Heat stress amplified by climate change causes excessive reductions in labor capacity, work injuries, and socio-economic losses. Yet studies of corresponding impact assessments and adaptation developments are insufficient and incapable of effectively dealing with uncertain information. This gap is caused by the inability to resolve complex channels involving climate change, labor relations, and labor productivity. In this paper, an optimization-based productivity restoration modeling framework is developed to bridge the gap and support decision-makers in making informed adaptation plans. The framework integrates a multiple-climate-model ensemble, an empirical relationship between heat stress and labor capacity, and an inexact system costs model to investigate underlying uncertainties associated with climate and management systems. Optimal and reliable decision alternatives can be obtained by communicating uncertain information into the optimization processes and resolving multiple channels. Results show that the increased heat stress will lead to a potential reduction in labor productivity in China. By solving the objective function of the framework, total system costs to restore the reduction are estimated to be up to 248,700 million dollars under a Representative Concentration Pathway of 2.6 (RCP2.6) and 697,073 million dollars under RCP8.5 for standard employment, while less costs found for non-standard employment. However, non-standard employment tends to restore productivity reduction with the minimum system cost by implementing active measures rather than passive measures due to the low labor costs resulting from ambiguities among employment statuses. The situation could result in more heat-related work injuries because employers in non-standard employment can avoid the obligation of providing a safe working environment. Urgent actions are needed to uphold labor productivity with climate change, especially to ensure that employers from non-standard employment fulfill their statutory obligations.
With the intensification of the aging population trend, China is facing an increasingly growing demand for older adult care services. As an important field that meets the needs of the older adult, the development of the older adult care service industry is of significant importance for social stability and the well-being of the older adult. This paper examines the trends and optimization paths of the older adult care service industry in China. It aims to analyze the current situation, problems, and causes of the industry, and propose corresponding policy adjustment recommendations. Through comparative analysis of scholars’ viewpoints, the paper redefines the connotation and scope of the older adult care service industry, emphasizing the characteristics of its compound industrial system. The analysis reveals that the current Chinese older adult care service industry is characterized by a small scale, single functionality, narrow coverage, short industrial chain, and a lack of policy support and rational resource allocation. Policy adjustment recommendations are proposed, including top-level institutional design, improvement of the social security system, and the formation of a comprehensive industrial system, in order to promote the development of the older adult care service industry. These recommendations not only promote the expansion of industry scale and the expansion of functionality, but also enhance the quality and effectiveness of older adult care services to meet the diverse needs of the older adult. The value of this paper lies in its in-depth analysis of the current situation of the older adult care service industry in China and the proposal of specific and feasible policy adjustment recommendations, providing important guidance for government departments and practitioners. The research findings can provide beneficial references for the sustainable development of the older adult care service industry, further promoting the progress of the social economy and the healthy development of an aging society.
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