The nexus of infrastructure spending, public debt and inflation shaping the South African economy

Daniel F. Meyer

doi:10.24294/jipd10284

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The nexus of infrastructure spending, public debt and inflation shaping the South African economy

Daniel F. Meyer

Journal of Infrastructure Policy and Development 2025, 9(2), 10284; https://doi.org/10.24294/jipd10284

Submitted：13 Nov 2024

Accepted：28 Nov 2024

Published：11 Feb 2025

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Abstract

This study investigated the influence of infrastructure spending, government debt, and inflation on GDP in South Africa from 1995 to 2023. Motivated by the need for sustainable growth amid fiscal and inflationary pressures, this research addresses gaps in understanding how these factors shape economic performance. The primary objective was to assess these variables’ individual and combined effects on GDP and offer policy recommendations. Using an ARDL model, the study explored long- and short-term relationships among the variables. Results indicate that infrastructure spending positively impacts GDP, promoting long-term growth, while government debt hinders GDP in both short and long runs. Moderate inflation supports growth, but excessive inflation poses risks. These findings imply the need for targeted infrastructure investments, strict debt management practices, and inflation control measures to sustain economic stability and growth. Policy recommendations include expanding public investment in productive infrastructure, implementing fiscal rules to prevent unsustainable debt levels, and maintaining inflation within a controlled range. Ultimately, these policies could help South Africa build a resilient, balanced economy that addresses both immediate growth needs and long-term stability.

Keywords

Computing Ability

JEL Codes

E02; H50

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