This study aims to identify the risk factors causing the delay in the completion schedule and to determine an optimization strategy for more accurate completion schedule prediction. A validated questionnaire has been used to calculate a risk rating using the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) method, and a Monte Carlo simulation on @RISK 8.2 software was employed to obtain a more accurate prediction of project completion schedules. The study revealed that the dominant risk factors causing project delays are coordination with stakeholders and changes in the scope of work/design review. In addition, the project completion date was determined with a confidence level of 95%. All data used in this study were obtained directly from the case study of the Double-Double Track Development Project (Package A). The key result of this study is the optimization of a risk-based schedule forecast with a 95% confidence level, applicable directly to the scheduling of the Double-Double Track Development Project (Package A). This paper demonstrates the application of Monte Carlo Simulation using @RISK 8.2 software as a project management tool for predicting risk-based-project completion schedules.
The covid-19 pandemic has adversely affected the sustainability of micro and small enterprises (MSEs), with a particularly pronounced impact in Central Java. Entrepreneurs who struggle to adapt to reduced consumer purchasing power and the increasing reliance on digital technology are at heightened risk of business closure. Despite these challenges, inclusivity remains a crucial element for MSEs in fostering local economic development. Accordingly, this study seeks to examine the role of inclusivity in the sustainability of MSEs that are based on digital technology. Data were collected through the use of questionnaires and focus group discussions. Respondents were digital-based MSEs entrepreneurs from five selected regions, with Central Java having the largest number of digital media users. Key informants included experts from Diponegoro University, the International Council of Small Business (ICSB), the Department of Cooperatives and Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises at the provincial and district levels, and non-governmental organizations. The collected data was analyzed using the Rapid Appraisal for Micro and Small Enterprises (Rap-MSE’s) method. To assess the sustainability status, the study utilized several dimensions, including economic, environmental, social, institutional, technological, and inclusivity factors. Both multidimensional and individual analyses indicated that the sustainability status was relatively robust. MSEs that integrated digital technology into their operations were able to withstand the challenges posed by covid-19 and adapt to the new normal. In conclusion, the inclusivity dimension in the adoption of digital technology has gained increased importance in driving local economic development.
This study analyzes the impact of a high-speed rail line on tax revenues and on the economy of affected regions within the country. The economic impact of infrastructure investment can be induced by changes in tax revenues when the infrastructure is in operation. Accurate regional GDP data are not necessarily available in many Asian countries. However, tax data can be collected. Therefore, this study uses tax revenue dates in order to estimate spillover effects of infrastructure investment. The Kyushu high-speed rail line was constructed in 1991 and was completed in 2003. In 2004, the rail line started operating from Kagoshima to Kumamoto. The entire line was opened in 2011. We estimated its impact in the Kyushu region of Japan by using the differencein- difference method, and compared the tax revenues of regions along the high-speed railway line with other regions that were not affected by the railway line. Our findings show a positive impact on the region’s tax revenue following the connection of the Kyushu rapid train with large cities, such as Osaka and Tokyo. Tax revenue in the region significantly increased during construction in 1991–2003, and dropped after the start of operations in 2004–2010. The rapid train’s impact on the neighboring prefectures of Kyushu is positive. However, in 2004–2013, its impact on tax revenue in places farther from the rapid train was observed to be lower. When the Kyushu railway line was connected to the existing high-speed railway line of Sanyo, the situation changed. The study finds statistically significant and economically growing impact on tax revenue after it was completed and connected to other large cities, such as Osaka and Tokyo. Tax revenues in the regions close to the high-speed train is higher than in adjacent regions. The difference-in-difference coefficient methods reveal that corporate tax revenue was lower than personal income tax revenue during construction. However, the difference in corporate tax revenues rose after connectivity with large cities was completed. Public–private partnership (PPP) has been promoted in many Asian countries. However, PPP-infrastructure in India failed in many cases due to the low rate of return from infrastructure investment. This study shows that an increase of tax revenues is significant in the case of the Kyushu rapid train in Japan. If half of the incremental tax revenues were returned to private investors in infrastructure, the rate of return from infrastructure investment would significantly rise for long period of time. It would attract stable and long-term private investors, such as pension funds and insurance funds into infrastructure investment. The last section of the paper will address how incremental tax revenues created by the spillover effects of infrastructure will improve the performance of private investors in infrastructure investment.
