This study introduces a novel Groundwater Flooding Risk Assessment (GFRA) model to evaluate risks associated with groundwater flooding (GF), a globally significant hazard often overshadowed by surface water flooding. GFRA utilizes a conditional probability function considering critical factors, including topography, ground slope, and land use-recharge to generate a risk assessment map. Additionally, the study evaluates the return period of GF events (GFRP) by fitting annual maxima of groundwater levels to probability distribution functions (PDFs). Approximately 57% of the pilot area falls within high and critical GF risk categories, encompassing residential and recreational areas. Urban sectors in the north and east, containing private buildings, public centers, and industrial structures, exhibit high risk, while developing areas and agricultural lands show low to moderate risk. This serves as an early warning for urban development policies. The Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution effectively captures groundwater level fluctuations. According to the GFRP model, about 21% of the area, predominantly in the city's northeast, has over 50% probability of GF exceedance (1 to 2-year return period). Urban outskirts show higher return values (> 10 years). The model's predictions align with recorded flood events (90% correspondence). This approach offers valuable insights into GF threats for vulnerable locations and aids proactive planning and management to enhance urban resilience and sustainability.
Flood risk analysis is the instrument by which floodplain and stormwater utility managers create strategic adaptation plans to reduce the likelihood of flood damages in their communities, but there is a need to develop a screening tool to analyze watersheds and identify areas that should be targeted and prioritized for mitigation measures. The authors developed a screening tool that combines readily available data on topography, groundwater, surface water, tidal information for coastal communities, soils, land use, and precipitation data. Using the outputs of the screening tool for various design storms, a means to identify and prioritize improvements to be funded with scarce capital funds was developed, which combines the likelihood of flooding from the screening tool with a consequence of flooding assessment based on land use and parcel size. This framework appears to be viable across cities that may be inundated with water due to sea-level rise, rainfall, runoff upstream, and other natural events. The framework was applied to two communities using the 1-day 100-year storm event: one in southeast Broward County with an existing capital plan and one inland community with no capital plan.
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