Fire hazard is often mapped as a static conditional probability of fire characteristics’ occurrence. We developed a dynamic product for operational risk management to forecast the probability of occurrence of fire radiative power in the locally possible near-maximum fire intensity range. We applied standard machine learning techniques to remotely sensed data. We used a block maxima approach to sample the most extreme fire radiative power (FRP) MODIS retrievals in free-burning fuels for each fire season between 2001 and 2020 and associated weather, fuel, and topography features in northwestern south America. We used the random forest algorithm for both classification and regression, implementing the backward stepwise repression procedure. We solved the classification problem predicting the probability of occurrence of near-maximum wildfire intensity with 75% recall out-of-sample in ten annual test sets running time series cross validation, and 77% recall and 85% ROC-AUC out-of-sample in a twenty-fold cross-validation to gauge a realistic expectation of model performance in production. We solved the regression problem predicting FRP with 86% r² in-sample, but out-of-sample performance was unsatisfactory. Our model predicts well fatal and near-fatal incidents reported in Peru and Colombia out-of-sample in mountainous areas and unimodal fire regimes, the signal decays in bimodal fire regimes.

Richard’s equation was approximated by finite-difference numerical scheme to model water infiltration profile in variably unsaturated soil^[1]. The published data of Philip’s semi-analytical solution was used to validate the simulated results from the numerical scheme. A discrepancy was found between the simulated and the published semi-analytical results. Morris method as a global sensitivity tool was used as an alternative to local sensitivity analysis to assess the results discrepancy. Morris method with different sampling strategies were tested, of which Manhattan distance method has resulted a better sensitivity measures and also a better scan of input space than Euclidean method. Moreover, Morris method at p = 2 , r = 2 and Manhattan distance sampling strategy, with only 2 extra simulation runs than local sensitivity analysis, was able to produce reliable sensitivity measures (μ^*, σ). The sensitivity analysis results were cross-validated by Sobol’ variance-based method with 150,000 simulation runs. The global sensitivity tool has identified three important parameters, of which spatial discretization size was the sole reason of the discrepancy observed. In addition, a high proportion of total output variance contributed by parameters β and θ_s is suggesting a greater significant digits to reduce its input uncertainty range.