Exploring the role of machine learning models in risk assessment models for developed organizations’ management decision policies

Boumedyen Shannaq ,Devarajanayaka Kalenahalli Muniyanayaka ,Oualid Ali ,Basel Bani-Ismail ,Said Al Maqbali

doi:10.24294/jipd9364

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Exploring the role of machine learning models in risk assessment models for developed organizations’ management decision policies

Boumedyen Shannaq

Devarajanayaka Kalenahalli Muniyanayaka

Oualid Ali

Basel Bani-Ismail

Said Al Maqbali

Journal of Infrastructure Policy and Development 2024, 8(13), 9364; https://doi.org/10.24294/jipd9364

Submitted：28 Sept 2024

Accepted：25 Oct 2024

Published：15 Nov 2024

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Abstract

The goal of this work was to create and assess machine-learning models for estimating the risk of budget overruns in developed projects. Finding the best model for risk forecasting required evaluating the performance of several models. Using a dataset of 177 projects took into account variables like environmental risks employee skill level safety incidents and project complexity. In our experiments, we analyzed the application of different machine learning models to analyze the risk for the management decision policies of developed organizations. The performance of the chosen model Neural Network (MLP) was improved after applying the tuning process which increased the Test R² from −0.37686 before tuning to 0.195637 after tuning. The Support Vector Machine (SVM), Ridge Regression, Lasso Regression, and Random Forest (Tuned) models did not improve, as seen when Test R² is compared to the experiments. No changes in Test R²’s were observed on GBM and XGBoost, which retained same Test R² across different tuning attempts. Stacking Regressor was used only during the hyperparameter tuning phase and brought a Test R² of 0. 022219.Decision Tree was again the worst model among all throughout the experiments, with no signs of improvement in its Test R²; it was −1.4669 for Decision Tree in all experiments arranged on the basis of Gender. These results indicate that although, models such as the Neural Network (MLP) sees improvements due to hyperparameter tuning, there are minimal improvements for most models. This works does highlight some of the weaknesses in specific types of models, as well as identifies areas where additional work can be expected to deliver incremental benefits to the structured applied process of risk assessment in organizational policies.

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References

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