showing that it has the correct balance of precision and recall ratio that can pick up important patterns from the dataset. Random Forest was not much behind with an accuracy of 0.128119 and highest precision score of 0.118553 knit a great ability for handling relations in large dataset but with slightly lower recall in comparison with Neural Network. This ranked the Decision Tree model at number three with a 0.111792, Accuracy Score while its Recall score showed it can predict true positives better than Support Vector Machine (SVM), although it predicts more of the positives than it actually is a majority of the times. SVM ranked fourth, with accuracy of 0.095465 and F1-Score of 0.067861, the figure showing difficulty in classification of associated classes. Finally, the K-Neighbors model took the 6th place, with the predetermined accuracy of 0.065531 and the unsatisfactory results with the precision and recall indicating the problems of this algorithm in classification. We found out that Neural Networks and Random Forests are the best algorithms for this classification task, while K-Neighbors is far much inferior than the other classifiers.
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