This study aims to evaluate the relationship between financial resilience, exchange rate, inflation, and economic growth from 1996 to 2022 using secondary data from the World Bank. The analysis method uses vector autoregressive to understand the causality dynamics between these variables. The results show that past economic growth positively impacts current economic conditions, but an increase in the exchange rate can hinder economic growth. The exchange rate also tends to be influenced by previous values, but high economic growth does not always increase the exchange rate. Previous conditions significantly affect financial resilience and can be strengthened by a strong currency. Meanwhile, inflation has an inverse relationship with economic growth, where past inflation seems to suppress current inflation, which price stabilization policies can cause. From an institutional economics perspective, this study provides an understanding of the interaction between various economic factors in the structural framework and policies that regulate economic activities. The impulse response function (IRF) shows that economic growth can react strongly to sudden changes, although this reaction may not last long. The exchange rate fluctuates with economic changes, reflecting market optimism and uncertainty. Financial resilience may be strong initially but may weaken over time, indicating the need for policies to strengthen the financial system to ensure economic stability. Furthermore, the role of social capital in economic resilience is highlighted as it can amplify the positive effects of a robust institutional framework by fostering trust and collaboration among economic actors. Inflation reacts differently to economic changes, challenging policymakers to balance growth and price stability. Overall, the IRF provides insights into how economic variables interact with each other and react to sudden changes, albeit with some uncertainty in the estimates. The forecast error decomposition variance (FEVD) analysis in this study reveals that internal factors initially influence economic growth, but over time, external factors such as the exchange rate, financial resilience, and inflation come into play. The exchange rate, which was initially volatile due to internal factors, becomes increasingly influenced by economic growth, indicating a close relationship between the economy and the foreign exchange market. From an institutional economics perspective, financial resilience, which was initially stable due to internal factors, becomes increasingly dependent on global economic conditions, suggesting the importance of a solid institutional framework for maintaining economic stability. In addition, inflation, which was initially explained by economic growth and exchange rates, has gradually become more influenced by financial resilience, indicating the importance of effective monetary policy in controlling inflation. This study highlights the importance of understanding how economic variables influence each other for effective economic governance. Integrating institutional economics and social capital perspectives provides a comprehensive framework for enhancing financial resilience and promoting sustainable economic development in Indonesia.
Financial markets have adopted measures aiming at strengthening insurance industry and digital financial assets. Efforts have also been made to strengthen the financial sector and expand lending opportunities in times of economic turmoil. The role of the central banks as a mega-regulator have played a crucial role in implementing coordinated policies and improving the stability of the financial sector. This review paper analyses 100 papers and proposes recommendations for policy makers. The results confirm the financial sector has shown positive performance indicators, and the capital market has become increasingly important along with non-credit financial institutions. However, the growing number of first-time investors in the capital market requires a renewed focus on consumer protection and financial literacy. In addition, the development of digital technologies has changed the landscape of financial services, forcing financial institutions to fight for continued customer loyalty.
The nighttime economy has always been an important part of tourism in Thailand. The alcohol industry contends that lifting alcohol restrictions will promote tourism and, consequently, generate additional income. Endogenous Growth Theory, however, emphasizes on investing in human capital, innovation, and knowledge as the most important factors that affect economic growth for a nation. Alcohol consumption incurs opportunity costs, as households lose financial resources and time that could be invested in children’s development. Relaxing control measures to promote alcohol consumption should impede economic development by diminishing the quality of human resources. The paper, therefore, aims to estimate the impact of alcohol consumption on economic growth by using 1990–2019 annual data from Thailand. By adopting Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach, the results reveal that alcohol consumption has significant and negative effects on economic growth in the long run. The statistic tests demonstrate no presence of serial correlation, heteroskedasticity, as well as, endogeneity problems. The finding has been corroborated in international studies, in which alcohol consumption contributes to substantial social and economic costs of the society.
This paper examines the detrimental impact of rapid inflation on the quality of private education in developing countries. By focusing on the financial challenges faced by private schools, the study highlights the tension between education policy and economic realities. While private schools often attract parents with smaller class sizes and specialized programs, the core motivation lies in investing in children’s future through quality education. However, this study demonstrates how inflation can cripple this sector. The case of Turkey exemplifies this challenge. Post-pandemic inflation created a financial stranglehold on private schools, as rising costs made it difficult to adjust teacher salaries. This, in turn, led to teacher demotivation and a mass exodus, ultimately compromising educational quality. Furthermore, government interventions aimed at protecting parents from high tuition fees, through limitations on fee increases, inadvertently sacrificed the very quality they sought to safeguard. The paper concludes by advocating for alternative policy approaches that prioritize direct support for education system during economic downturns. Such measures are crucial for ensuring a strong and resilient education system that benefits all stakeholders, including parents, students, and the nation as a whole.
The role of technology in stimulating economic growth needs to be reexamined considering current heightened economic conditions of Asian developing Economies. This study conducts a comparative analysis of technology proxied by R&D expenditures alongside macroeconomic variables crucial for economic growth. Monthly time-series data from 1990 to 2019 were analyzed using a vector error correction model (VECM), revealing a significant impact of technology on the economic growth of India, Pakistan, and the Philippines. However, in the cases of Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Bangladesh, macroeconomic indicators were found more crucial to their economic growth. Results of Granger causality underlined the relationship of R&D expenditures and macroeconomic variables with GDP growth rates. Sensitivity analyses endorsed robustness of the results which highlighted the significance and originality of this study in economic growth aligned with sustainable development goals (SDGs) for developing countries.
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