As a key factor in the macroeconomic process, the interaction between public confidence and the commodity market, especially its impact on commodity facilitation returns and macroeconomic linkages, is worth exploring in depth. This study adopts the TVP-SV-VAR model to analyze the causal linkages, dynamic characteristics, and mechanisms of the interaction, and reveals the following core findings: (1) The economic background and information shocks contribute to the variations in the effects and orientations of the economic variables, which highlight the time-varying nature of the economic interactions. (2) Consumer and investor confidence exert heterogeneous influence on the macroeconomy, and their different responses to the negative effect of interest rates and convenience gains are particularly significant in the post-crisis recovery period. (3) In the short-term perspective, the influence of public confidence on monetary policy and inflation exceeds that in the medium and long term, highlighting the immediate sensitivity of individual economic behavior. (4) Since 2015, accommodative monetary policy has accelerated market capital flows, delaying the interaction between confidence indices and inflation, revealing policy time lag effects. (5) Convenience gains exhibit complex time-varying interactions with key economic parameters (interest rates, commodity prices, and inflation), with 2011 and 2014 displaying particular patterns, mapping differences between short- and long-term mechanisms, respectively. The study highlights the central role of consumer and investor confidence in the precise tailoring of macroeconomic policies, providing a scientific basis for policy forecasting and economic regulation, and contributing to economic stability. Meanwhile, the dynamic evolution of consumer confidence deepens market trend foresight, enhances the precision of market participants’ decision-making, and reinforces the resilience and predictability of economic operations.
Finance is the core of the modern economy and the bloodline of the real economy; adherence to the people-centered value orientation and the financial services of the real economy as the fundamental purpose is an important connotation of the road of economic development with Chinese characteristics. Financial work is distinctly political and people-oriented, and must consciously practice the concept of the people, serve agricultural and rural development and farmers to increase their income and contribute to the common prosperity of farmers and rural areas. This study is based on the key factors affecting the multidimensional poverty of rural households—external rural financial resources availability and internal rural household entrepreneurship, rural household risk resilience, and rural household financial capability joint analysis. Based on financial exclusion theory, financial inclusion theory, poverty trap theory, and financial literacy theory, to build a logical framework between the rural financial resources availability, farmers’ financial capability, farmers’ entrepreneurship, farmers’ risk management capability, and farmers’ poverty, and then empirically explore the optimization mechanism of poverty reduction for farmers, and analyze the heterogeneity of the financial resources availability, to reduce the return to poverty caused by the lack of entrepreneurial motivation and the low level of risk resilience of rural households. The study aims to improve the farmers’ financial capability and promote sustainable and high-quality development of rural households. In this study, we modeled financial resource availability and rural household poverty using structural equations and surveyed rural households using a scale questionnaire. It was found that financial resource availability significantly affects rural household risk resilience, farmers’ entrepreneurship, and rural household poverty and that rural household risk resilience significance mediates the relationship between financial resource availability and rural household poverty, financial capability plays a significant moderating role. However, the mediating effect of farmers’ entrepreneurship on the availability of financial resources and farmers’ poverty is insignificant. Here, we put forward corresponding countermeasures and recommendations: guiding the allocation of financial resources to key areas and weak links; optimizing financial services; and building a long-term mechanism.
The fear of ghosts is a common thing that can be managed as a social condition that turns out to have an impact on the continuity of forest maintenance. Applying a qualitative approach supported by in-depth interview methods, observation, and literature study. This research does not attempt to prove the existence of ghosts or discuss the psychological conditions of people who fear ghosts. The main finding of this research is the reality of the reproduction of stories and experiences of fear of ghosts, as well as the implementation of traditions or rituals related to community activities in the forest. Stories of fear of ghosts with various forms and versions of naming not only enrich the cultural life of the community but also encourage social conditioning in the form of togetherness to agree on the fear of ghosts as a means of creating a social system in order to carry out activities in the forest. The social system is identified in the form of pamali traditions or things that should not be done in the forest, balian rituals to eliminate or treat ghost disturbances, and besoyong rituals to utilize forest products, which then have an impact on the awareness to respect the continuity of these rituals and tradition. So, even though the fear of ghosts can be overcome psychologically and disappear quickly, the reality of respect for the social system related to the forest can still survive. In addition, ghost stories’ reproduction continues to be rolled out and adapted to the times. In turn, ghosts and forest rituals continue to be conditioned into a social system that has implications for forest conservation.
With the rapid development of global e-commerce, cross-border e-commerce has become an important force in promoting international trade and economic globalization. Due to the rapid development of cross-border e-commerce, the number of online disputes is gradually increasing. These disputes demonstrate their complexity and diversity in terms of legal application, evidence acquisition, and enforcement. Tmall Global is a cross-border e-commerce platform under the Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba Group. This study takes Tmall Global as an example to analyze the characteristics of disputes on this platform and explore the current situation of online disputes in cross-border e-commerce. Drawing on the experience of online dispute resolution in the European Union, ASEAN, and other regions, this article proposes a series of suggestions to improve China’s cross-border e-commerce online dispute resolution mechanism, including enhancing the platform’s own dispute resolution capabilities, strengthening international cooperation and artificial intelligence, optimizing dispute resolution processes using large data and cloud computing, strengthening consumer rights protection, and optimizing legal and regulatory frameworks. The aim is to provide an effective dispute resolution mechanism for China’s cross-border e-commerce platforms and provide useful reference for other countries.
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