Aiming at the problem of incompatibility of biomass models of forest organs, taking Chinese fir in Fujian Jiangle State-owned Forest Farm as the research object, based on selecting the optimal independent model of each organ, the biomass compatibility model of Chinese fir was established with a three-level joint control scheme. The results show that the compatibility equation system based on the whole plant biomass can effectively solve the problem of incompatibility in the whole plant biomass, each sub-biomass and between sub-biomass. Besides, except for the leaf biomass model, all other biomass models have good fitting effect, which is of great significance to the guidance of the analysis of local Chinese fir biomass.
The article investigates trade flows between the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) member-states and Belarus before the upcoming Belarus’ joining the organization. The export flows of the countries are modeled using a power function based on the time data. The results of the qualitative and quantitative analysis of foreign trade between the organization and the Republic of Belarus are presented, as well as the quantitative forecast of the prospects open to Belarus in connection with its joining the organization based on three original scenarios using econometric models. The results of the study show that Belarus has certain promising sectors of foreign economic activity, which can contribute to an increase in income from trade. It was found that the integration of the country will have a positive effect on increasing the volume of trade turnover with the participating countries, while in order to maintain sustainable economic growth of the country, domestic development of production should remain a priority, as evidenced by the obtained parameter estimates for the factors. An assessment of potential economic effects can be used to make a decision on whether a country should join an international organization. In particular, based on the assessments in our study in trade with Russia the expected increase in Belarus exports upon joining the Shanghai Cooperation Organization will constitute an increase of nearly 5%, exports to Kazakhstan are expected to increase by almost 75%, and to India and China by almost 90%. In the context of reshaping of international associations and organizations, the problems and issues raised in the study become even more relevant.
The Cisadane Watershed is in a critical state, which has expanded residential areas upstream of Cisadane. Changes in land use and cover can impact a region's hydrological characteristics. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a hydrological model that can simulate the hydrological characteristics of the watershed affected by land use. This study aims to evaluate the impact of land use change on the hydrological characteristics of the Cisadane watershed using SWAT under different land use scenarios. The models were calibrated and validated, and the results showed satisfactory agreement between observed and simulated streamflow. The main river channel is based on the results of the watershed delineation process, with the watershed boundary consisting of 85 sub-watersheds. The hydrological characteristics showed that the maximum flow rate (Q max) was 12.30 m3/s, and the minimum flow rate (Q min) was 5.50 m3/s. The study area's distribution of future land use scenarios includes business as usual (BAU), protecting paddy fields (PPF), and protecting forest areas (PFA). The BAU scenario had the worst effect on hydrological responses due to the decreasing forests and paddy fields. The PFA scenario yielded the most favourable hydrological response, achieving a notable reduction from the baseline BAU in surface flow, lateral flow, and groundwater by 2%, 7%, and 2%, respectively. This was attributed to enhanced water infiltration, alongside increases in water yield and evapotranspiration of 3% and 15%, respectively. l Therefore, it is vital to maintain green vegetation and conserve land to support sustainable water availability.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a vital gauge of economic performance, reflecting fluctuations in the costs of goods, services, and other commodities essential to consumers. It is a cornerstone measure used to evaluate inflationary trends within an economy. In Saudi Arabia, forecasting the Consumer Price Index (CPI) relies on analyzing CPI data from 2013 to 2020, structured as an annual time series. Through rigorous analysis, the SARMA (0,1,0) (12,0,12) model emerges as the most suitable approach for estimating this dataset. Notably, this model stands out for its ability to accurately capture seasonal variations and autocorrelation patterns inherent in the CPI data. An advantageous feature of the chosen SARMA model is its self-sufficiency, eliminating the need for supplementary models to address outliers or disruptions in the data. Moreover, the residuals produced by the model adhere closely to the fundamental assumptions of least squares principles, underscoring the precision of the estimation process. The fitted SARMA model demonstrates stability, exhibiting minimal deviations from expected trends. This stability enhances its utility in estimating the average prices of goods and services, thus providing valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders. Utilizing the SARMA (0,1,0) (12,0,12) model enables the projection of future values of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Saudi Arabia for the period from June 2020 to June 2021. The model forecasts a consistent upward trajectory in monthly CPI values, reflecting ongoing economic inflationary pressures. In summary, the findings underscore the efficacy of the SARMA model in predicting CPI trends in Saudi Arabia. This model is a valuable tool for policymakers, enabling informed decision-making in response to evolving economic dynamics and facilitating effective policies to address inflationary challenges.
Law Number 20 of 2003 on the National Education System states that citizens have the right to obtain basic education for children aged seven to fifteen years. In addition, it is also a commitment to the implementation of Grobogan district’s regional regulation No 5 of 2019 on education implementation, especially article 12 related to the obligation of local governments to ensure the implementation of basic education according to their authority. The purpose of this study is to determine the implementation of the basic education management program in Grobogan district; analyze the factors that support and hinder the implementation of the basic education management program in Grobogan district; formulate a model for implementing the basic education management program in Grobogan district. The method used in this research is qualitative. This method was used to analyse the phenomenon of policy implementation of the basic education management program in Grobogan district. The research site was in Grobogan district. The informants are policy actors who know a lot about the basic education program in Grobogan district. The results show that the implementation of the Grobogan district education office’s policy on basic education management consists of three areas, namely (1) equalization and expansion of access to education; (2) improvement of quality, relevance and competitiveness; (3) education governance and accountability. These three areas aim to achieve the national standards of education and the minimum service standards of education.
The telecommunications services market faces essential challenges in an increasingly flexible and customer-adaptable environment. Research has highlighted that the monopolization of the spectrum by one operator reduces competition and negatively impacts users and the general dynamics of the sector. This article aims to present a proposal to predict the number of users, the level of traffic, and the operators’ income in the telecommunications market using artificial intelligence. Deep Learning (DL) is implemented through a Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) as a prediction technique. The database used corresponds to the users, revenues, and traffic of 15 network operators obtained from the Communications Regulation Commission of the Republic of Colombia. The ability of LSTMs to handle temporal sequences, long-term dependencies, adaptability to changes, and complex data management makes them an excellent strategy for predicting and forecasting the telecom market. Various works involve LSTM and telecommunications. However, many questions remain in prediction. Various strategies can be proposed, and continued research should focus on providing cognitive engines to address further challenges. MATLAB is used for the design and subsequent implementation. The low Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) values and the acceptable levels of Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), especially in an environment characterized by high variability in the number of users, support the conclusion that the implemented model exhibits excellent performance in terms of precision in the prediction process in both open-loop and closed-loop.
Copyright © by EnPress Publisher. All rights reserved.