“inflation”Search All-EnPress Publisher LLC.

Aug 22, 2024

Determining factors for tourist arrivals in Hungary

This methodologically focused study examines the relationships between inflation and unemployment rates, political stability, and tourism, with particular emphasis on the impacts on tourist arrivals in Hungary. The research aims to uncover the direct and indirect influences of these macroeconomic indicators on the volume of tourism, specifically international tourist arrivals. The significance of the study lies in the clear correlation between economic stability and labor market conditions with tourism volume, where rising inflation and unemployment rates negatively correlate with the number of tourist arrivals. This relationship is further strengthened by the observation that improvements in political stability enhance tourist numbers over the long term, while political instability, such as conflicts and terrorist acts, negatively affects tourism demand. These correlations are crucial for aligning tourism policy with economic policy, as macroeconomic indicators and the political environment directly influence both domestic and foreign tourists’ willingness to travel. The research methodology focuses on forecasting using Random Forest and neural networks, which enables more accurate predictions of tourism volume and supports informed tourism policy-making. The findings indicate that the development of the tourism sector is closely linked to economic growth and underscore the necessity of boosting tourism to expand employment and maintain economic stability.

Abstract

Download PDF(595.10KB)

XML

1

102

Jan 7, 2025

Old-new enemy on the horizon? New factors for measuring inflation in Visegrad countries consumer baskets

The impact of inflation on the economy cannot be ignored as it can affect it either positively or negatively. This is because inflation has a broad impact on the macroeconomy, such as economic growth, competitiveness and the distribution of wealth. Therefore, the way in which it is measured also requires particular attention. Our hypothesis is that the weights of the consumer baskets measuring inflation in the Central European countries (Visegrad countries: Poland, Slovakia, Czech Republic and Hungary) change dynamically under the influence of modern causes of inflation and we assume that the composition of the inflation baskets moves together due to the similar economic environment. The Visegrad countries (V4), consisting of Poland, Hungary, Czechia, and Slovakia, were selected for this study due to their unique position as a loose economic and political alliance within the European Union. While geographically close, these countries have different economic structures and policy responses, making them an interesting case for comparative analysis. Despite their proximity, it cannot be assumed that inflationary trends will develop similarly across these nations. This underexplored region presents an opportunity to examine how diverse macroeco-nomic factors shape inflation, adding valuable insights to the existing literature. In this study, we do not focus on comparing overall inflation trends between countries, but rather on examining the trends in the changes within the inflation baskets. The aim is to analyze how the composition of goods and services contributing to inflation shifts over time in each country, rather than simply looking at inflation rates. This approach allows us to explore deeper insights into the specific components driving inflationary pressures in the Visegrad countries, highlighting how the importance of certain goods and services evolves within the inflation basket across different economic environments. The weights of the consumer baskets measuring inflation are taken from the Inter-national Monetary Fund 2012–2022 data. We used the Kruskal-Wallis test to determine whether there are statistically significant differences between countries' consumer basket weights. Our results suggest that the inflation baskets of the four countries do not move significantly together, so there are significant differences in consumption patterns across nations regardless of geographical proximity. Also, contrary to our preliminary expectations, global megatrends such as demographic change, digitalisation and climate change have not yet had a significant impact on the weightings in the consumption baskets of the V4 countries. Therefore, these will require increased attention and preparation in the near future, as even if prices remain unchanged, measured inflation could change significantly across countries as weights shift.

Abstract

Download PDF(438.63KB)

XML

2

99

Oct 10, 2024

Negative effects of casualisation in Sokoto, Nigeria’s banking sector

Contract workers are the direct victims of casualization but beyond that, the effects they suffer transcend to their families and the larger society. The study examined the effects of casualization on the contract workers of banks in Sokoto, Nigeria. The primary methods of gathering data for the study were in-depth and key informant interviews, with sixty individuals who were specifically chosen. Following content analysis, the gathered data were presented narratively with verbatim quotations. According to the study, there are a number of negative effects of casualization, such as low wages that contribute to a low standard of living and the inability of employees and their families to adequately meet their basic needs, the arbitrary termination of casual employees without cause, and the lack of a claim for work-related injuries or diseases in the event of an accident or death. The overall inference is that the temporary employees are working in appallingly subpar conditions. The study suggests that in order to raise the living standards of their temporary employees, banks should provide welfare packages. Additionally, because inflation is on the rise, contract employees’ compensation should be reviewed upward.

