China-Africa economic integration generally looks lucid, as evidenced by rising bilateral trade, as well as Chinese FDI, aid, and debt financing for infrastructure development in Africa. The engagement, however, appears to be strategically channeled to benefit China’s resource endowment strategy. First, Chinese FDI in Africa is primarily resource-seeking, with minimum manufacturing value addition. Second, China has successfully replicated the Angola model in other resource-rich African countries, and most infrastructure loans-for-natural resources barter deals are said to be undervalued. There is also a resource-backed loan arrangement in place, in which default Chinese loans are repaid in natural resources. Third, while China claims that its financial aid is critical to Africa’s growth and development processes, a significant portion of the aid is spent on non-development projects such as building parliaments and government buildings. This lend credence to the notion that China uses aid to gain diplomatic recognition from African leaders, with resource-rich and/or institutionally unstable countries being the most targeted. The preceding arguments support why Africa’s exports to China dominate other China’s financial flows to Africa, and consist mainly of natural resources. Accordingly, this study aims to forecast China-Africa economic integration through the lens of China’s demand for natural resources and Africa’s demand for capital, both of which are reflected in Africa’s exports to China. The study used a MODWT-ARIMA hybrid forecasting technique to account for the short period of available China-Africa bilateral trade dataset (1992–2021), and found that Africa’s exports to China are likely to decline from US$ 119.20 billion in 2022 to US$ 13.68 billion in 2026 on average. This finding coincides with a period in which Chinese demand for Africa’s natural resources is expected to decline.

The article investigates trade flows between the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) member-states and Belarus before the upcoming Belarus’ joining the organization. The export flows of the countries are modeled using a power function based on the time data. The results of the qualitative and quantitative analysis of foreign trade between the organization and the Republic of Belarus are presented, as well as the quantitative forecast of the prospects open to Belarus in connection with its joining the organization based on three original scenarios using econometric models. The results of the study show that Belarus has certain promising sectors of foreign economic activity, which can contribute to an increase in income from trade. It was found that the integration of the country will have a positive effect on increasing the volume of trade turnover with the participating countries, while in order to maintain sustainable economic growth of the country, domestic development of production should remain a priority, as evidenced by the obtained parameter estimates for the factors. An assessment of potential economic effects can be used to make a decision on whether a country should join an international organization. In particular, based on the assessments in our study in trade with Russia the expected increase in Belarus exports upon joining the Shanghai Cooperation Organization will constitute an increase of nearly 5%, exports to Kazakhstan are expected to increase by almost 75%, and to India and China by almost 90%. In the context of reshaping of international associations and organizations, the problems and issues raised in the study become even more relevant.