Delay is the leading challenge in completing Engineering, Procurement, and Construction (EPC) projects. Delay can cause excess costs, which reduces company profits. The relationship between subcontractors and the main contractor is a critical factor that can support the success of an EPC project. The problematic financial condition of the main contractor can cause delay in payments to subcontractors. This research will set a model that combines the system dynamics and earned value method to describe the impact of subcontractor advance payments on project performance. The system dynamics method is used to model and analyze the impact of interactions between variables affecting project performance, while the earned value method is applied to quantitatively evaluate project performance and forecast schedule and cost outcomes. These two methods are used complementarily to achieve a holistic understanding of project dynamics and to optimize decision-making. The designed model selects the optimum scenario for project time and costs. The developed model comprises project performance, costs, cash flow, and performance forecasting sub-models. The novelty in this research is a new model for optimizing project implementation time and costs, adding payment rate variables to subcontractors and subcontractor performance rates. The designed model can provide additional information to assist project managers in making decisions.
Brunei Darussalam is a small Sultanate country with diverse forest cover. One of them would be Mangrove Forest. As it has four main administrative districts, Temburong would be the chosen case study area. The methods of collecting data for this article are by collecting secondary data from official websites and the map in this article (Figure 1) are showing the forest cover in Brunei Darussalam as of 2020. The aim of this article is to explain the mangrove forest especially at the Temburong District. As for the objectives, it would to be able to show the different types of forests in Temburong, hoping in ability to explain the different subtypes of mangroves forest and to explain in general the green jewel of Brunei Darussalam. Temburong has become the second highest tree coverage in Brunei Darussalam of 124 kha as of 2010, while the mangrove forest covering about 66% of total mangrove forest of 12,164 km2 out of 18,418 hectares. Mangrove forest has seven subtypes: Bakau species, Nyireh bunga, Linggadai, Nipah, Nipah-Dungun, Pedada and Nibong. Selirong Forest Reserve and Labu Forest Reserve are the two-mangrove forest reserves in Brunei Darussalam at Temburong District. Forest cover in Brunei Darussalam are 3800 hectares as of 2020 and has lost its tree coverage of 1.17 kha and one of the reasons would be forest fire and the tree cover loss due to fire is around 197 ha and the district that has lost its tree cover mostly was at Belait District of total 13.4 kha between the year 2001 until 2022.
Cocoa is important for the economy and rural development of Ghana. However, small-scale cocoa production is the leading agricultural product driver of deforestation in Ghana. Uncertain tree tenure disincentivizes farmers to retain and nurture trees on their farms. There is therefore the call for structures that promote tree retention and management within cocoa farming. We examined tenure barriers and governance for tree resources on cocoa farms. Data was collected from 200 cocoa farmers from two regions using multistage sampling technique. Information was gathered on tree ownership and fate of tree resources on cocoa farms, tree felling permit acquisition and associated challenges and illegal logging and compensation payments on cocoa farms. Results suggest 62.2% of farmers own trees on their farms. However, these farmers may or may not have ownership rights over the trees depending on the ownership of their farmlands. More than half of the farmers indicated they require felling permits to harvest trees on their farms, indicative of the awareness of established tree harvesting procedures. Seventy percent of the farmers have never experienced illegal logging on their farms. There is however the need to educate the remaining 30% on their rights and build their compensation negotiation powers for destructions to their cocoa crops. This study has highlighted ownership and governance issues with cocoa farming and it is important for the sustainability of on-farm tree resources and Ghana’s forest at large.
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