Fire hazard is often mapped as a static conditional probability of fire characteristics’ occurrence. We developed a dynamic product for operational risk management to forecast the probability of occurrence of fire radiative power in the locally possible near-maximum fire intensity range. We applied standard machine learning techniques to remotely sensed data. We used a block maxima approach to sample the most extreme fire radiative power (FRP) MODIS retrievals in free-burning fuels for each fire season between 2001 and 2020 and associated weather, fuel, and topography features in northwestern south America. We used the random forest algorithm for both classification and regression, implementing the backward stepwise repression procedure. We solved the classification problem predicting the probability of occurrence of near-maximum wildfire intensity with 75% recall out-of-sample in ten annual test sets running time series cross validation, and 77% recall and 85% ROC-AUC out-of-sample in a twenty-fold cross-validation to gauge a realistic expectation of model performance in production. We solved the regression problem predicting FRP with 86% r² in-sample, but out-of-sample performance was unsatisfactory. Our model predicts well fatal and near-fatal incidents reported in Peru and Colombia out-of-sample in mountainous areas and unimodal fire regimes, the signal decays in bimodal fire regimes.

In this paper, we assess the results of experiment with different machine learning algorithms for the data classification on the basis of accuracy, precision, recall and F1-Score metrics. We collected metrics like Accuracy, F1-Score, Precision, and Recall: From the Neural Network model, it produced the highest Accuracy of 0.129526 also highest F1-Score of 0.118785, showing that it has the correct balance of precision and recall ratio that can pick up important patterns from the dataset. Random Forest was not much behind with an accuracy of 0.128119 and highest precision score of 0.118553 knit a great ability for handling relations in large dataset but with slightly lower recall in comparison with Neural Network. This ranked the Decision Tree model at number three with a 0.111792, Accuracy Score while its Recall score showed it can predict true positives better than Support Vector Machine (SVM), although it predicts more of the positives than it actually is a majority of the times. SVM ranked fourth, with accuracy of 0.095465 and F1-Score of 0.067861, the figure showing difficulty in classification of associated classes. Finally, the K-Neighbors model took the 6th place, with the predetermined accuracy of 0.065531 and the unsatisfactory results with the precision and recall indicating the problems of this algorithm in classification. We found out that Neural Networks and Random Forests are the best algorithms for this classification task, while K-Neighbors is far much inferior than the other classifiers.

New technologies always have an impact on traditional theories. Finance theories are no exception to that. In this paper, we have concentrated on the traditional investment theories in finance. The study examined five investment theories, their assumptions, and their limitation from different works of literature. The study considered Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) as representative of financial technology (fintech) and tried to find out from the literature how these new technologies help to reduce the limitations of traditional theories. We have found that fintech does not have an equal impact on every conventional finance theory. Fintech outperforms all five traditional theories but on a different scale.

The goal of this work was to create and assess machine-learning models for estimating the risk of budget overruns in developed projects. Finding the best model for risk forecasting required evaluating the performance of several models. Using a dataset of 177 projects took into account variables like environmental risks employee skill level safety incidents and project complexity. In our experiments, we analyzed the application of different machine learning models to analyze the risk for the management decision policies of developed organizations. The performance of the chosen model Neural Network (MLP) was improved after applying the tuning process which increased the Test R² from −0.37686 before tuning to 0.195637 after tuning. The Support Vector Machine (SVM), Ridge Regression, Lasso Regression, and Random Forest (Tuned) models did not improve, as seen when Test R² is compared to the experiments. No changes in Test R²’s were observed on GBM and XGBoost, which retained same Test R² across different tuning attempts. Stacking Regressor was used only during the hyperparameter tuning phase and brought a Test R² of 0. 022219.Decision Tree was again the worst model among all throughout the experiments, with no signs of improvement in its Test R²; it was −1.4669 for Decision Tree in all experiments arranged on the basis of Gender. These results indicate that although, models such as the Neural Network (MLP) sees improvements due to hyperparameter tuning, there are minimal improvements for most models. This works does highlight some of the weaknesses in specific types of models, as well as identifies areas where additional work can be expected to deliver incremental benefits to the structured applied process of risk assessment in organizational policies.

The paper considers an important problem of the successful development of social qualities in an individual using machine learning methods. Social qualities play an important role in forming personal and professional lives, and their development is becoming relevant in modern society. The paper presents an overview of modern research in social psychology and machine learning; besides, it describes the data analysis method to identify factors influencing success in the development of social qualities. By analyzing large amounts of data collected from various sources, the authors of the paper use machine learning algorithms, such as Kohonen maps, decision tree and neural networks, to identify relationships between different variables, including education, environment, personal characteristics, and the development of social skills. Experiments were conducted to analyze the considered datasets, which included the introduction of methods to find dependencies between the input and output parameters. Machine learning introduction to find factors influencing the development of individual social qualities has varying dependence accuracy. The study results could be useful for both practical purposes and further scientific research in social psychology and machine learning. The paper represents an important contribution to understanding the factors that contribute to the successful development of individual social skills and could be useful in the development of programs and interventions in this area. The main objective of the research was to study the functionalities of the machine learning algorithms and various models to predict the students’s success in learning.

This study meticulously explores the crucial elements precipitating corporate failures in Taiwan during the decade from 1999 to 2009. It proposes a new methodology, combining ANOVA and tuning the parameters of the classification so that its functional form describes the data best. Our analysis reveals the ten paramount factors, including Return on Capital ROA(C) before interest and depreciation, debt ratio percentage, consistent EPS across the last four seasons, Retained Earnings to Total Assets, Working Capital to Total Assets, dependency on borrowing, ratio of Current Liability to Assets, Net Value Per Share (B), the ratio of Working Capital to Equity, and the Liability-Assets Flag. This dual approach enables a more precise identification of the most instrumental variables in leading Taiwanese firms to bankruptcy based only on financial rather than including corporate governance variable. By employing a classification methodology adept at addressing class imbalance, we substantiate the significant influence these factors had on the incidence of bankruptcy among Taiwanese companies that rely solely on financial parameters. Thus, our methodology streamlines variable selection from 95 to 10 critical factors, improving bankruptcy prediction accuracy and outperforming Liang's 2016 results.