To analyze the effect of an increase in the quantity or quality of public investment on growth, this paper extends the World Bank’s Long-Term Growth Model (LTGM), by separating the total capital stock into public and private portions, with the former adjusted for its quality. The paper presents the LTGM public capital extension and accompanying freely downloadable Excel-based tool. It also constructs a new infrastructure efficiency index, by combining quality indicators for power, roads, and water as a cardinal measure of the quality of public capital in each country. In the model, public investment generates a larger boost to growth if existing stocks of public capital are low, or if public capital is particularly important in the production function. Through the lens of the model and utilizing newly-collated cross-country data, the paper presents three stylized facts and some related policy implications. First, the measured public capital stock is roughly constant as a share of gross domestic product (GDP) across income groups, which implies that the returns to new public investment, and its effect on growth, are roughly constant across development levels. Second, developing countries are relatively short of private capital, which means that private investment provides the largest boost to growth in low-income countries. Third, low-income countries have the lowest quality of public capital and the lowest efficient public capital stock as a share of GDP. Although this does not affect the returns to public investment, it means that improving the efficiency of public investment has a sizable effect on growth in low-income countries. Quantitatively, a permanent 1 ppt GDP increase in public investment boosts growth by around 0.1–0.2 ppts over the following few years (depending on the parameters), with the effect declining over time.
Investment growth in many emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) has slowed sharply since 2010. Investment growth performance has varied significantly across different regions, however. This paper examines the evolution of investment growth in six EMDE regions, documents remaining investment needs, especially for infrastructure, and presents a set of region-specific policy responses to address these needs. It reports three main findings. First, investment growth has been particularly weak in EMDE regions hosting a large number of commodity exporters. In regions with a substantial number of commodity-importing economies, investment growth has been somewhat resilient but has also declined steadily since 2010. Second, sizable investment needs remain in most EMDE regions to make room for expanding economic activity and rapid urbanization. A large portion of these investment needs is in infrastructure and human capital. Finally, while specific policy priorities vary across regions, several policy options to address remaining investment needs apply universally. These include more, and more efficient, public investment and measures to improve overall growth prospects and the business climate. Improved project selection and monitoring, as well as better governance, may enhance the efficiency and benefits from public investment.
This paper aims to develop a holistic framework for the Maqasid al-Shariah in Responsible Investment (MSRI) index for selected publicly listed companies in the Malaysian capital market. To test the validity of the MSRI framework, a sample of 30 publicly listed companies from 2021 was selected using purposive sampling. The framework consists of eight themes with forty-five elements to evaluate companies based on their annual reports, sustainability reports, and public disclosures. The scores are classified into three categories: Shariah compliant, Shariah non-compliant, and Hajiyyat. Out of the 30 selected companies, the summary of MSRI scores concludes that twenty (20) companies were identified as Shariah compliant, while the remaining four (4) were classified as Shariah non-compliant, and six (6) as Hajiyyat. Overall, the results of the analyses show that the sustainability of the company and society has a higher percentage than the wealth preservation of companies. This research differs substantially from prior work by offering a novel approach that develops a holistic framework integrating Maqasid al-Shariah with elements of responsible investment. This study believes it can provide valuable guidance for formulating Islamic investment public policy for selected investment portfolios.
Developing Asia’s infrastructure gap results from both inadequate public resources and a lack of effective channels to mobilize private resources toward desired outcomes. The public-private partnership (PPP) mechanism has evolved to fill the infrastructure gap. However, PPP projects are often at risk of becoming distressed, or worst, being terminated because of the long-term nature of contracts and the many different stakeholders involved. This paper applies survival-time hazard analysis to estimate how project-related, macroeconomic, and institutional factors affect the hazard rate of the projects. Empirical results show that government’s provision of guarantees, involvement of multilateral development banks, and existence of a dedicated PPP unit are important for a project’s success. Privately initiated proposals should be regulated and undergo competitive bidding to reduce the hazard rate of the project and the corresponding burden to the government. Economic growth leads to successful project outcomes. Improved legal and institutional environment can ensure PPP success.
This study updates Pereira and Pereira by revisiting the macroeconomic and budgetary effects of infrastructure investment in Portugal using a dataset from the Portuguese Ministry of the Economy covering 1980–2019, thereby capturing a period of austerity and decreased investment in the 2010s. A vector-autoregressive approach re-estimates the elasticity and marginal product of twelve infrastructure types on private investment, employment, and output. The most significant long-term accumulated effects on output accrue from investments in airports, ports, health, highways, water, and railroads. In contrast, those in municipal roads, electricity and gas, and refineries are statistically insignificant. All statistically significant infrastructure investments pay for themselves over time through additional tax revenues. Compared to the previous study, highways, water, and ports have more than doubled their estimated marginal products due to a significant increase in relative scarcity over the last decade. In addition, our analysis reveals an important shift in the impacts of infrastructure investment, now producing more substantial immediate effects but weaker long-term impacts. This change offers policymakers a powerful tool for short-term economic stimulus and is particularly useful in addressing immediate economic challenges.
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