The goal of this work was to create and assess machine-learning models for estimating the risk of budget overruns in developed projects. Finding the best model for risk forecasting required evaluating the performance of several models. Using a dataset of 177 projects took into account variables like environmental risks employee skill level safety incidents and project complexity. In our experiments, we analyzed the application of different machine learning models to analyze the risk for the management decision policies of developed organizations. The performance of the chosen model Neural Network (MLP) was improved after applying the tuning process which increased the Test R² from −0.37686 before tuning to 0.195637 after tuning. The Support Vector Machine (SVM), Ridge Regression, Lasso Regression, and Random Forest (Tuned) models did not improve, as seen when Test R² is compared to the experiments. No changes in Test R²’s were observed on GBM and XGBoost, which retained same Test R² across different tuning attempts. Stacking Regressor was used only during the hyperparameter tuning phase and brought a Test R² of 0. 022219.Decision Tree was again the worst model among all throughout the experiments, with no signs of improvement in its Test R²; it was −1.4669 for Decision Tree in all experiments arranged on the basis of Gender. These results indicate that although, models such as the Neural Network (MLP) sees improvements due to hyperparameter tuning, there are minimal improvements for most models. This works does highlight some of the weaknesses in specific types of models, as well as identifies areas where additional work can be expected to deliver incremental benefits to the structured applied process of risk assessment in organizational policies.

The study examines the impact of COVID-19 on the economies of Gulf Corporation Council (GCC) member states. The event study methodology was used to analyze Cumulative Abnormal Return (CAR) of GCC member states’ stock indexes: Kuwait Stock Exchange Index (KSE), Dubai Financial Market Index (DFM), Saudi Arabia Tadawul Index (TASI), Qatar Exchange Index (QE), Bahrain All Share Index (BHB), Oman’s Muscat Stock Exchange Index (MSM), Abu Dhabi Stock Exchange Index (ADX) while the S&P GCC Composite Index was used as a reference. Data obtained from 28 July 2019 to 27 July 2020, and 1 March 2020, designated as the event day, abnormal returns (AR) and cumulative average abnormal returns (CAARs) were examined across various time intervals. The findings reveal significant market reactions to the pandemic, characterized by fluctuations in abnormal returns and CAARs. Statistically significant abnormal returns and CAARs during certain time periods underscore the dynamic nature of market responses to the COVID-19 event. These results provide valuable insights for policymakers and market participants seeking to understand and navigate the economic implications of the pandemic on GCC economies. The study recommends that other GCC states, particularly Oman, consider the policies undertaken by Qatar, UAE, and Saudi Arabia, to avoid a long economic crisis.

Pakistan is a leading emerging market as per the recent classification of the International Monetary Fund (MF), and hedging is used as a considerable apparatus for minimizing a firm’s risk in this market. In these markets, investors are customarily unaware about the hedging activities in firms, due to the occupancy of asymmetric environment prevailing in firms. This research paper adds a new insight and vision to the existing literature in the field of behavioral finance by examining the impact of hedging on investors’ sentiments in the presence of asymmetric information. For organizing this research, 366 non-financial firms are taken up as the size sample; all these firms are registered in the Pakistan Stock Exchange. A two-step system of generalized method of moments (GMM) model is implemented for regulating the study. The findings of empirical evidence exhibit that there is a positive relationship between investors’ sentiments and hedging. Investors’ sentiments are negative in relationship with asymmetric information. Due to the moderate presence of asymmetric information, hedging is positively related to investors’ sentiments although this relation is non-significant.

This research aims to analyze the strategic role of the Islamic organizations Muhammadiyah and Al-Washliyah in the electoral dynamics of North Sumatra. The background for this study stems from the significant influence these organizations hold in the social, educational, and political spheres of the region, leveraging their extensive membership base and organizational structure. The urgency of this research arises from the need to understand how religious organizations shape political outcomes, which is crucial for developing more inclusive governance strategies. Employing a qualitative descriptive methodology, this study explores how these organizations mobilize support during elections and influence policies through their educational and social programs. Findings reveal that Muhammadiyah and Al-Washliyah effectively utilize mass mobilization and social movement theories to maintain their influence in the political landscape of North Sumatra, subtly navigating and shaping local politics through strategic engagement and advocacy.

This research aims to determine the strategy of the Jakarta Provincial Government in increasing the resilience and growth of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) within a collaborative governance framework post-COVID-19. This study explores the effectiveness of SMEs and facilities in accessing financing and fostering collaborative partnerships between SMEs, government agencies, and financial institutions by utilizing USAID’s Theory of Change (TOC). This research uses a qualitative approach supported by in-depth interviews and Focus Group Discussions to enrich the insights of SME stakeholders, large companies, and SME actors and assess the impact of their roles. The results of this research highlight the critical role of SME Cooperative Banks (SCB) in improving SMEs’ access to credit and financial services, including collaborative governance frameworks and partnerships between SMEs, government agencies, and banks, which were identified as necessary to improve policy coherence and encourage conducive SME business environment conditions. The main findings of this research underscore the importance of the SCB model, demonstrating its potential to improve SME resilience and economic sustainability. This SCB model enriches the TOC indicators introduced by USAID. The study identifies gaps in digital infrastructure and market access that hinder SME growth and recommends targeted interventions to address these challenges. This study shows that SCB offers a promising pathway to increase the resilience and growth of SMEs in Indonesia, especially if accompanied by effective collaborative governance strategies. These initiatives can encourage inclusive economic development and strengthen the role of SMEs as drivers of the local economy. Recommendations include expanding the SCB model to other regions, encouraging digitalization, facilitating market access, advocating for a supportive policy framework, and integrating these strategies to advance the principles of USAID’s Theory of Change, fostering sustainable SME development and economic resilience.