The demography of Saudi Arabia has been discussed many times but its conflict with the theories of transition and associated structural changes is unexplained. This research explains the demographic differentials stated as lag - real from theoretical – separately for the native and total population. This research developed demographic indicators revealing trends and patterns by adopting a secondary data analysis method, utilizing the General Authority for Statistics census data and other online data. The demographic transition of Saudi Arabia is in line with the theoretical contentions of pretransition and transition (early, mid, and late) stages but at definite time intervals. The absolute size, percentage change, and annual growth rate are explanatory for natives and are considered separately. Moreover, the structural population changes reveal transition stages from expansive to near expansive and constricting and stabilizing. Furthermore, broad age groups indicate rapid declines in the percentage of children, rapid increases in young adults, slow increases in older adults, and no changes in older persons. Even the sex ratio of natives is at par with other populations in transition (slightly above 100). Thus, it could be concluded that a demographic transition with structural changes as per theories: flawless growth rates with an expanding demographic dividend. At this juncture, the integration of migrants into society by endorsing family life and enabling social and demographic balance appears as imperative to improving the labor sector, productivity, and the image of the country in the international spheres for comparisons and benchmarking.
The Human Development Index, which accounts for both net foreign income and the total value of goods and services generated domestically, illustrates how income becomes less significant as Gross National Income (GNI) rises by using the logarithm of income. South Africa ranks 109th out of 189 countries in the Human Development Index (HDI) within the Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) economic bloc, raising long-term sustainability concerns. The study explores the relationship between economic, demography, policy indicators and human development in South Africa. South Africa’s unique status as a developing country within the BRICS economic group, alongside its lengthy history of racial discrimination, calls for a sophisticated approach to understanding Human Development. Existing research considered economic, demography, policy indicators independently; the gap of understanding their interconnection and long-term effects in the South African contexts exists. The study addresses the gap by using Autoregressive-Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to investigate the short-term and the long-term relationship between economic, demography, policy indicators and human development in South Africa. By discovering these links, the study hopes to provide useful insights for policymakers seeking to promote sustainable human development in South Africa. The findings indicate that growth in GDP is a key factor in the HDI since it shows that there are more financial resources available for human development. By discovering these links, the study hopes to provide useful insights for policymakers seeking to promote sustainable human development in South Africa.
Based on the population change data of 2005–2009, 2010–2014, 2015–2019 and 2005–2019, the shrinking cities in Northeast China are determined to analyze their spatial distribution pattern. And the influencing factors and effects of shrinking cities in Northeast China are explored by using multiple linear regression method and random forest regression method. The results show that: 1) In space, the shrinking cities in Northeast China are mainly distributed in the “land edge” areas represented by Changbai Mountain, Sanjiang Plain, Xiaoxing’an Mountain and Daxing’an Mountain. In terms of time, the contraction center shows an obvious trend of moving northward, while the opposite expansion center shows a trend of moving southward, and the shrinking cities gather further; 2) in the study of influencing factors, the results of multiple linear regression and random forest regression show that socio-economic factors play a major role in the formation of shrinking cities; 3) the precision of random forest regression is higher than that of multiple linear regression. The results show that per capita GDP has the greatest impact on the contraction intensity, followed by the unemployment rate, science and education expenses and the average wage of on-the-job workers. Among the four influencing factors, only the unemployment rate promotes the contraction, and the other three influencing factors inhibit the formation of shrinking cities to various degrees.
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