Analysing external factors with a design-thinking approach is crucial for adaptation, identifying opportunities, and mitigating risks in native digital enterprises. This research introduces a framework rooted in design principles and future scenarios for external analysis, with the aim of meeting current market needs. The study employs a mixed qualitative-quantitative research approach, incorporating methods such as literature review, workshops, and surveys. These methods enable the collection and analysis of both qualitative and quantitative data, providing a comprehensive and accurate understanding of the research topic by using it in a DNVB case study. Developing a conceptual framework using a design-thinking approach which we call ASPECT contributes to a comprehensive interpretation of complexity, intertwining collective and individual factors. This reduces the risk of overlooking essential elements when making strategic decisions in ambiguous, uncertain, and volatile contexts. This method contrasts with traditional external analysis frameworks like CAME, Pestle, and SWOT. The document aims to contribute to the literature by exploring new models of external analysis based on the design process. This framework combines the conventional stages of a design thinking process with methodologies for future scenarios to identify relevant external factors for organizations. It provides an innovative conceptual framework for creating new business models and growth strategies for digital enterprises.

Oil spills (OS) in waters can have major consequences for the ecosystem and adjacent natural resources. Therefore, recognizing the OS spread pattern is crucial for supporting decision-making in disaster management. On 31 March 2018, an OS occurred in Balikpapan Bay, Indonesia, due to a ship's anchor rupturing a seafloor crude oil petroleum pipe. The purpose of this study is to investigate the propagation of crude OS using coupled three-dimensional (3D) model from DHI MIKE software and remote sensing data from Sentinel-1 SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar). MIKE3 FM predicts and simulates the 3D sea circulation, while MIKE OS models the path of oil's fate concentration. The OS model could identify the temporal and spatial distribution of OS concentration in subsurface layers. To validate the model, in situ observations were made of oil stranded on the shore. On 1 April 2018, at 21:50 UTC, Sentinel-1 SAR detected an OS on the sea surface covering 203.40 km². The OS model measures 137.52 km². Both methods resulted in a synergistic OS exposure of 314.23 km². Wind dominantly influenced the OS propagation on the sea surface, as detected by the SAR image, while tidal currents primarily affected the oil movement within the subsurface simulated by the OS model. Thus, the two approaches underscored the importance of synergizing the DHI MIKE model with remote sensing data to comprehensively understand OS distribution in semi-enclosed waters like Balikpapan Bay detected by SAR.

To address the escalating online romance scams within telecom fraud, we developed an Adaptive Random Forest Light Gradient Boosting (ARFLGB)-XGBoost early warning system. Our method involves compiling detailed Online Romance Scams (ORS) incident data into a 24-variable dataset, categorized to analyze feature importance with Random Forest and LightGBM models. An innovative adaptive algorithm, the Adaptive Random Forest Light Gradient Boosting, optimizes these features for integration with XGBoost, enhancing early Online romance scams threat detection. Our model showed significant performance improvements over traditional models, with accuracy gains of 3.9%, a 12.5% increase in precision, recall improvement by 5%, an F1 score increase by 5.6%, and a 5.2% increase in Area Under the Curve (AUC). This research highlights the essential role of advanced fraud detection in preserving communication network integrity, contributing to a stable economy and public safety, with implications for policymakers and industry in advancing secure communication infrastructure.

This study examines the bottleneck effect of logistics performance on Vietnam’s imports, utilizing bilateral trade data from 2007 to 2022. We evaluate the impact of logistics performance on imports of Vietnam using the augmented gravity model and a random effects estimator. Our findings reveal that the minimum logistics performance between Vietnam and its trading partners has a significantly positive impact on the Vietnamese imports. The magnitude of its bottleneck effects is much larger than the influence of Vietnam’s individual logistics performance or deviations in performance with its trading partners. Recognizing the impact of logistics bottlenecks on international trade enables policymakers to develop more effective and efficient logistics-related policies for enhancing bilateral trade with trading partners.