Accurate prediction of US Treasury bond yields is crucial for investment strategies and economic policymaking. This paper explores the application of advanced machine learning techniques, specifically Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models, in forecasting these yields. By integrating key economic indicators and policy changes, our approach seeks to enhance the precision of yield predictions. Our study demonstrates the superiority of LSTM models over traditional RNNs in capturing the temporal dependencies and complexities inherent in financial data. The inclusion of macroeconomic and policy variables significantly improves the models’ predictive accuracy. This research underscores a pioneering movement for the legacy banking industry to adopt artificial intelligence (AI) in financial market prediction. In addition to considering the conventional economic indicator that drives the fluctuation of the bond market, this paper also optimizes the LSTM to handle situations when rate hike expectations have already been priced-in by market sentiment.
The Republic of Moldova is a state with a small, but dynamic economy and which, with the help of competitiveness in the IT industry, is looking for a place on the economic market in the Eastern European region. The research approaches this topic from an economic, historical, but also geopolitical point of view. This analysis of economic data and figures from the last period, combined with government policies and that of the National Bank of Moldova, means that in the near future the software economic area of Moldova will become an important regional player in this part of Europe.
In rural areas, land use activities around primary arterial roads influence the road section’s traffic characteristics. Regulations dictate the design of primary arterial roads to accommodate high speeds. Hence, there is a mix of traffic between high-speed vehicles and vulnerable road users (pedestrians, bicycles, and motorcycles) around the land. As a result, researchers have identified several arterial roads in Indonesia as accident-prone areas. Therefore, to improve the road user’s safety on primary arterial roads, it is necessary to develop models of the influence of various factors on road traffic accidents. This research uses binary logistic regression analysis. The independent variables are carelessness, disorderliness, high speed, horizontal alignment, road width, clear zone, road shoulder width, signs, markings, and land use. Meanwhile, the dependent variable is the frequency of accidents, where the frequency of accidents consists of multi-accident vehicles (MAV) and single-accident vehicles (SAV). This study collects data for a traffic accident prediction model based on collision frequency in accident-prone areas. The results, road shoulder width, and road sign factor all have an impact on the frequency of traffic accidents. According to a realistic risk analysis, MAV and SAV have no risk difference. After validation, this model shows a confidence level of 92%. This demonstrates that the model generates estimations that accurately reflect reality and are applicable to a wider population. This research has the potential to assist engineers in improving road safety on primary arterial roads. In addition, the model can help the government measure the impact of implemented policies and engage the public in traffic accident prevention efforts.
This research presents a novel approach utilizing a self-enhanced chimp optimization algorithm (COA) for feature selection in crowdfunding success prediction models, which offers significant improvements over existing methods. By focusing on reducing feature redundancy and improving prediction accuracy, this study introduces an innovative technique that enhances the efficiency of machine learning models used in crowdfunding. The results from this study could have a meaningful impact on how crowdfunding campaigns are designed and evaluated, offering new strategies for creators and investors to increase the likelihood of campaign success in a rapidly evolving digital funding landscape.
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