Relying on the D-Vine copula model, this paper delves into the hedging capabilities of Brent crude oil against the exchange rate of oil-exporting and oil-importing nations. The results affirm Brent crude oil’s role as a safeguard and a refuge against the fluctuations of major currencies. Furthermore, we reaffirm that oil retains its robust hedging and safe-haven attributes during times of crisis, with currency co-movements across all countries exhibiting greater correlation than during the entire dataset. Additionally, our empirical findings highlight an unusually positive correlation between Brent crude oil and the Russian exchange rate during the Russia-Ukraine conflict, demonstrating that oil functions as a less effective hedge and a less dependable refuge for the Russian exchange rate in such geopolitical turbulence.
The impact of crude oil price fluctuations on the real effective exchange rate (REER) has been widely debated, but specific evidence, particularly for developing countries in Southeast Asia, is scarce and inconclusive. This issue, especially concerning both short- and long-term relationships, remains inadequately addressed, affecting these countries for risk management related to oil price fluctuations. This study aims to fill this gap by examining these relationships in Thailand context to provide more evidence on how the REER in Southeast Asia responds to changes in crude oil prices. Monthly data of crude oil prices in Dubai market and the Thai baht REER from 2000 to 2019 were employed. Johansen co-integration test and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) were used for analyzing long-term and short-term relationships, respectively. The results indicate a significant negative long-term relationship between crude oil prices and the REER, with a 0.31% reduction in the REER for every 1% increase in the real price of oil. However, in the short term, VECM analysis reveals significant movements in the REER in response to external shocks. On average from 2000–2019, the significant fluctuations in the REER are quickly alleviated and adjusted to its long-run equilibrium, typically by 2% in the following month following external shocks such as crude oil price fluctuations. Given these findings, which highlight the long-term relationship between the REER and crude oil prices and its short-term adjustment, it is suggested that when there is a shock from the crude oil prices, the government can strengthen short-term oil price controls or monetary subsidies to mitigate the extensive repercussions of energy market fluctuations, as such interventions would have a lesser impact on the long-term equilibrium of the REER.
This study examines the aggregate consumption function of Saudi Arabia from 2000 to 2022, focusing on identifying key determinants of household consumption and evaluating the impacts of disposable income, household wealth, government expenditure, interest rates, and oil revenues. the research uses advanced econometric methods, including the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model and Johansen cointegration test, to analyze the relationships among these variables. the findings reveal that disposable income, household wealth, and government expenditure significantly and positively influence consumption, whereas interest rates show a negative correlation. oil revenues also play a critical role, reflecting the country’s economic reliance on oil. the study highlights the necessity for economic diversification to reduce the impact of oil price volatility on household income and consumption stability. The results offer crucial insights for policymakers, emphasizing the need for strategies that enhance household income and wealth, maintain robust public sector spending, and effectively manage interest rates. these findings also support the importance of consistent and predictable income sources for sustaining consumption. additionally, this study suggests directions for future research, including developing sophisticated forecasting models to predict consumption trends and exploring other influencing factors such as demographic shifts and technological progress.
Afforestation is a main tool for preventing desertification and soil erosion in arid and semiarid regions of Iran. Large-scale afforestation, however, has poorly understood consequences for the future ecosystems in the term of ecosystems protection. The objective of the present study is to identify changes in soil properties following different intervals of planting of Ailanthus altissima (tree of heaven) in semiarid afforestation of Iran (Chitgar Forest Park, Tehran). For this purpose, sand, silt and clay ratios, bulk density, soil moisture, pH, electrical conductivity, phosphorus, potassium, magnesium, calcium, sodium, total soil N, and total carbon was measured. Our study highlighted the potential of the invasive trees by A. altissima, to alter soil properties along chronosequence. Almost all soil quality attributes showed a declining trend with stand age. A continuous decline in soil quality indicated that the present land management may not be sustainable. Therefore, an improved management practice is imperative to sustain soil quality and maintain long-term productivity of plantation forests. Thinning activity will be required to reduce the number of trees competing for the same nutrients especially in a older stand to protect forest soils.
Blockchain technology is poised to significantly transform the corporate world, heralding a new era of innovation and efficiency. Over the past few years, its impact has been noted by leaders, academics, and government representatives around the globe this growing interest underscores businesses’ need to evolve and reconsider traditional operational models. To remain competitive, organizations must embrace this change. Before introducing such ground-breaking technology, it is crucial to assess the motivations of primary stakeholders concerning its implementation. This study looks into what influences the use of Blockchain technology in the oil and gas sector, primarily using a quantitative survey of Iraqi oil and gas companies. A questionnaire was distributed among 250 top-level managers, senior executives, project managers, and IT managers for analyzing the data, the study employs the Structural Equation Modelling-Partial Least Squares (SEM-PLS) technique, with Smart PLS for data processing. The findings suggest that the intention to utilise blockchain technology is influenced by one’s attitude towards it. Competitive pressure (environmental factors), functional benefit, and privacy/security (technological factors) significantly affect blockchain adoption intention. Nevertheless, there was no discernible correlation between regulatory backing and the desire to use Blockchain. Additionally, cost concern and perceived risk (organizational factors) two factors contribute negatively to the perception of blockchain technology. Besides the direct relationship, the findings revealed that attitude toward blockchain technology mediate the relationship between cost concern, perceived risk, and intention to adopt Blockchain. Built upon the Technology-Organization-Environment (TOE) model and the Theory of Reasoned Action, this research offers a comprehensive framework for investigating the intention to adopt blockchain technology. The results enhance both theoretical understanding and practical implementation by providing valuable insights into the emerging area of blockchain adoption intentions.
This study investigates the impact of extreme rainfall events on soil erosion in the downstream Parnaíba River Basin, located in the Brazilian Cerrado. The analysis focused on rainfall erosivity (R factor) and soil erodibility (K factor) as key indicators. The average erosivity in the region was 9051 MJ mm h−1ha−1year−1, with a variation between 7943 and 10,081 MJ mm h−1ha−1year−1, suggesting a high erosive potential, mainly in the rainiest months, from December to April. The soils of the studied area, mainly Ultisols and Chernosols, present high to very high erodibility, with K factor values ranging from 0.025 to 0.050 t h MJ−1 mm−1. Furthermore, fieldwork revealed areas, near highways, with apparently fragile soils, as well as rills and gullies, identified through photographs taken during fieldwork. These locations, due to the combination of high erosivity and susceptible soils, were considered prone to the occurrence of erosion processes, representing an additional risk to local infrastructure. The spatialization of R and K factors, along with field observations, showed that much of the area is at high risk of erosion and landslides, particularly in regions with greater topographic variability and proximity to water bodies. These results provide a basis for the development of mitigation strategies, being important for the effective prevention of landslides.
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