Abstract

Download PDF(405.53KB)

XML

0

97

Aug 16, 2024

The relationship between stock market and inflation in the period of COVID-19 and Ukrainian war: Evidence from Greece

This study explores the interactions between inflation and stock market. We carried out a bibliometric analysis with R package to highlight the worldwide research trends in the field, covering the period of three crises (financial, health crisis and war of Ukraine). Next, using monthly data for the period from 1 March 2020 to 31 August 2023 and based on a vector autoregressive model, impulse response and variance decomposition are performed to explore the dynamic relationships between inflation and Greek stock market. The results reveal the existence of high volatility in Athens’ stock market during COVID-19 pandemic, owning to a shock of the inflation. Regarding the period of Ukrainian war, the study verified the Fama’s hypothesis that there is a negative relationship between inflation and stock returns. The findings have significant implications for investors and policy makers.

Abstract

Download PDF(502.96KB)

XML

2

96

Aug 1, 2024

Examining the impact of multidimensional economic factors on performance: Evidence from the Tunisian insurance companies

This paper aims to investigate the determinants of performance for insurance companies in Tunisia from 2004 to 2017. Namely, we consider three dimensions of determinants; those related to firms’ microenvironment, macroenvironment and meso or industry environment. The performance of insurance companies is measured using three criteria: Return On Assets (ROA), Return On Equity (ROE), and Combined Ratio. The independent variables are categorized into three groups: microeconomic variables (Firm Size, Financial leverage, Capital management risk, Volume of capital, and Age of the firm), meso-economic variables (Concentration ratio and Insurance Sector Size), and macroeconomic variables (Inflation, Unemployment, and Population Growth). The General Least Squares (GLS) regression technique is employed for the analysis. The study reveals that the financial performance of Tunisian insurance companies is positively influenced by firm size, capital amount, and risk capital management. On the other hand, it is negatively influenced by leverage level, industry size, concentration index, inflation, and unemployment. In terms of technical performance, the capital amount of the firm, industry size, age of the firm, and population growth have a positive impact. However, firm size, leverage, concentration index, and risk capital management negatively affect technical performance. This paper contributes to the existing literature by examining the determinants of performance specifically for insurance companies in Tunisia. Besides the classical proxies of performance, this paper has the originality of using the technical performance which is the most suitable for the case of Insurance companies.

Abstract

Download PDF(558.60KB)

XML

3

93

Dec 13, 2024

The economic consequences of inflation on the dynamics of business environment in central Europe

The following study delves into the influence of inflation on the creation and closed businesses in specific Central European nations, namely Slovakia, Poland, Germany, the Czech Republic, and Romania, spanning from 2014 to 2021 by the use of annual data. Through a panel regression data analyze approach, the research delineates the correlation between inflation rates and entrepreneurial endeavors. The findings reveal a statistically significant positive impact of inflation on the inception of new businesses, with Germany exhibiting the most robust correlation. This suggests that inflationary pressures can serve as encouragement for entrepreneurial activities. Conversely, the study uncovers a positive yet less pronounced association between inflation and business closures, particularly notable in Poland, where heightened inflation contributes to an elevated rate of business discontinuation. These results suggest that, while inflation can spur the establishment of new businesses, it may also precipitate instability and an increased likelihood of business closure in less resilient economies. The research furnishes valuable insights for policymakers by underscoring the necessity of accounting for inflationary trends when formulating policies aimed at cultivating a supportive climate for businesses. Subsequent research should encompass supplementary macroeconomic variables and broaden the timeframe to yield a more comprehensive comprehension of the interplay between inflation and business dynamics in the region.

Abstract

Download PDF(809.07KB)

XML

0

92