Projects implemented under life cycle contracts have become increasingly common in recent years to ensure the quality of construction and maintenance of energy infrastructure facilities. A key parameter for energy facility construction projects implemented under life cycle contracts is their duration and deadlines. Therefore, the systematic identification, monitoring, and comprehensive assessment of risks affecting the timing of work on the design and construction is an urgent practical task. The purpose of this work is to study the strength of the influence of various risks on the duration of a project implemented on the terms of a life cycle contract. The use of the expert assessment method allows for identifying the most likely risks for the design and construction phases, as well as determining the ranges of deviations from the baseline indicator. Using the obtained expert evaluations, a model reflecting the range and the most probable duration of the design and construction works under the influence of risk events was built by the Monte-Carlo statistical method. The results obtained allow monitoring and promptly detecting deviations in the actual duration of work from the basic deadlines set in the life cycle contract. This will give an opportunity to accurately respond to emerging risks and build a mutually beneficial relationship between the parties to life cycle contracts.
Black Death is a virosis caused by the Tomato Spotted Wilt Virus (TSWV), transmitted by thrips, and represents a complex problem since weed hosts for thrips vectors and the virus is accentuated as virus reservoir and vector sustenance. The objective was to generate, from a list of weeds that act as hosts for the four vector thrips species in the horticultural belt of La Plata, a relative risk categorization as an epidemiological component. Between 2000 and 2003, three sites were selected within the horticultural belt of La Plata (Buenos Aires, Argentina) where flowers of 21 weed hosts of Frankliniella occidentalis, Frankliniella schultzei, Frankliniella gemina and Thrips tabaci were sampled monthly (60 in total). For analysis, the sampling results were grouped into three annual seasons, corresponding to the phenology of greenhouse crops in the region. For the four thrips vectors, the abundance of adult thrips and the presence of their larvae were considered using an unsupervised hierarchical cluster analysis and the DGC multivariate mean comparison test to obtain the number of significant groups. From this base grouping, three risk groups (RG) were defined as a source of inoculum for these vectors: high (H), medium (M) and low (L) according to the status of the reproductive host (RH). The groups that emerged were: (H): RH of F occidentalis, (M): RH of F. schultzei and T. tabaci, and (L): RH of F. gemina or non-vector thrips. Periodic survey and early flowering suppression of nine weed species categorized as high risk is proposed. This implies the continuous monitoring of three weed species, to which other companion weeds are added according to the growing season.
The design of effective flood risk mitigation strategies and their subsequent implementation is crucial for sustainable development in mountain areas. The assessment of the dynamic evolution of flood risk is the pillar of any subsequent planning process that is targeted at a reduction of the expected adverse consequences of the hazard impact. This study focuses on riverbed cities, aiming to analyze flood occurrences and their influencing factors. Through an extensive literature review, five key criteria commonly associated with flood events were identified: slope height, distance from rivers, topographic index, and runoff height. Utilizing the network analysis process within Super Decision software, these factors were weighted, and a final flood risk map was generated using the simple weighted sum method. 75% of the data was used for training, and 25% of it was used for testing. Additionally, vegetation changes were assessed using Landsat imagery from 2000 and 2022 and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). The focus of this research is Qirokarzin city as a case study of riverbed cities, situated in Fars province, with Qir city serving as its central hub. Key rivers in Qirokarzin city include the Qara Aghaj River, traversing the plain from north to south; the primary Mubarak Abad River, originating from the east; and the Dutulghaz River, which enters the eastern part of the plain from the southwest of Qir, contributing to plain nourishment during flood events. The innovation of this paper is that along with the objective to produce a reliable delineation of hazard zones, a functional distinction between the loading and the response system (LS and RS, respectively) is made. Results indicate the topographic index as the most influential criterion, delineating Qirokarzin city into five flood risk zones: very low, low, moderate, high, and very high. Notably, a substantial portion of Qirokarzin city (1849.8 square kilometers, 8.54% of the area) falls within high- to very-high flood risk zones. Weighting analysis reveals that the topographic humidity index and runoff height are the most influential criteria, with weights of 0.27 and 0.229, respectively. Conversely, the height criterion carries the least weight at 0.122. Notably, 46.7% of the study area exhibits high flood intensity, potentially attributed to variations in elevation and runoff height. Flood potential findings show that the middle class covers 32.3%, indicating moderate flood risk due to changes in elevation and runoff height. The low-level risk is observed sporadically from the east to the west of the study area, comprising 12.4%. Analysis of vegetation changes revealed a significant decline in forest and pasture cover despite agricultural and horticultural development, exacerbating flood susceptibility.
Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) are mostly presented as a means to introduce efficient procurement methods and better value for money to taxpayers. However, the complexity of the PPP mechanism, their lack of transparency, accounting rules and implicit liabilities make it often impossible to perceive the amount of public expenditure involved and the long-run impact on taxpayers, providing room for fiscal illusion, i.e., the illusion that PPPs are much less expensive than traditional public investments. This psaper, thanks to a systematic review of the literature on the EU countries experience, tries to unveil the sources of this illusion by looking at the reasons behind the PPPs’ choice, their real costs, and the sources of fiscal risks. The literature suggests that PPPs are more costly than public funding, especially when contingent liabilities are not taken into account, and are employed as mechanisms to circumvent budgetary restrictions and to spend off-balance. The paper concludes that the public sector should share more risks with private sectors by reducing the amount of guarantees, and should prevent governments from operating through a sleight of hand that deflects attention away from off-balance financing, by applying a neutral fiscal recording system.
This study is based on the theory of planned behaviour, and its aim is to understand the impact of doctoral pursuit intention on the doctoral preparatory behaviour of female teachers in independent colleges in China, as well as to determine the moderating effect of perceived risk between doctoral pursuit intention and doctoral preparatory behaviour. The participants in the study were female teachers from independent colleges in China, who were recruited between February and March 2024 based on convenience sampling. 776 valid questionnaires were obtained, and the data were analyzed using a hierarchical regression method. According to the results, a doctoral pursuit intention has a significant and positive predictive effect on doctoral preparatory behaviour, while the perceived risk has a significant and negative moderating effect between doctoral pursuit intention and doctoral preparatory behaviour. This indicates that female teachers with high doctoral pursuit intention more actively prepare to pursue a doctoral degree when the perceived risk is low, whereas the doctoral preparatory behaviour of those with high perceived risk shows a limited increase as their doctoral pursuit intention increases. Therefore, female teachers’ pursuit of a doctoral degree should be supported on an individual basis and analysed within the broader context of the transformation of independent colleges.
eGovernment projects are capital intensive and have high probability of failure because of the dynamic and technological laden environment in which they operate. The number of skilled labour and technicalities required are often not available in quantity needed to sustain such project. There is always the need to have in place adequate risk assessment framework to guide the execution and monitoring of eGovernment projects. Several studies have been conducted on the critical success factors relating to risk assessment of eGovernment projects to understand the reasons for the high rate of failure. Therefore, there is need to review these articles and categorize them into different research domain in project risk assessment so as to reveal domain with more or less research and those that need to understand the future research directions in risk assessment for eGovernment projects. Using the positivism paradigm, this study utilized the Systematic Literature Review methodology to collect 147 articles from the following academic databases namely IEEE, Preprints, WorldCat Discovery, ArXiv. Ohio-state University databases, Science Direct, Scopus, ACM, NWU digital library, Usenix, Jise database, Sagepub, MDPI Academia published between 2013 to 2023. Different inclusion and exclusion criteria were applied pruning to 48 articles that were used for the study. The results show the classification of articles in risk assessment for eGovernment projects into those that discusses project analysis, review, framework, maturity and model tools, implementation, and integration, applied methodology and evaluation with the percentage of articles published in each domain with the past 10 years. The various critical success factors that should be considered in the development of a robust risk assessment framework were discussed and future research directions in eGovernment risk assessment were given based on the reviews.
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