This study aims to evaluate the influence of population dependency ratio on the economic growth of Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan, the three members of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC). The study covers the time from 1960 to 2021. It also analyses in detail how population aging and the youth dependency ratio affects the development of certain sectors, including industry, services and agriculture. This study uses panel data to determine the influence of population dependency ratios on economic growth. To estimate this effect, we use the Pooled Mean Group/Autoregressive Distributed Lag (PMG/ARDL) technique. Based on the results obtained from the ARDL analysis indicate the presence of a long-term relationship among these variables. These discoveries align with prior empirical research conducted by Lee and Shin, Mamun et al., and Rostiana and Rodesbi. Furthermore, the findings suggest that an increase in the old age population dependency ratio positively influences economic growth within these nations. The long-term relationship findings pertaining to the old and young dependency ratio and economic growth corroborate the conclusions of Bawazir et al., who proposed that the old population dependency ratio exerts a favorable impact, while the young population has an adverse effect on economic growth. Originality: This research focused on the population dependency ratio, a pivotal demographic metric that gauges the proportion of individuals relying on support (including children and the elderly) compared to those of working age. This investigation particularly explores the interconnection between the population dependency ratio and sectoral development, an essential aspect given that various sectors make distinct contributions to economic advancement. Examining how population dynamics affect sectoral development yields valuable insights into the overall economic performance of Pakistan, India, and Bangladesh.
This study explores the impact of environmental degradation on public debt in the largest Southeast Asian (ASEAN-5) countries. Prior research has not examined environmental degradation as a possible determinant of public debt in the ASEAN region. As such, the primary objective is to examine key determinants of public debt, notably economic growth, trade openness, investment, and environmental degradation. Utilizing the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) method and data from 1996 to 2021, the study reveals a negative correlation between investment and public debt. Conversely, a positive relationship exists between economic growth, environmental degradation, and public debt levels. These findings hold significant implications for policymakers seeking to craft effective economic and environmental strategies to ensure sustainable development in the ASEAN-5 region. Stronger economic growth can drive up public debt. Importantly, the study highlights the importance of tailored approaches, considering each country’s unique fiscal and developmental characteristics. Applying the Two-Gap Model enhances the understanding of these complex dynamics in shaping public debt and its relationship with environmental factors.
Regions rich in natural resources often exhibit a high dependency on revenue from Revenue Sharing Funds (DBH). This dependency can pose long-term challenges, especially when commodity prices experience significant fluctuations. This study examines the role of Revenue Sharing Funds from Natural Resources (DBH SDA) on economic growth in 491 regencies/cities in Indonesia during the 2010–2012 period. The analysis employs panel data regression. The selection of this period was based on the occurrence of a resource boom characterized by a surge in global demand for natural resource commodities, accompanied by an increase in commodity prices. This condition positively impacted the revenues of both the nation and resource-rich regions. The results of the study show that economic growth is not influenced by DBH SDA but rather by General Allocation Funds (DAU). This indicates that the central government still plays a significant role in determining economic growth at the regency/city level in Indonesia. Regions need to prioritize economic diversification to reduce reliance on DBH SDA and DAU. Investment in productive sectors, such as infrastructure, education, and technology, can be a strategic approach to accelerating regional economic growth.
This study aims to compare investment in human capital, equality of gender education in Kuwait before and after adopting SDG 4 and SDG 5 in 2015. It also aims to assess the effect of women’s empowerment on economic growth. To achieve this objective, published data on the State of Kuwait were collected from the World Bank DataBank between 1992 and 2022 and from the Central Bank of Kuwait. The study employed autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) to determine the impact of women’s empowerment on economic development. The analysis results revealed that the State of Kuwait provided high-quality education for both genders. The results also showed that women are more educated than men. However, this was not reflected in the role of women in the country’s politics, as their participation in parliament and government is still limited. Similarly, women’s participation in business and economic activities is still limited. Finally, the results of the ARDL test showed that women’s education and their political, business, and economic empowerment affect economic development in the short and long run.
This study aims to evaluate the relationship between financial resilience, exchange rate, inflation, and economic growth from 1996 to 2022 using secondary data from the World Bank. The analysis method uses vector autoregressive to understand the causality dynamics between these variables. The results show that past economic growth positively impacts current economic conditions, but an increase in the exchange rate can hinder economic growth. The exchange rate also tends to be influenced by previous values, but high economic growth does not always increase the exchange rate. Previous conditions significantly affect financial resilience and can be strengthened by a strong currency. Meanwhile, inflation has an inverse relationship with economic growth, where past inflation seems to suppress current inflation, which price stabilization policies can cause. From an institutional economics perspective, this study provides an understanding of the interaction between various economic factors in the structural framework and policies that regulate economic activities. The impulse response function (IRF) shows that economic growth can react strongly to sudden changes, although this reaction may not last long. The exchange rate fluctuates with economic changes, reflecting market optimism and uncertainty. Financial resilience may be strong initially but may weaken over time, indicating the need for policies to strengthen the financial system to ensure economic stability. Furthermore, the role of social capital in economic resilience is highlighted as it can amplify the positive effects of a robust institutional framework by fostering trust and collaboration among economic actors. Inflation reacts differently to economic changes, challenging policymakers to balance growth and price stability. Overall, the IRF provides insights into how economic variables interact with each other and react to sudden changes, albeit with some uncertainty in the estimates. The forecast error decomposition variance (FEVD) analysis in this study reveals that internal factors initially influence economic growth, but over time, external factors such as the exchange rate, financial resilience, and inflation come into play. The exchange rate, which was initially volatile due to internal factors, becomes increasingly influenced by economic growth, indicating a close relationship between the economy and the foreign exchange market. From an institutional economics perspective, financial resilience, which was initially stable due to internal factors, becomes increasingly dependent on global economic conditions, suggesting the importance of a solid institutional framework for maintaining economic stability. In addition, inflation, which was initially explained by economic growth and exchange rates, has gradually become more influenced by financial resilience, indicating the importance of effective monetary policy in controlling inflation. This study highlights the importance of understanding how economic variables influence each other for effective economic governance. Integrating institutional economics and social capital perspectives provides a comprehensive framework for enhancing financial resilience and promoting sustainable economic development in Indonesia.
Urbanization plays a crucial role in facilitating the integration of population growth, industrial development, economic expansion, and energy consumption. In this paper, we aim to examine the relationships between CO2 emissions and various factors including economic growth, urbanization, financial development, and energy consumption within Pakistan’s building sector. The study utilizes annual data spanning from 1990 to 2020. To analyze the cointegration relationship between these variables, we employ the quantile autoregressive distributed lag error correction model (QARDL-ECM). The findings of this research provide evidence supporting the presence of an asymmetric and nonlinear long-term relationship between the variables under investigation. Based on these results, we suggest the implementation of tariffs on nonrenewable energy sources and the formulation of policies that promote sustainable energy practices. By doing so, policymakers and architects can effectively contribute to minimising environmental damage. Overall, this study offers valuable insights that can assist policymakers and architects in making informed decisions to mitigate environmental harm while fostering sustainable development.
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