Many financial crises have occurred in recent decades, such as the International Debt Crisis of 1982, the East Asian Economic Crisis of 1997–2001, the Russian economic crisis of 1992–1997, the Latin American debt Crisis of 1994–2002, the Global Economic Recession of 2007–2009, which had a strong impact on international relations. The aim of this article is to create an econometric model of the indicator for identifying crisis situations arising in stock markets. The approach under consideration includes data for preprocessing and assessing the stability of the trend of time series using higher-order moments. The results obtained are compared with specific practical situations. To test the proposed indicator, real data of the stock indices of the USA, Germany and Hong Kong in the period World Financial Crisis are used. The scientific novelty of the results of the article consists in the analysis of the initial and given initial moments of high order, as well as the central and reduced central moments of high order. The econometric model of the indicator for identifying crisis situations arising considered in the work, based on high-order moments plays a pivotal role in crisis detection in stock markets, influencing financial innovations in managing the national economy. The findings contribute to the resilience and adaptability of the financial system, ultimately shaping the trajectory of the national economy. By facilitating timely crisis detection, the model supports efforts to maintain economic stability, thereby fostering sustainable growth and resilience in the face of financial disruptions. The model's insights can shape the national innovation ecosystem by guiding the development and adoption of monetary and financial innovations that are aligned with the economy's specific needs and challenges.
This paper investigates the factors influencing credit growth in Kosovo, focusing on the relationship between credit activity and key economic variables, including GDP, FDI, CPI, and interest rates. Its analysis targets loans issued to businesses and households in Kosovo, employing a VAR model integrated into a VEC model to investigate the determinants of credit growth. The findings were validated using OLS regression. Additionally, the study includes a normality test, a model stability test (Inverse Roots AR Characteristic Polynomial), a Granger causality test for short-term relationships, and variance decomposition to analyze variable shocks over time. This research demonstrates that loan growth is primarily driven by its historical values. The VEC model shows that, in the long run, economic growth in Kosovo leads to less credit growth, showing a negative link between it and GDP. Higher interest rates also reduce credit growth, showing another negative link. On the other hand, more foreign direct investment (FDI) increases credit demand, showing a positive link between credit growth and FDI. The results show that loans and inflation (CPI) are positively linked, meaning higher inflation leads to more credit growth. Similarly, more foreign direct investment (FDI) increases credit demand, showing a positive link between FDI and credit growth. In the long term, higher inflation is connected to greater credit growth. In the short term, the VAR model suggests that GDP has a small to moderate effect on loans, while FDI has a slightly negative effect. In the VAR model, interest rates have a mixed effect: one coefficient is positive and the other negative, showing a delayed negative impact on loan growth. CPI has a small and negative effect, indicating little short-term influence on credit growth. The OLS regression supports the VAR results, finding no effect of GDP on loans, a small negative effect from FDI, a strong negative effect from interest rates, and no effect from CPI. This study provides a detailed analysis and adds to the research by showing how macroeconomic factors affect credit growth in Kosovo. The findings offer useful insights for policymakers and researchers about the relationship between these factors and credit activity.
The Republic of Moldova is a state with a small, but dynamic economy and which, with the help of competitiveness in the IT industry, is looking for a place on the economic market in the Eastern European region. The research approaches this topic from an economic, historical, but also geopolitical point of view. This analysis of economic data and figures from the last period, combined with government policies and that of the National Bank of Moldova, means that in the near future the software economic area of Moldova will become an important regional player in this part of Europe.
Some platforms in the collaborative economy offer a combination of sectoral and information society services, which characterises them as a hybrid entity. The concurrent provision of disparate types of services necessitates the determination of the predominant activity of a given platform on a case-by-case basis. This, in turn, gives rise to legal uncertainty and inconsistent case law at the national level. This paper examines the impact of the choice of institutional alternatives in the context of multilevel governance in the EU on the legal status of collaborative economy business models such as Uber and Airbnb in the EU single market. The paper employs a mixed-methods research approach to analyse pivotal jurisprudential decisions of the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) and national courts. It reaches the conclusion that the Airbnb platform, in its capacity as an information society service provider, is subject to the provisions of the Electronic Commerce Directive (2000/31/EC). Conversely, Uber, by virtue of its definition as a transport undertaking, is subject to shared jurisdiction between EU institutions and Member States in the field of transport services. This paper initiates a discussion on the suitability of the extant regulatory apparatus and underscores the necessity for the establishment of an appropriate institutional framework, either centralised at the EU level or decentralised at the level of Member States, that would provide substantive rules aimed at comprehensively regulating the legal status of hybrid business models, thus allowing for more uniform conditions for their operation in the EU single market.
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