This study uses a Time-Varying Parameter Stochastic Volatility Vector Autoregression (TVP-SV-VAR) model to conduct an empirical analysis of the dynamic effects of China’s stock market volatility on the agricultural loan market and its channels. The results show that the relationship between stock market and agricultural loan market volatility is time varying and is always positive. The investor sentiment is a major conduit through which the effect takes place. This time-varying effect and transmission mechanism are most apparent between 2011 and 2017 and have since waned and stabilized. These have significant implications for the stable and orderly development of the agricultural loan market, highlighting the importance of the sound financial market system and timely policy, better market monitoring and early warning system and the formation of a mature and sound agricultural credit mechanism.
In Central and Eastern European countries, the labour shortage is becoming increasingly pronounced, posing a challenge for the economy. Labour shortages limit the potential national income as many positions remain unfilled, which could lead to a slowdown in economic growth. To address this issue, various solutions need to be explored. This research aims to analyze solutions for alleviating labour shortages, with particular emphasis on measures that encourage workforce participation. One strategy is introducing training and retraining programs that help workers develop skills and adapt to labour market demands. Another option is to promote part-time employment, which may be especially attractive to groups unable or unwilling to work full-time. Enhancing population mobility could also be crucial in addressing labour shortages, particularly in bridging regional disparities. Integrating certain inactive groups, such as retirees, homemakers, students, people with disabilities, and those with low education levels experiencing generational poverty, into the labour market could also yield significant benefits. The study employs quantitative analysis methods and includes a survey that examines citizens’ perspectives on the effectiveness of measures aimed at increasing labour market participation and their economic impact on the Slovak economy. The survey data were collected in 2023 in the region of Rožňava and its surrounding areas.
The growth of mobile Internet has facilitated access to information by minimizing geographical barriers. For this reason, this paper forecasts the number of users, incomes, and traffic for operators with the most significant penetration in the mobile internet market in Colombia to analyze their market growth. For the forecast, the convolutional neural network (CNN) technique is used, combined with the recurrent neural network (RNN), long short-term memory network (LSTM), and gated recurrent unit (GRU) techniques. The CNN training data corresponds to the last twelve years. The results currently show a high concentration in the market since a company has a large part of the market; however, the forecasts show a decrease in its users and revenues and the growth of part of the competition. It is also concluded that the technique with the most precision in the forecasts is CNN-GRU.
Many financial crises have occurred in recent decades, such as the International Debt Crisis of 1982, the East Asian Economic Crisis of 1997–2001, the Russian economic crisis of 1992–1997, the Latin American debt Crisis of 1994–2002, the Global Economic Recession of 2007–2009, which had a strong impact on international relations. The aim of this article is to create an econometric model of the indicator for identifying crisis situations arising in stock markets. The approach under consideration includes data for preprocessing and assessing the stability of the trend of time series using higher-order moments. The results obtained are compared with specific practical situations. To test the proposed indicator, real data of the stock indices of the USA, Germany and Hong Kong in the period World Financial Crisis are used. The scientific novelty of the results of the article consists in the analysis of the initial and given initial moments of high order, as well as the central and reduced central moments of high order. The econometric model of the indicator for identifying crisis situations arising considered in the work, based on high-order moments plays a pivotal role in crisis detection in stock markets, influencing financial innovations in managing the national economy. The findings contribute to the resilience and adaptability of the financial system, ultimately shaping the trajectory of the national economy. By facilitating timely crisis detection, the model supports efforts to maintain economic stability, thereby fostering sustainable growth and resilience in the face of financial disruptions. The model’s insights can shape the national innovation ecosystem by guiding the development and adoption of monetary and financial innovations that are aligned with the economy’s specific needs and challenges.
The Hungarian tourism and hospitality industry has faced serious challenges in recent years. The tourism and hospitality sector has been confronted with severe challenges in recent years. Even after the end of the pandemic, the industry has not seen the expected recovery, as rising inflation, declining discretionary income and a lack of foreign tourists have further hampered the industry. The hotel market in Budapest in particular has been significantly affected by these developments. Despite the difficulties, investors continue to see opportunities in the market. One example is the purchase by a group of real estate investors of an under-utilised leisure centre in District VII, which they intend to convert into a hotel. Our study is part of this project and its primary objective is to define the parameters of the future hotel and analyse the market opportunities and challenges. Our research focuses on the hotel market in Budapest and uses methods such as benchmarking, STEEP and SWOT analyses, as well as four in-depth interviews with key players in the market. The benchmarking examined the operations of hotels in the capital, while the in-depth interviews provided practical experience and insider perspectives. On the basis of the interviews and analyses, the study identifies possible directions for improvement and factors for competitive advantage.
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