This study aims to evaluate the relationship between financial resilience, exchange rate, inflation, and economic growth from 1996 to 2022 using secondary data from the World Bank. The analysis method uses vector autoregressive to understand the causality dynamics between these variables. The results show that past economic growth positively impacts current economic conditions, but an increase in the exchange rate can hinder economic growth. The exchange rate also tends to be influenced by previous values, but high economic growth does not always increase the exchange rate. Previous conditions significantly affect financial resilience and can be strengthened by a strong currency. Meanwhile, inflation has an inverse relationship with economic growth, where past inflation seems to suppress current inflation, which price stabilization policies can cause. From an institutional economics perspective, this study provides an understanding of the interaction between various economic factors in the structural framework and policies that regulate economic activities. The impulse response function (IRF) shows that economic growth can react strongly to sudden changes, although this reaction may not last long. The exchange rate fluctuates with economic changes, reflecting market optimism and uncertainty. Financial resilience may be strong initially but may weaken over time, indicating the need for policies to strengthen the financial system to ensure economic stability. Furthermore, the role of social capital in economic resilience is highlighted as it can amplify the positive effects of a robust institutional framework by fostering trust and collaboration among economic actors. Inflation reacts differently to economic changes, challenging policymakers to balance growth and price stability. Overall, the IRF provides insights into how economic variables interact with each other and react to sudden changes, albeit with some uncertainty in the estimates. The forecast error decomposition variance (FEVD) analysis in this study reveals that internal factors initially influence economic growth, but over time, external factors such as the exchange rate, financial resilience, and inflation come into play. The exchange rate, which was initially volatile due to internal factors, becomes increasingly influenced by economic growth, indicating a close relationship between the economy and the foreign exchange market. From an institutional economics perspective, financial resilience, which was initially stable due to internal factors, becomes increasingly dependent on global economic conditions, suggesting the importance of a solid institutional framework for maintaining economic stability. In addition, inflation, which was initially explained by economic growth and exchange rates, has gradually become more influenced by financial resilience, indicating the importance of effective monetary policy in controlling inflation. This study highlights the importance of understanding how economic variables influence each other for effective economic governance. Integrating institutional economics and social capital perspectives provides a comprehensive framework for enhancing financial resilience and promoting sustainable economic development in Indonesia.
To fight inflation, European Central Bank (ECB) announced 10 successive interest rate hikes, starting on 27 July 2022, igniting an unprecedented widening of interest rate spreads in the euro area (ΕΑ). Greek banks, however, recorded among the highest interest rate spreads, far exceeding ΕΑ median and weighted average. Indeed, we document a strong asymmetric response of Greek banks to ECB interest rate hikes, with loan interest rates rising immediately, whilst deposit interest rates remained initially unchanged and then rose sluggishly. As a result, the interest rate spread hit one historical record after another. Greek systemic banks, probably taking advantage of the high concentration and low competition in the domestic sector benefited from key ECB interest rate hikes, recording gigantic increases in net interest income (NII), and consequently, substantial profits (almost €7.4 billion in the 2022–2023 biennium). Such excessive accumulation of profits (that deteriorates the living conditions of consumers) by the banking system could be called the inflation of “banking greed”, or bankflation. This new source of inflation created by the oligopolistic structure of the Greek banking sector counterworks the very reason for ECB interest rate increases and requires certain policy analysis recommendations in coping with it.
The study examines the factors shaping inflation in 2022–2023 and explores why inflation in the Hungarian economy has increased more sharply than in neighboring countries with similar structures. The research hypothesis suggests that the inflationary surge, which is notable both globally and within the European Union, is not solely due to market economy mechanisms, but also to specific circumstances in Hungary, including the state’s radical interventions aimed at curbing inflation. The study seeks to highlight these effects and provide recommendations for economic policymakers to develop a more resilient inflation policy. Additionally, it focuses on analyzing inflation in the agricultural sector. The results indicate that, alongside global inflationary pressures, several country-specific factors have driven up the inflation rate in Hungary. Energy prices have risen sharply, and some supply chains from the East have been disrupted. The country under study is less productive, and the impact of the energy price shock on the energy-intensive food industry is higher than in surrounding countries. Consequently, the exchange rate volatility in 2022–2023, combined with short- and medium-term factors, has had a significant impact on food inflation, causing substantial deviations from long-term equilibrium. The research concludes that, in addition to increasing food self-sufficiency, special attention should be given to the domestic development of the agricultural supply chain.
This paper aims to show the crisis of contemporary criminal systems, however legislative excess of stipulating the penalty of imprisonment, as a penalty depriving freedom, while sometimes stipulating the penalty of imprisonment is mandatory, rather combining it with other penalties, and more than that, depriving the judge of his discretionary power in determining the punishment, this threatens the theory of individualized punishment in a fatal way, so as a result, prisons are overcrowded with inmates, which places a heavy burden on the state from an economic perspective that exhausts and drains its budget, while there is also a social cost of the prison sentence, paid by the prisoner’s family and close circle, moreover the greatest cost is the failure of the penal system to perform its role towards the prisoner by reforming and rehabilitating, therefore, this paper focuses on presenting the causes of the problem and its negative repercussions, trying to find some solutions, by presenting alternatives to the prison sentence, while expanding the view to include some criminal systems, such as the Islamic criminal system and its decision on the penalty of exile.
This study analyzes the influence of five primary factors—inflation, capital ratio, deposits, non-performing loans, and bank size—on the performance of banks in Vietnam. Our sample encompasses 26 commercial banks from 2014 to 2023. The analysis incorporates data sourced from commercial banks’ financial statements and annual reports. Our findings indicate that banks with higher capital ratios and sizes generally exhibit superior performance. Moreover, inflation positively influences the performance of Vietnamese commercial banks throughout the selected timeframe. In contrast, non-performing loans and deposits are inverse to bank performance. Our findings offer novel insights into the factors influencing bank performance in a growing economy like Vietnam, along with recommendations for Vietnamese commercial banks and the State Bank of Vietnam to implement effective methods to improve bank performance.
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